The Moneychanger
Weekly Commentary
Friday, 15 November a.d. 2013 Browse the commentary archive
Here's the weekly scorecard:
  8-Nov-13 15-Nov-13 Change % Change
Silver, cents/oz. 2,130.70 2,071.70 -59.00 -2.8
Gold, dollars/oz. 1,284.50 1,287.80 3.30 0.3
Gold/silver ratio 60.285 62.162 1.880 3.1
Silver/gold ratio 0.0166 0.0161 -0.0005 -3.0
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$) 253.66 256.22 2.56 1.0
Dow in gold ounces 12.27 12.39 0.12 1.0
Dow in Silver ounces 739.75 770.46 30.72 4.2
Dow Industrials 15,761.78 15,961.70 85.48 0.5
S&P500 1,770.61 1,798.18 7.56 0.4
US dollar index 81.24 80.82 -0.43 -0.5
Platinum 1,441.10 1,437.10 -4.00 -0.3
Palladium 757.35 732.30 -25.05 -3.3

Y'all can jot down 5 November 2013 as "the day the rule of law died." I heard on the radio this morning that Bernard O'Bama has taken upon his own stout shoulders to "delay" applying that part of Obamacare that cancelled some folk's health insurance, and he's ordered the insurance companies to re-instate them.

What a dolt I am! I though we had a CONGRESS to make laws, & the president merely executed them. I thought once a law was passed, the president had no option save to execute it. I also thought, durned Tennessee constitutional fool that I am, that only under a dictatorship did the president make or repeal laws on his own hook.

If any of y'all have been to court in the past 20 or 30 years, especially on tax matters, you already know that the rule of law is dead. But this nails down the coffin lid, if the president can by his mere arbitrary word make or break existing contracts or set laws aside, why, the rule of law is dead. That means, of course, that no man's life, property, or livelihood is safe from government. No law, no safety.

But y'all do have a bang-up new health care system.

Meanwhile, in China they are instituting reforms to make their economy freer. Back on Wall Street, stocks were foaming at the mouth over Fed-Head-Criminal-Designate Janet Yellen's senate testimony yesterday she would continue Bernanke's inflation until the cows come home & then a couple of light years further. Let's see, the Chinese Communists abandon communism for free markets while the US abandons free markets for centralized economic control in the hand of goofs that wouldn't recognize an economic truth if it bit 'em on the leg.

Enough of this fun, on to markets.

Dow & S&P500 hit new all time highs today, rising on the strength of Yellen's hot air. Dow gained 85.48 (0.54%) to 15,961.70. S&P500 added 7.56 (0.42%) to 1,798.18.

Yea, write it down in thy book: The Moneychanger is speechless. How could words describe my feelings as I view these numbers, knowing that the entire US economy has been transferred into La-La Land, where numbers mean exactly what we need them to mean, everybody is good-looking, and we ALL feel good about the future. With the economy conquered & tamed, the Fed & the government can now move on to eliminating BO.

New all time highs in the Dow & S&P500 didn't show much in the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver. They edged up -- DiG rose 0.5%. to 12.399 oz (G$256.32) & the DiS climbed 0.5% to 770.46.

If I was piloting that boat labeled "US Dollar Index" I'd be holding my breath. Dollar Index lost 21 basis points today (0.27%) to 80.818. Long as it stays above 80.75 it will probably keep rising toward 83.

Euro have formed a bearish rising wedge while filling gaps on the chart. Would have to close above its 50 DMA ($1.3530) to change my mind.

'Pears the Nice Nipponese Government Men intend to knock their currency down again. Lost 0.12% today to 99.86 cents/Y100. 99.55 was the last low. Break though that throws the yen out of the boat.

Y'all better keep watching those interest rates. They're liable to turn Janet Yellen's legs to jelly if they rise too much. Ten Year treasury note yield rose today 0.26% to 2.709%. Look out, Janet!

Pretty hard to makes sense of silver & gold. They disagreed even with each other this week, gold rising 0.3% & silver losing 2.8%.

Today gold inched up $1.10 to $1,287.30. Silver gained -- get out your jeweler's loupes -- one-half cent to 2071.7c.

Something big and dispositive's gonna happen here. In spite of the last two day's rally, silver & gold remained locked in a downtrend, but then at reversals markets are always trending down. Talking to a friend today reinforced an idea that's been working in my mind that both metals might make a surprise turnaround here. Oh, they've turned up for at least a short run, but they have to do better than that. We have to see silver better 2309c and then 2512c before it will redeem itself out of that downtrend. Gold must beat $1,361.80 and $1,434. But one step at a time.

Y'all, I know I've said this a thousand times, but y'all need to keep hearing it to rinse all that central bank hogwash out of your ears. THE BULL MARKET IN SILVER & GOLD HAS NOT ENDED. NOT ENDED. If the 2011-2013 correction low was not posted in June, we ought to see it by the end of this month. This is not the time to go to sleep. Regardless what the Washington apparatchiki say, the Millennium has not yet arrived.

Whoa! We weren't expecting Volume 2 of At Home In Dogwood Mudhole to arrive until early December, but a truckload of the new books showed up day before yesterday! Y'all have to help me (and yourselves -- you'll laugh yourself goofy) by buying a copy for yourself and your friends for Christmas. Listen, use the code word "Hogwild" when you order and you save up to $8 in shipping (sorry, not available outside the US). We already have orders from 19 states, New Zealand, & the UK. What's hindering you folks in Minnesota? Alaska? Arizona? Connecticut? Delaware and Florida? Hawaii? Idaho? Indiana, Iowa, Kansas? Louisiana & Maine? Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, and Nevada? What about the News, New Mexico and New York? Oklahoma? What about you folks in the rectilinear states, Utah, South Dakota, & Wyoming? Vermont, Washington, West Virginia? And my favorite yankees up in Wisconsin? I double-dog dare y'all to buy a copy!

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
15-Nov-13 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,287.30 1.10 0.1
Silver, $/oz 20.72 0.01 0.0
Gold/Silver Ratio 62.137 0.053 0.1
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0161 0.0000 0.0
Platinum 1,437.10 -5.20 -0.4
Palladium 732.30 -7.10 -1.0
S&P 500 1,798.18 7.56 0.4
Dow 15,961.70 85.48 0.5
Dow in GOLD $s 256.32 1.18 0.5
Dow in GOLD oz 12.40 0.06 0.5
Dow in SILVER oz 770.46 3.94 0.5
US Dollar Index 80.82 -0.21 -0.3
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,287.40      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,323.45 1,332.46 1,332.46
1/2 AE 0.50 656.06 679.10 1,358.21
1/4 AE 0.25 342.50 345.99 1,383.96
1/10 AE 0.10 136.36 141.61 1,416.14
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,251.81 1,261.81 1,287.30
British sovereign 0.24 304.87 316.87 1,346.10
French 20 franc 0.19 242.16 245.16 1,313.11
Krugerrand 1.00 1,311.86 1,322.86 1,322.86
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,302.40 1,317.40 1,317.40
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 740.26 675.89 1,351.77
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 328.29 344.38 1,377.52
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 136.46 140.33 1,403.27
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,539.67 1,555.22 1,289.89
.9999 bar 1.00 1,291.91 1,303.40 1,303.40
SPOT SILVER: 20.73      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 25.00 26.50 34.64
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 22.00 24.25 31.70
90% silver coin bags 0.72 15,501.20 15,751.20 22.03
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 5,923.60 6,073.60 20.59
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 2,063.00 2,133.00 21.33
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 212.30 213.30 21.33
1 oz .999 round 1.00 20.83 21.38 21.38
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 22.48 23.73 23.73
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,437.10      
Platinum Platypus 1.00 1,462.10 1,502.10 1,502.10
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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