The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Monday, 5 August a.d. 2013 Browse the commentary archive

Dumb comes in all sizes, and in all degrees of wealth. And when you get too smart, you fall all the way around the dial to "Hard Crab Stupid."

Against my better judgment, I watched a short video today with Sergey Brin, Google's co-founder who paid for the lab-grown hamburger I decried to y'all a few days ago. On the film was somebody from Harvard opining how good meat was for evolving humans, & how bad for the environment. Ditto the Dutch doctor who committed this lab-crime, and Brin. Dumb, dumb, dumb.

These people don't know sic 'em from come here, nor do they have the sense God gave a screwdriver. Call me Luddite, I don't care, I'll call you deaf, blind, and dumb to the God-breathed glories of creation. In the first place, these self-lobotomized fools believe that cows are evil, cows pass too much gas, cows are messing up the environment. First, termites pass way more gas than cows. Second, the gas doesn't harm a blessed thing anyway -- global warming is warmed over global hogwash. Third, cows contribute far more to an ecosystem than they take out, IF they are left alone to be cows, fed on grass, as God designed them. Fourth, cattle-raising only becomes an ecological threat when done in cruel Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations -- CAFOs -- which, you guessed it, are the creation of the fascist government- corporation partnership that presently occupies America. Agribusiness is not farming: it is ANTI-farming. CAFOs are not animal husbandry or farming, they are an Enlightenment-reductionist attempt to industrialize biology & therefore doomed to fail & pollute while they make billions for corporations.

I'll bet each one of you a nickel that not one of the goofs on that video has ever pushed a forehead into a cow's warm flank on a cold morning and grabbed a teat and heard that steaming milk hiss into the bucket. Or herded cows. Or stepped in cow manure. Or pulled a calf. Or loved an animal. No, a cow is an abstract to them, a cerebral concept, electrons in an agribusiness computer, and that PRECISELY is what's wrong with the modern world. They don't even know what a cow is, but they're all ready to obsolete 'em. Blind to worth, empty of love.

If it was possible to emigrate to Mars, I'd do it so fast it'd make y'all's heads spin. And take my cows with me.


Didn't anything take place today much worth talking about, yet I'm gonna talk about it anyway, because I'm just a natural born fool from Tennessee who don't know to stop when he's ahead, and the less you say, the more ahead you stay.

Stocks have done this: they hit new highs in May, declined into the last part of June and fell out of their intermediate upward channel. But they caught, and began a sharp rally, finally breaking back into that trading channel. They have since clung to that bottom line, scooting barely up, and the in process traded through that uptrend line. Stocks are travelling on Bernanke's newly created money, & nothing else. No economic future.

I saw a chart today with commentary, which, for iron-clad obtuseness, can hardly be equaled. See It's the chart of the Day from It shows a chart of the S&P500 heading up, accompanied by the Bloomberg Consensus US GDP growth forecast. The Bloomberg consensus has been dropping for 2-1/2 years, while the S&P500 has been rising. "Makes almost no sense," the headline says. "Quite the head-scratcher." Oh, mercy, any of y'all could tell 'em that the reason stocks are rising while economic expectations are falling is -- Dah-da-ta-DAH -- Bernanke is printing new money to pump up the stock market, which has become the Fed's and the Administration's latest Potemkin canary in the mine of economic progress. Of course, all of us down here in the mine are asphyxiating, but that's okay. That wooden canary is still chirping away. (Yes, I realize that was outrageous metaphor mixing, but this here writing ain't rocket surgery.)

Dow lost 46.23 (0.3%) today to close at 15,612.13. S&P500 dropped 2.53 (0.15%) to 1,707.14.

I pay more attention to the Dow measured in silver & gold. Dow in gold traded up (drat!) 0.81% to 11.985 oz (G$247.76 gold dollars), and above it's upper downtrend line and its 20 DMA (11.90 oz). See Dow in silver rose 9.21 oz (1.18%) to 792.09 oz, & stopped right at its downtrend line. Already stands above 20 DMA now 783.25 oz. This pushes the envelope, but the roll-over downward remains unbroken.

Currencies are like a 3:00 a.m. bar fight -- you can't be sure who's going to win, & you don't care. US dollar index started sky-diving first of July, and only landed last trading day of July around 81.50. Bounced up off support, only to be stymied by its 50 DMA (82.59). Today it dropped another 10 basis points (0.13%) to end at 81.857, still below the holy grail of 82. Euro is trying to break down but can't quite makes up its mind. Lost another 0.13% today to end at $1.3259, a monument to global gullibility & central bankers' ability to spin believable lies. Yen hit its uptrend line early in July, traded up into an even-sided triangle, broke out upside, then traded back to the uptrend line. Chart is not spectacular for strength, but it shows a breakout with touchback, so its rally remains unbroken, if lukewarm.

Gold lost $8.00 to end at $1,302.60 and silver gave up 19.3 cents to end at 1971c. It was a day full of dozing & snoring. Gold ranged from $1,317.70 to $1,301.52. ("Mama, why'd we bother coming to work today?") Silver ranged 1999.7c to 1968.8c.

Neither performance crossed any lines. Gold must hold on above $1,300. That's what we know, that's what we're watching. It will work higher, UNLESS it breaks that level, then we have more groveling to do.

It's all right, calm down. Bull market is still running, in spite of the April mauling we took. June 27 lows most likely market bottom of the 2011-2013 correction. Y'all have to learn to be patient. Come to think of it, so do I.

On 5 August 1305 William Wallace, Scottish patriot who led resistance to England, was captured near Glasgow and transported to London for trial & execution.

On 5 August 1846 the US & Great Britain signed a treaty dividing the disputed northwestern ("Oregon") territory at the 49th parallel. Part of the treaty required all old hippies to move to Eugene, & they've been there ever since, man.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
5-Aug-13 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,302.60 -8.00 -0.61%
Silver, $/oz 19.71 -0.19 -0.97%
Gold/Silver Ratio 66.088 0.239 0.36%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0151 -0.0001 -0.36%
Platinum 1,447.20 -3.40 -0.23%
Palladium 734.30 5.50 0.75%
S&P 500 1,707.14 2.80 0.16%
Dow 15,612.13 30.34 0.19%
Dow in GOLD $s 247.76 1.99 0.81%
Dow in GOLD oz 11.99 0.10 0.81%
Dow in SILVER oz 792.09 9.21 1.18%
US Dollar Index 81.86 -0.10 -0.12%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,301.70      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,329.04 1,344.01 1,344.01
1/2 AE 0.50 663.36 685.67 1,371.34
1/4 AE 0.25 331.68 349.34 1,397.37
1/10 AE 0.10 136.57 142.54 1,425.36
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,269.55 1,280.55 1,306.41
British sovereign 0.24 308.26 320.26 1,360.49
French 20 franc 0.19 243.03 250.03 1,339.19
Krugerrand 1.00 1,318.62 1,330.62 1,330.62
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,316.70 1,331.70 1,331.70
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 748.48 683.39 1,366.79
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 331.93 348.20 1,392.82
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 137.98 141.89 1,418.85
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,561.48 1,572.46 1,304.19
.9999 bar 1.00 1,306.26 1,317.26 1,317.26
SPOT SILVER: 19.67      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 25.50 28.00 36.60
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 21.50 25.00 32.68
90% silver coin bags 0.72 15,776.48 16,126.48 22.55
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 5,609.43 5,759.43 19.52
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,976.50 2,041.50 20.42
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 197.65 204.15 20.42
1 oz .999 round 1.00 19.77 20.52 20.52
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 20.92 22.67 22.67
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,447.20      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,457.20 1,487.20 1,487.20
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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