The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Wednesday, 13 November a.d. 2013 Browse the commentary archive

That's odd -- silver & gold are up strongly (+28 cents & + $16) in the aftermarket. Back to that in a minute.

Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P500 made new all-time highs today, up 70.96 to 15,821.63 (+0.45%) and up 14.31 (0.81%) to 1,782. I reckon they are a perpetchul mo-shun mo-sheen run on the vapors of money creation.

Here's a little conundrum I'm puzzling over. Dow in Gold actually fell today if you look at the End Of Day price. Ended down 0.8% at 12.34, against 12.447 yesterday and 12.514 at the June low. RSI is overbought.

More conundrum: while the Dow in Gold floats near its June high, the Dow in Silver doesn't. It rose today 0.89% to 768.04 oz, against an 816.77 oz June high. If both indicators wanted to double top, this would be the place to do it.

Over the last three days the Gold:Silver Ratio has moved from 60.217 to 62.074, a breakout over resistance and a discouraging sign for silver & gold. When both metals are rallying, that ratio ought to trend down.

Tomorrow Janet Yellen, Obama's nominee to succeed Ben Bernanke as Head Criminal at the Federal Reserve, talks to the senate confirmation committee. A Reuters news report said that the dollar fell "on expectations that [Yellen's] remarks will underscore the Fed's accommodative posture." Great, that's logical, but why didn't that happen after the last FOMC meeting when the Head Goofs said they would continue "accommodating"? Printing $85 bn in new money every month and calling it "accommodating" is like calling adultery "snuggling." These people all warp the language because they don't want you to know what their words mean.

Dollar index fell 0.21% or 16.4 basis points to 80.972. Technically that doesn't signify much, since the dollar has been rallying sharply since late October & is due for a corrective rest. Now if it fell below the 50 DMA at 80.54, it might mean something.

Euro took advantage of dollar giddiness to advance 0.38% to $1.3487. Lo, once again, it signifieth nothing. Euro has now climbed to the 62 day moving average & filled chart gaps left behind when gravity took over last week. I might respect it over the 50 DMA ($1.3517), but not here. Come to think of it, it would have to rise nearly to $1.3600 before I respected it.

Yen rose 0.35% to 100.76 cents per Y100. Somebody remind me again why we look at this thing? Nothing ever happens. Clearly the Japanese Nice Government Men are controlling it tightly.

At Comex close gold had lost $2.80 to $1,268.30. Silver had yielded 33.6 cents to 2043.2c.

A word about these "closes." Comex opens about 8:30 Eastern time and closes at 1:30 Eastern. Once upon a time it was the only daytime game in the US, but now gold is a 24-hour around the globe market. After Comex closes the electronic Globex market opens in the US, so the Comex close is merely a snapshot, & not always a well-focused snapshot at that.

Here in the aftermarket gold has risen to $1,283.40 & silver to 2070c. For silver that roughly, for gold more than, makes up yesterday's losses. I mention this only because both are tap-dancing around that uptrend line from June. That hints they might be catching a grip here. Tomorrow will tell.

On 13 November 1805 Johann Georg Lehner, a Viennese Butcher, invented a wurst recipe he called the "Frankfurter." Why, since he was from Wien (Vienna in German), he did not call it the "Wiener" is not known.

On 13 November 1835 Texans declared themselves independent of Mexico and founded a republic.

On 13 November the Denny Party landed at Alki Point as the first settlers at what would become Seattle. Minutes after they arrived they whipped out their laptops & began writing balky computer programs.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
13-Nov-13 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,268.30 -9.90 -0.77%
Silver, $/oz 20.43 -0.34 -1.62%
Gold/Silver Ratio 62.074 0.528 0.86%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0161 -0.0001 -0.85%
Platinum 1,430.20 7.20 0.51%
Palladium 735.00 -12.20 -1.63%
S&P 500 1,782.00 14.31 0.81%
Dow 15,821.63 70.96 0.45%
Dow in GOLD $s 257.87 3.14 1.23%
Dow in GOLD oz 12.47 0.15 1.23%
Dow in SILVER oz 774.36 15.94 2.10%
US Dollar Index 80.97 -0.16 -0.20%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,283.40      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,319.34 1,328.32 1,328.32
1/2 AE 0.50 654.02 676.99 1,353.99
1/4 AE 0.25 341.44 344.91 1,379.66
1/10 AE 0.10 135.93 141.17 1,411.74
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,247.92 1,257.92 1,283.33
British sovereign 0.24 303.93 315.93 1,342.08
French 20 franc 0.19 241.41 244.41 1,309.11
Krugerrand 1.00 1,309.07 1,320.07 1,320.07
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,298.40 1,313.40 1,313.40
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 737.96 673.79 1,347.57
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 327.27 343.31 1,373.24
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 136.04 139.89 1,398.91
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,534.89 1,550.40 1,285.89
.9999 bar 1.00 1,287.89 1,299.40 1,299.40
SPOT SILVER: 20.70      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 26.00 29.00 37.91
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 24.00 27.00 35.29
90% silver coin bags 0.72 15,301.00 15,551.00 21.75
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 5,914.75 6,064.75 20.56
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 2,060.00 2,130.00 21.30
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 212.00 213.00 21.30
1 oz .999 round 1.00 20.80 21.35 21.35
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 22.45 23.20 23.20
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,430.20      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,455.20 1,495.20 1,495.20
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

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  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
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  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
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Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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