The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Tuesday, 17 September a.d. 2013 Browse the commentary archive

Long as an alcoholic can still manage to buy more booze, everything's rosy. Doesn't matter that his marriage is tanking, his job's shaky, his friends have dropped him, as long as the booze flows, he's okay.

And while the worlds greatest alcoholic, the US government, careens lurches toward the gutter, there's still good news: Price-cutter Janet Yellen is about to open another liquor store, so the supply of new booze/new money will keep on streaming.

Reality lies nowhere on the horizon of these people. It's like people who live next door to a paper mill. The smell would kill any stranger, but they've lived with it so long they can't even smell anything bad.

Interesting -- the Dow & the S&P500 are right close to their all time highs, but the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver stand significantly below their highs. Dow in gold today closed 11.859 oz (G$245.14 gold dollars, up 0.87%) against a 27 June 2013 high of 12.51 oz. Dow in silver ended at 714.50 oz (up 9.01 oz or 1.28%) against an end-June high of 816.77 oz. That's right, silver has been much stronger than gold.

Dow closed today at 15,529.73, up 34.95 or 0.23%. S&P500 gained 7.16 (0.42%) to 1,704.76. Got the bit between their teeth and running away!

I missed noting yesterday that the US dollar index gapped down, below that uptrend line from a May 2011 low. If I were a Roman haruspex, I would say this sheep had a very ugly liver. That trend line forms the bottom of a long rising wedge, which points ultimately to a downward outcome for the dollar. Has the time come?

This tumble has delighted the euro, which closed today at $1.3359, up 0.15%. Barrier stands at top of the range about $1.3450.

Yen fell 0.07% today to close 100.88 cents/Y100. Beneath its 20 & 50 day moving averages, & the 20 just crossed beneath the 50. As those bearers used to say in the old Tarzan movies when they heard the war drums throbbing through the jungle, "Bad juju, bwana."

Gold misplaced $8.40 & closed at $1,309.50 while silver lost 22.8 cents to end at 2173.5 cents. Problem is not so much they're breaking down as they give no evidence of turning up.

We're just stuck here, waiting to see whether they will catch and hold at the necklines (about $1,300 for gold and about 2165c). If they break those levels, gold will drop to $1,280 or lower, silver to 2000c or lower. "Or lower" means back to or past the June lows at 1817c & $1,180.

Y'all raise your eyes back up to the horizon: this decline will end before October ends. If it makes a lower low than 27 June, that will mark the end of the 2011-2013 correction. If it makes a higher low, that will confirm the 27 June posting as the low. Either way, silver & gold will begin moving up, and -- y'all listen now -- will gain more from here than they have gained through the whole life of this bull market.

Our you can put your trust in Janet Yellen's new cut-price liquor store.

On 17 September 2008 fell the house of Lehman Brothers, precipitating the Great Financial Panic of 2008. 'Tain't over yet.

On 17 September 1862 the Battle of Antietam secured its place in history as the bloodiest day in American History. Union and Confederate armies suffered more than 22,000 casualties.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
17-Sep-13 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,309.50 -8.40 -0.64%
Silver, $/oz 21.74 -0.23 -1.04%
Gold/Silver Ratio 60.248 0.243 0.40%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0166 -0.0001 -0.40%
Platinum 1,421.80 -18.80 -1.31%
Palladium 705.25 0.95 0.13%
S&P 500 1,704.76 7.16 0.42%
Dow 15,529.73 34.95 0.23%
Dow in GOLD $s 245.15 2.11 0.87%
Dow in GOLD oz 11.86 0.10 0.87%
Dow in SILVER oz 714.50 9.01 1.28%
US Dollar Index 81.26 0.19 0.23%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,311.20      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,343.98 1,353.81 1,353.81
1/2 AE 0.50 668.20 690.67 1,381.35
1/4 AE 0.25 334.10 351.89 1,407.57
1/10 AE 0.10 137.57 143.58 1,435.76
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,278.81 1,288.81 1,314.85
British sovereign 0.24 310.51 322.51 1,370.04
French 20 franc 0.19 244.80 251.80 1,348.69
Krugerrand 1.00 1,328.25 1,339.25 1,339.25
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,326.20 1,341.20 1,341.20
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 753.94 688.38 1,376.76
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 334.36 350.75 1,402.98
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 138.99 142.92 1,429.21
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,569.72 1,583.91 1,313.69
.9999 bar 1.00 1,315.79 1,326.79 1,326.79
SPOT SILVER: 21.74      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 26.00 29.00 37.91
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 24.00 27.00 35.29
90% silver coin bags 0.72 16,219.78 16,644.78 23.28
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 6,220.08 6,370.08 21.59
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 2,163.50 2,243.50 22.44
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 222.35 223.35 22.34
1 oz .999 round 1.00 21.84 22.64 22.64
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 22.99 24.54 24.54
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,421.80      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,446.80 1,486.80 1,486.80
Home Questions & Answers Articles & Resources
The Moneychanger, P.O. Box 178, Westpoint, TN 38486
888-218-9226

Copyright Notice

© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

For complete details on how to buy from us or sell to us, please click here.