The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Thursday, 15 August a.d. 2013 Browse the commentary archive

When my wife looked at the thermometer on our deck this morning it read fifty-eight degrees. In August.

With great delight I saw today the Business Insider Money Game Chart of the Day headlined, "Gold Demand is Evaporating." Data came from the London Bullion Metals Association, Gold Fields Mineral Services, & the World Gold Council. These are the certified Three Stooges of gold forecasting. Haven't gotten anything right yet, although they are "widely respected." Also, presupposition undergirding this -- that a drop in industrial/jewelry demand will sap the future gold price -- doesn't come within two galaxies of correctness. Get this, write it on your eyelids, never forget it: GOLD BULL MARKETS ARE DRIVEN BY MONETARY, NOT INDUSTRIAL, DEMAND. Ditto silver. Next time you hear anybody say otherwise, you know you can stop listening. He doesn't get it.

Why am I delighted? Because these Wrong Way Corrigans always shoot off their press releases at exactly the wrong time. It's like George Bush telling you victory in the war on terror is finally here. This press release virtually guarantees higher gold prices.

Why are media reports about 86% hogwash, other than that the American media continually prostitutes itself to the yankee government and Wall Street? Because they have to find some rationalization for what markets are doing. Other than the fundamentals which move markets slowly & inexorably over time, markets reach within themselves a readiness to move one way or the other. When they do the media, groping for some reason, often misidentify the catalyst as the cause. They do the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy really stunningly.

Of course in the frenzied world where many markets are driven by central bank watching -- and remember, the central bankers themselves have no inkling what they will do -- markets do crazy things. A GOOD (that is, lying) government employment report today raised fears the Fed would stop buying bonds, & accordingly sent stocks & the dollar into a tailspin. Folks, Bernanke can no more taper than a heroin addict can "ease off." Those who live by QE die by QE.

Somebody left the man-hole cover off & stocks stepped in and disappeared. Dow lost 225.47 (1.47%) to 15,112.19 S&P500 tumbled 24.07 (1.43%) to 1,661.32. Oooo. S&P500 GAPPED down. Both sliced clean through their 50 DMA, which now moves my targets to 14,700 & 1,560 for these corrections.

[Loud, long Rebel Yell!] Yes, oh, yes, the Dow in metals sank like your grandpa's false teeth when he leaned over the well & smiled. Dow in gold busted down 2.75% to G$232.86 gold dollars ) or 11.264 oz. Dow in silver fell -- Be still, my beating heart! -- 5.7% or 40.46 oz to close BELOW 700 oz at 668.92. Trend vindicated and confirmed!

Now y'all know why I watch those indicators.

US dollar index dropped 53.1 basis points (0.68%) to 81.178, giving up most of the last week's gains. Ten year treasury note yield shot up 1.59% to 2.755%. Ben, Ben, you're gonna need some Aspirin tonight, and maybe some Scotch. Make it a triple.

Yen & euro both shot back up today, but not in an upward reversal, I think. Rather, both were filling in gaps left behind when they broke down. Yen finished up 0.775 at 102.74 cents/Y100. Euro gained 0.68% to $1.3347. Why would anyone buy any of those three scrofulous, nasty fiat currencies when gold & silver are so cheap?

Long have I waited for the day I could say, "Gold leapt $27.60 (2.07%) to $1,361.60 today while silver outperformed, rising 114.8 cents or 5.27% to 2292.9c."

Silver first. Mercy! Silver leapt clean through all resistance in the 2200 - 2300c range & closed right under 2300c. Now silver is working on the 2480c reaction high after the April attack. Since the measured target for this move is about 2450c, silver should reach 2480c before taking a rest.

Silver is on a tear. Rate of change for 12, 21, and 63 days are all positive - for the first time since February. Silver has risen way above its 20 & 50 DMAs, & the distance between those and the 200 DMA are historically huge, a logical situation for a huge rally.

Silver is leading this rally like Stonewall Jackson fighting up the Shenanadoah Valley. Proving the strength of the rally is the gold/silver ratio, which today fell below 60 to 59.383.

Gold must escape the gravitational pull of $1,350, although it closed above that today. May high for gold was $1,487.20, but the biggest hurdle is $1,500, and beyond that $1,550 where the April debacle began. Next resistance for gold is $1,400. Everything is in place for a huge rally.

Stop waiting. Buy gold and silver.

On 15 August 1864 the Confederate raider CSS Tallahassee captured six yankee ships off New England.

On 15 August 1971 President Richard Nixon reneged on what was left of dollar convertibility into gold by slamming shut the gold window on foreign dollar holders. He also announced a 90 day freeze on wages & prices to halt inflation. Yeah, buddy! That worked to strengthen the dollar. SPECIAL OFFER: Inventory Cleanup

I've been accumulating onesey-twosey some coins I don't regularly stock, so I'm offering them to y'all at the lowest possible rates. Please order by lot number. First come, first served, no re-orders at these prices. Before you order, read the Special Conditions below, please. Spot gold basis for this offer is $1,361.60, spot silver $22.93.

OFFER No. 1.

Eighteen (18) each Austrian Ten coronas, 90% fine gold (21.6 karat) containing 0.0980 troy ounce fine gold. One lot only of 18 at $140.10 each for a total of $2,521.80 plus $35 shipping totals $2,556.80

OFFER No. 2.

Two lots of 22 each Austrian or Dutch one ducats, 98.67% pure gold containing 0.1106 troy ounce fine gold. Lot of 22 each at $159.60 = $3,511.20 +$35 shipping totals $3,546.20

OFFER No. 3.

Eleven each Austrian Philharmonic (one oz. gold, 99.99 fine), at $1,422.50 (4.5% premium over melt) totals $15,647.50 + $35 shipping equals $15,682.50. One lot only.

OFFER No. 4.

Five each South African Two Rands (0.2354 oz, 22 karat) at $332.50 each plus Five each British sovereigns (0.2354 oz, 22 karat) at $342.90 each for a total of $3,377 + $35 shipping totals $3,412.00. One lot only.

OFFER No. 5.

Four each one half Canadian Maple Leaves (0.5000 oz at 99.99% pure gold) at $714.75, plus Five (5) each 1/10 Canadian Maple Leaves at $150.45, plus $35 shipping totals $3,495.80 Only this one lot.

OFFER No. 6.

Twelve (12) each Swiss twenty francs (0.1867 oz gold content at 90% or 21.6 karat) at $269.95 each (6.2% premium) plus $35 shipping totals $3,274.40. Fourteen lots available

OFFER No. 7.

Ten (10) each Swiss twenty francs (0.1867 oz gold content at 21.6 karat) at $269.95 each (6% premium) plus $35 shipping totals $2,734.50. Only one lot of ten pieces.

OFFER No. 8.

Nine (9) each US $5.00 gold commemoratives of various modern types (0.2419 oz gold content at 21.6 karat) at $347.45, plus Two (2) each US $10.00 gold commemoratives (0.4837 troy ounce fine gold content) at $694.90, plus $35 shipping totals $4,551.85. I have only two lots like this.

OFFER No. 9.

Seventy-five (75) each mixed pre-1905, 1921 Morgan, & Peace dollar at $29.90 each, for a total of $2,242.50 plus $35 shipping or $2,277.50. I have only two lots of 75 coins each. All coins grade Very Good or better, no culls, rim dings, etc.

Special Conditions:

First come, first served, and no re-orders at these prices. I will write orders based on the time I receive your e-mail.

We will not take orders for less than the minimum shown above.

All sales on a strict "no-nag" basis. We will ship as soon as your check clears, but we allow Two weeks (14 days) for your check to clear. Calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely and patiently rebuffed.

It increases your chances of getting an order filled if you give me a second choice, e.g., "I want to order One lot of Offer No. 3, but if not available will take One lot of Offer No. 6." ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:

1. You may order by e-mail only to No phone orders, please. Please do NOT order by replying to this email, because it will delay your email.

Your email must include your complete name, address, & phone number. We cannot ship to you without your address. Sorry, we cannot ship outside the United States or to Tennessee.

Repeat, you must include your complete name, address, and phone number. Our clairvoyant quit without warning last week and we can no longer read your mind.

2. When you buy from us, we cannot later change or cancel the trade. We are giving you our word that we will sell at that price, & you are giving us your word that you will buy at that price, regardless what later happens in the market, up or down.

If you break your word to us, we will never again do business with you.

3. Orders are on a first-come, first-served basis until supply is exhausted.

4. "First come, first-served" means that we will enter the orders in the order that we receive them by e-mail.

5. If your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation. If you do not receive a confirmation, your order was not filled.

6. You will need to send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. It just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours.

7. "No Nag Basis" means that we allow fourteen (14) days for personal checks to clear before we ship. Want your order faster? Send a bank wire, but that's not required. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, you'll see your order in about one month if you send a check.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
15-Aug-13 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,361.60 27.60 2.07%
Silver, $/oz 22.93 1.15 5.27%
Gold/Silver Ratio 59.383 -1.863 -3.04%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0168 0.0005 3.14%
Platinum 1,531.40 27.10 1.80%
Palladium 755.95 16.50 2.23%
S&P 500 1,685.39 -8.77 -0.52%
Dow 15,337.66 -113.35 -0.73%
Dow in GOLD $s 232.86 -6.57 -2.75%
Dow in GOLD oz 11.26 -0.32 -2.75%
Dow in SILVER oz 668.92 -40.46 -5.70%
US Dollar Index 81.71 -0.06 -0.07%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,365.50      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,396.91 1,409.88 1,409.88
1/2 AE 0.50 695.90 719.28 1,438.55
1/4 AE 0.25 347.95 366.47 1,465.86
1/10 AE 0.10 143.27 149.52 1,495.22
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,331.77 1,342.77 1,369.89
British sovereign 0.24 323.37 335.37 1,424.67
French 20 franc 0.19 254.94 261.94 1,402.99
Krugerrand 1.00 1,384.62 1,396.62 1,396.62
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,380.50 1,395.50 1,395.50
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 785.16 716.89 1,433.78
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 348.20 365.27 1,461.09
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 144.74 148.84 1,488.40
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,633.08 1,649.38 1,367.99
.9999 bar 1.00 1,370.28 1,381.28 1,381.28
SPOT SILVER: 23.09      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 25.50 28.00 36.60
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 21.50 25.00 32.68
90% silver coin bags 0.72 17,975.10 18,325.10 25.63
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 6,619.80 6,769.80 22.95
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 2,319.00 2,384.00 23.84
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 231.90 238.40 23.84
1 oz .999 round 1.00 23.19 23.94 23.94
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 24.34 26.09 26.09
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,531.40      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,541.40 1,571.40 1,571.40
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

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