Markets sprang back into action today, but they blew an uncertain trumpet. Bewilderment reigns.
Stock indices all rose today -- except the senior Dow Jones Industrial average, which fell 0.27% or 44.12 points to 16,414.44. S&P500 rose by about the same amount, up 0.28% (5.1 points) to 1,843.80.
Dow's fall looks nastier because it rose to a new high for the move (not a new all-time high) then fell off to close lower, and below the 20 DMA (16,426.41). That's the first half of a key reversal, & if followed by a lower close tomorrow semaphores immediately lower prices.
S&P500's trading day looks much the same, cutting into but not closing below its 20 DMA, but it closed higher than Friday. None of this looks happy to me. Certainly stocks have not yet peaked, but they are blowing hot & cold out of both sides of the mouth. As with bankers & girlfriends, this is not a sign of future felicity.
Silver & gold gainsaid each other today, which left the Dow in Gold & Dow in Silver at odds, too. Dow in Gold rose a little 0.78% to 13.23 oz (G$273.49 gold dollars). It treadeth still below the 20 DMA and along the cliff edge of the trading channel and 50 DMA (13.01oz/G$268.94). A single misstep sends it plunging into the abyss.
Dow in silver rose 2% to 826.51 oz, touching the 20 DMA at 826.47. Remains near the bottom channel line and close to the 50 DMA (807.05 oz). Break through those 50 DMAs would rev up downward momentum, sort of like tying concrete blocks to somebody's feet before pushing him out of an airplane.
The festering US dollar index keeps trending up, sort of, but three steps forward and two back. Today it reached for the 200 DMA (81.57), made a high at 81.53, then fell back & closed 14 basis points (0.17%) lower than Friday. Headed up, but torturing its friends along the way. To your everlasting surprise, I beg to report that I am not among those friends.
Among the other loathsome, immoral, & corrupt fiat currencies used to decapitalize their captive economies, the Euro rose 0.16% to $1.3562, but this is like shaving a pig. Time the shave is done, he's still a pig. Euro is done broke down & beat up, and today's bounce weigheth no more than styrofoam chips in a windstorm.
Yen remains above its 20 DMA (95.70) but unenthusiastic. Rose 0.07% today to 95.93 cents/Y100. Indicators say it has turned up, yet the chart pelaseth not the eye, nor showeth any strength.
Ten year treasury yield is dancing with its 50 DMA (2.843) in a correction. Lost 0.07% to 2.825%. May head lower in the immediate future, but the 30 year trend in bonds turned up this summer. Bigger changes coming here, no matter how slowly they unfold. Higher rates will bring more severe migraines to Janet & the rest of the international central bank criminals.
Same old tricks attacked the gold market today after Friday's exuberant close. A little after New York opened somebody slammed it with sales, driving gold from $1,246 to $1,237 in five minutes. It found a foothold & climbed above $1,240 by noon-thirty, but flattened out the rest of the day. High came at $1,262 in overnight trading, low at $1,235.40. Comex closed down $9.40 (0.75%) at $1,242.30.
What's encouraging about that? Gold remained above the 50 DMA ($1240.38). What's discouraging? It made a new high for the move, but closed lower for the day, first half of a key reversal. Must close higher tomorrow or probe lower prices again.
Oh, silver! Plunged 42.9 cents (2.1%) today to 1983.8c. Range was 2043c to 1966c, and silver has fallen right back into the same old trading range without escaping through 2050c. Worse, it fell through the 50 DMA (2000c) and the 20 DMA (1988c) and through the uptrend line.
Be patient. Silver must hold above 1950c here. Gold must hold $1,210. Nobody is going anywhere until gold rises above $1,267.70, the December low.
Just to show you how times have changed, on 21 January 1908 New York City make smoking by women illegal, but the mayor vetoed the ordinance, whether as a libertarian partisan of the Nasty Weed & one's right to smoke or as a women's rights advocate, history sayeth not. Today the city has laws forbidding men AND women to smoke most places, spreading totalitarian control to both sexes with egalitarian glee.
On 21 January 1824 was born Thomas Jonathan "Stonewall" Jackson, a babe destined to become one of the mightiest warriors the world had ever seen, yet one of the tenderest Christians. He hated war, & that accounted for his relentless fierceness: he wanted to end it quickly.
Jackson was famous for his personal bravery in battle. When someone asked him what caused it, he said, "My religious belief teaches me to feel as safe in battle as in bed. God has fixed the time for my death. I do not concern myself about that, but to be always ready, no matter when it ay overtake me. That is the way all men should live, and then all would be equally brave." Had Providence not taken him away from us -- had he been at Gettysburg with Lee instead of Longstreet, well, y'all would need a passport now to drive from Washington to Fairfax.
Best Jackson biography came from James I Robertson, Jr. about 1994, "Stonewall Jackson: The Man, the Soldier, the Legend." Robertson superbly presents Jackson's quirky but authentic character, genius, and faith. Best movie is Ron Maxwell's 2003 "Gods & Generals" with Stephen Lang as Jackson.
Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.
— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger