The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Thursday, 14 November a.d. 2013 Browse the commentary archive

Sometimes I fail to make thoroughly clear what I am offering y'all. The prices I publish here every day are not MY bid/ask spread, not anything I make up, but genuine WHOLESALE prices actually on offer. Nowhere else on the internet can you find these prices -- that's why I publish them.

I also publish them so you can keep from being cheated. Not long ago a customer called me and said he had taken some 90% silver coin for sale to one of these "We Buy Gold & Silver" shops. First the buyer badmouthed 90% silver coin and complained how he didn't want to buy it, but would pay 4 times face value anyway. Big favor. On the same day wholesale on 90% silver coin was about 16 times face value.

See what I mean, Vern? There are folks in the gold & silver business who'd steal the quarters off a dead man's eyes. If you have my commentary, at least you know the current wholesale value of your metals, whether you sell to us or anybody else.

Today all was right in the world. Janet Yellen, Hed Fed Parasite-to-be spoke to the senate confirmation committee & announced she would keep the money presses running although sometime in the future, sometime, the Fed might taper. Maybe.

In our Looney-Tunes world, this advance announcement that the Fed will depreciate the Dollar caused the dollar to rise, interest rates to fall (more logical, as it means more ZIRP), & stocks to rise, although inflation cripples the economy. Makes me so happy I could just drool & loll my head.

But more interesting things happened as well.

Start with stocks. Dow & S&P500 hit new all-time highs again today (ho-hum). Dow augmented 54.59 (0.35%) to 15,876.22 while the S&P500 swelled 8.62 (0.48%) to 1,790.62.

I understand the jubilatin' on Wall Street is gin'ral, but forgive me if I forbear. A market that shows a long, steep rise, then throws over its upper trading channel boundary & two new highs in as many days -- well, it might go higher, but you also might roll seven two times running, too. Still, all three Dow indices are lined up rising, & that's supposed to be a good sign, so why should it bother me that the MACD & RSI are so high?

I was more interested to see that on a day when these stock indices hit new highs, the Dow in Gold & Dow in Silver turned down. I'm so boring I pay attention to stuff like that. Y'all ought to see my dust-bunny collection.

Dow in gold lost 1.05% to 12.343 oz (G$255.16) & right in step (pari passu, as the Roman might say) the Dow in Silver lost 1.01% to 766.52 oz. This is little bitty stuff, but both are most overbought on the RSI they've been since the June metals' lows /Dow in Metals highs. I wish I wasn't such a durned natural born Tennessee fool so I could figure out what this means.

US DOLLAR INDEX gained 20 basis points (0.25%) to close above 81 at 81.04. That doesn't near about raise it out of correction territory. It needs to climb over 81.50 for that.

Meanwhile the euro lost 0.19% to $1.3463. Looks like the Kryptonite at the 62 DMA made it melt. Small chance it might turn up would be proven by a close above the 20 DMA at $1.3597. Not likely.

Yen gapped down today, a total of 0.68% to 100.05 cents per Y100. Much as it stretches your imagination, it might fall past the last low & sink to the earth's core here. It appears that all the world's central bank criminals have discovered they can raise their stock markets by depreciating their currencies, & they are as excited about that as a hookworm at a barefoot dance. Y'all know this exercise adds no value to stocks, benefits a few insiders, & for the nation does no more than taking change out of one pocket & putting it in another, then claiming you're richer.

Durn! Ain't hi fynance uh-mazin'?

Silver gained 28 cents from yesterday's Comex close & ended today at 2071.2c. Gold re-claimed $17.90 to $1,286.00

For gold, Tuesday left a V-bottom & then most of those gains came after closing yesterday. V-bottom and rise above $1,280 give birth to hopes of higher prices tomorrow. $1,300 will offer stiff resistance. Don't get lost in the forest. Gold still needs to close above $1,362 to qualify for a rally. However, last two day's trading left that keyhole on the chart that usually is followed by at least some rally. RSI has turned up but not yet the MACD.

Silver's three day chart shows an upside-down head and shoulders with a neckline about 2090c. If silver clears that, it will rally above 2100c to the 2120c area where it broke down on Tuesday. All the hedging, qualification, dodging, & weaving applied to gold above also applies to silver. Nothing solid happens till it surpasses 23.09, the last high.

One last thing: Gold silver ratio fell today to 62.099, so there are a few hopeful threads blowing in gold & silver's winds, but no kind of proof yet.

On 14 November 1812 Napoleon Bonaparte's army retreats from Moscow. Temperatures drop to 20 below zero. Bonaparte's army freezes.

On 14 November 1972 the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 1,000 for the first time. The Dow couldn't hold that level, and needed another ten years to get out of its bear market and begin a new bull market.

On 14 November 1947 was born P.J. O'Rourke, one of America's truly funny writers. Try his Give War A Chance or Parliament of Whores.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
14-Nov-13 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,286.20 17.90 1.41%
Silver, $/oz 20.71 0.28 1.37%
Gold/Silver Ratio 62.099 0.025 0.04%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0161 -0.0000 -0.04%
Platinum 1,442.30 12.10 0.85%
Palladium 739.40 4.40 0.60%
S&P 500 1,790.62 8.62 0.48%
Dow 15,876.22 54.59 0.35%
Dow in GOLD $s 255.16 -2.71 -1.05%
Dow in GOLD oz 12.34 -0.13 -1.05%
Dow in SILVER oz 766.52 -7.83 -1.01%
US Dollar Index 81.04 0.20 0.25%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,286.80      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,322.83 1,331.84 1,331.84
1/2 AE 0.50 655.76 678.79 1,357.57
1/4 AE 0.25 342.34 345.83 1,383.31
1/10 AE 0.10 136.29 141.55 1,415.48
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,251.23 1,261.23 1,286.71
British sovereign 0.24 304.73 316.73 1,345.50
French 20 franc 0.19 242.05 245.05 1,312.51
Krugerrand 1.00 1,311.25 1,322.25 1,322.25
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,301.80 1,316.80 1,316.80
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 739.91 675.57 1,351.14
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 328.13 344.22 1,376.88
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 136.40 140.26 1,402.61
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,538.96 1,554.49 1,289.29
.9999 bar 1.00 1,291.30 1,302.80 1,302.80
SPOT SILVER: 20.78      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 25.00 26.50 34.64
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 22.00 24.25 31.70
90% silver coin bags 0.72 15,497.63 15,747.63 22.02
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 5,936.88 6,086.88 20.63
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 2,067.50 2,137.50 21.38
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 212.75 213.75 21.38
1 oz .999 round 1.00 20.88 21.43 21.43
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 22.53 23.28 23.28
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,442.30      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,467.30 1,507.30 1,507.30
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

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