The Moneychanger
Weekly Commentary
Friday, 23 August a.d. 2013 Browse the commentary archive
Here's the weekly scorecard:
  16-Aug-13 23-Aug-13 Change % Change
Silver, cents/oz. 2,331.70 2,373.00 41.30 1.8
Gold, dollars/oz. 1,371.70 1,395.70 24.00 1.7
Gold/silver ratio 58.828 58.816 -0.010 -0.0
Silver/gold ratio 0.0170 0.0170 0.0000 0.0
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$) 227.31 222.32 -4.98 -2.2
Dow in gold ounces 11.00 10.75 -0.24 -2.2
Dow in Silver ounces 646.87 632.55 -14.32 -2.2
Dow Industrials 15,083.16 15,010.51 -72.65 -0.5
S&P500 1,655.83 1,663.50 7.67 0.5
US dollar index 81.28 81.36 0.08 0.1
Platinum 1,526.70 1,540.70 14.00 0.9
Palladium 762.15 750.35 -11.80 -1.5

What's the score? Silver & gold rested this week after the week before's elephantine gains, but today picked up the ball and began running again. Gold/Silver ratio's new low corroborates the metals' rally. Dow measured by metals continue to plunge, and stocks in dollar terms didn't precisely shine, either. US dollar index stayed flat as a central banker's head (yes, I did use that last week, but I like it so much I had to plagiarize it from myself.)

Every day before I write this commentary I usually check the news, then reach for my wastebasket & puke, and continue writing. Today was nastier than usual, nothing but physically disgusting news, mass murderers, regular murderers, porn stars, and repulsive media hogs who have had their self-respect surgically removed. And there was something about that disgusting flat-headed IMF head, Christine Bogard, Laggard, LeGarde, whatever it is. I stopped reading. Couldn't take it. No need to read it, as she will only say, "Print more money!"

Surely somewhere in the world today someone committed some small act of kindness, said some encouraging word, did his duty? That's the only way you can separate yourself from these loonies. In the words of my friend NB, it looks like "Hell is full so the damned are walking the earth."

On to today's markets. Let's start with stocks, because they always stimulate my sarcasm gland. The Dow eked out a close above 15,000, namely, 15,010.51, a 46.77 point (0.31%) gain on yesterday. Here, here -- take my magnifying glass, you'll be able to spot it. S&P500 clumb 6.54 (0.39%) to 1,663.50. After six straight down days, two little days with a 3/4% gain doesn't precisely set the world afire.

Yet 'tis possible that stocks are trying to turn up. Personally, I suspect they will travel a bit lower before turning, maybe to 14,600 and 1,590. Be warned, if they break those levels then they won't make one last high and the Great Panic hath begun.

When I ponder all the signs & indicators that witness together silver & gold have bottomed, none is plainer than the Dow in Gold & Dow in Silver. They have dropped like your teenaged heart when you spied your girlfriend out with your rival on Saturday night (Forget her -- she wasn't right for you anyway).

Over the week the Dow in Silver & Dow in Gold both fell another 2.2%. Today the Dow in silver fell a whopping 17.28 oz (2.7%) to 632.47 oz. I beg y'all to call to mind that at about 610 oz. the Dow in Silver will close back underneath its long term downtrend line. 200 DMA awaits at 569.73 oz.

Dow in gold forked over 1.4% today to close at 10.755. Long term trend line awaits below at 10.50 oz, not far. 200 DMA stands at 9.67 oz. Both indicators are flashing a strong signal that stocks are about to lose value sharply against metals. Action? Implies you ought to sell stocks & put the proceeds into gold.

US dollar index cannot make up its mind to rise or fall. Today it peeled off 12 basis points (-.15%) to end at 81.361. Dollar appears to have turned up, but will forfeit that appearance if it can't breast through 82.00 next week.

Of course, the dollar looks good next to the really sorry Japanese yen. It broke its intermediate (since May) support today and only barely closed above it, up 0.8% on the day at 101.35 cents/Y100. Maybe the Nipponese Nice Government Men are targeting 80c/Y100? Lunacy. Pure moonburn.

Euro (I believe) topped two weeks ago, then doubled that top this week. True, it rose today 0.17% to $1.3379, but gravity has the upper hand.

Finally, finally, finally gold disentangled its feet from the toils & snares of $1,350-$1,375 resistance and jumped $24.50 today (1.8%) to $1,395.70. Tis readying itself for an assault on $1,425 next week -- watch.

Nor did silver play the laggard. It leapt 3.05% (70.3 cents) to 2373.3c. In the aftermarket it has traded above 2400c. I don't believe silver will stop before it reaches the dread spot where it fell off in April at 2700c. Gold is targeting $1,550 before the rally relents.

All these indicators are piling up in the same directions: higher prices for silver & gold. Market is handing y'all a rare & enormous opportunity to buy. Go now.

Nothing quite tickles me like sharing things with y'all I know y'all will delight in. Here are a couple.

My friend Dr. Mike Roth has a website, www.SomaHealth.net. Whether you buy anything from or not, you'll learn copiously from the articles on his website. Dr. Mike is a straight up man, and you can also subscribe to his free email letter.

On another note, even a blind chicken finds an worm now and then. That's why I keep listening to National Proletarian Radio, because they play classical music & every once in a while I hear something really fine, & I go buy it. Here's one that will make your soul glow: "Nine Notes That Shook the World." It's lute (Ronn McFarlane) and flute (Mindy Rosenfeld) playing works from 1620 - 1785. No 11, "The Thistle," will float your soul right up to heaven, & the rest are likewise glorious. If you like wailing, tortured electric guitar, you won't like this. If you are sane, you will love it.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
23-Aug-13 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,395.70 24.50 1.8
Silver, $/oz 23.73 0.70 3.1
Gold/Silver Ratio 58.808 1.015 1.8
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0170 0.0005 3.0
Platinum 1,540.70 1.50 0.1
Palladium 750.35 -4.00 -0.5
S&P 500 1,663.50 6.55 0.4
Dow 15,010.51 46.77 0.3
Dow in GOLD $s 222.32 -3.24 -1.4
Dow in GOLD oz 10.75 -0.16 -1.4
Dow in SILVER oz 632.47 -17.28 -2.7
US Dollar Index 81.36 -0.12 -0.1
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,398.00      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,431.55 1,443.44 1,443.44
1/2 AE 0.50 712.47 736.40 1,472.79
1/4 AE 0.25 356.24 375.19 1,500.75
1/10 AE 0.10 146.69 153.08 1,530.81
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,363.47 1,374.47 1,402.23
British sovereign 0.24 331.06 343.06 1,457.37
French 20 franc 0.19 261.01 268.01 1,435.49
Krugerrand 1.00 1,413.38 1,425.38 1,425.38
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,413.00 1,428.00 1,428.00
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 803.85 733.95 1,467.90
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 356.49 373.97 1,495.86
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 148.19 152.38 1,523.82
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,670.26 1,683.26 1,396.09
.9999 bar 1.00 1,402.89 1,413.89 1,413.89
SPOT SILVER: 24.00      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 25.50 28.00 36.60
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 21.50 25.00 32.68
90% silver coin bags 0.72 18,232.50 18,610.50 26.03
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 6,888.25 7,038.25 23.86
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 2,410.00 2,475.00 24.75
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 241.00 247.50 24.75
1 oz .999 round 1.00 24.10 24.85 24.85
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 25.25 27.00 27.00
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,540.70      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Platinum Platypus 1.00 1,550.70 1,580.70 1,580.70
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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