The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Thursday, 6 February a.d. 2014 Browse the commentary archive

Today markets roused a little excitement. Whether that changes anything or not is another story.

Lo, stocks had their best day this year, but then, that's not saying much. Dow fluttered up 188.3 (1.22%) to 15,628.53, & back above its 200 DMA (15,483.08). Since other people watch charts, too, it's reasonable to expect them to buy at the 200 DMA. The S&P500 rose 21.79 (1.24%) to 1,773.43, Behold! Enough to touch its downtrend line.

It appears stocks are lining up for an upward correction. 'Twill be fascinating to see how far they can climb.

Stocks' strength relative to gold & silver today floated the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver. Dow in Gold rose 1.16% to 12.42 oz (G$256.74 gold dollars). Dow in Silver barely edged up, 0.89% to 783.78 oz.

Mario Draghi, Criminal-in-Charge at the European Central Bank, surprised markets today by announcing there is no deflation in Europe and leaving the interest rate alone. Market was expecting a rate cut or at least a shot of Quantitative Easing, so the opposite probably set off some short covering. Whatever they thought, the euro jumped up 0.44% to $1.3592, without, however, closing above its 20 DMA (1.3604) or 50 DMA (1.3644) or breaking through its top descending channel line. In other words, it bounced from the bottom of the trading channel to the top. That doesn't really change anything. Unless it can close above $1.3650 tomorrow, today will go down in history as, as, well, as nothing.

US Dollar Index, Enemy to its Friends, Traitor to Investors, dropped 15 basis points (0.19%) to 80.97, below the psychologically sensitive 81 line. That is slap up against its 20 DMA (80.96) & leaves the dollar suspended in the selfsame range it has wallowed in since September.

Yen tumbled 0.6% to 97.94, putting the end to its uptrend at least while a short correction endures.

Gold rose a chiselling 30 cents to $1,257.60 & silver didn't shine much brighter, sneaking up 12.3 cents to 1990.8c.

There's a "feel of the thing" even to markets, and a long train of rises that slow down to thirty cents feels like the apogee of a thrown baseball's trajectory. Feels like it's slowing before it falls. Of course, you could ascribe that to gold's resistance at $1,267.50 (today's high) or resistance at that downtrend line, which gold closed nearly plumb on top of today. Don't write this rally off yet. Squint sideways at it, maybe, but don't write it off yet.

The elephant sat on silver today, too, but it's still moving up. Standing above its 50 (1976c) and 20 (1981c) day moving averages, it has a shot at breaking through 2050c.

All things added up, stocks and the euro sucked interest away from metals today. Still, nothing has changed. Main thing now is the silver holds own above 1897c and gold above $1,210. It may take another try still for gold to breach $1,267.50, but that's not the end of the world.

On 6 February 2013 Ronald Reagan was born. Did any of y'all every ponder the significance of an ACTOR being the PRESIDENT? Does that make anybody but me a little nervous? Makes me even more nervous when I remember that federal spending jumped more than ever during Mr. Conservative Republican's term. I reckon whoever gets the office, we get the shaft. SPECIAL OFFER: MORGAN SILVER DOLLARS

I bought some pre-1905 Morgan silver dollars on a swap but since I don't usually stock them, so I would like to say good-bye to these quickly, so they are priced to fly.

OFFER No. 1.

Seventy-five (75) each VG+ pre-1905 Morgan, silver dollars at $26.50 each, for a total of $1,987.50 plus $35 shipping or $2,022.50. These are not bright, shiny uncirculated coins, but all are simply graded strict Very Good or better, no culls, no rim dings, full rims, etc. Each coin contains 0.765 troy ounce of silver, allowing wear for circulation. Great coin for survival. I have only six (6) lots.

OFFER No. 2.

Ninety (90) each pre-1905 Morgan, CULL silver dollars at $23.00 each, for a total of $2,070.00 plus $35 shipping or $2,105.00. A "CULL" dollar won't meet the grade of Very Good or better. Worn and might have rim dings or rims worn down in spots, but won't quite reach an honest Very Good. Another great survival coin. I have Six (6) lots only.

Special Conditions:

First come, first served, and no re-orders at these prices. I will write orders based on the time I receive your e-mail.

Sorry, we will not take orders for less than the minimum shown above.

All sales on a strict "no-nag" basis. We will ship as soon as your check clears, but we allow Two weeks (14 days) for your check to clear. Calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely and patiently rebuffed.

It increases your chances of getting your order filled if you offer me a second choice, e.g., "I want to order One of Lot 2, but if not available will take One of Lot 2." ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:

1. You may order by e-mail only to offers@the-moneychanger.com. No phone orders, please. Please do NOT order by replying to THIS email, because it will delay your email.

Your email must include your complete name, address, & phone number. We cannot ship to you without your address. Sorry, we cannot ship outside the United States or to Tennessee.

Repeat, you must include your complete name, address, and phone number. Our clairvoyant quit without warning last week, then I tripped, dropped, & smashed my crystal ball, & our fortune-teller is on strike, so I can no longer read your mind.

2. When you buy from us, we cannot later change or cancel the trade. We are giving you our word that we will sell at that price, & you are giving us your word that you will buy at that price, regardless what later happens in the market, up or down.

If you break your word to us, we will never again do business with you.

3. Orders are on a first-come, first-served basis until supply is exhausted.

4. "First come, first-served" means that we will enter the orders in the order that we receive them by e-mail.

5. If your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation. If you do not receive a confirmation, your order was not filled.

6. You will need to send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. It just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours.

7. "No Nag Basis" means that we allow fourteen (14) days for personal checks to clear before we ship.

Want your order faster? Send a bank wire, but that's not required. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, you'll see your order in about one month if you send a check.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
6-Feb-14 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,257.60 0.30 0.02%
Silver, $/oz 19.91 0.12 0.62%
Gold/Silver Ratio 63.171 -0.378 -0.59%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0158 0.0001 0.60%
Platinum 1,374.40 -4.40 -0.32%
Palladium 709.45 3.25 0.46%
S&P 500 1,773.43 21.79 1.24%
Dow 15,628.53 188.30 1.22%
Dow in GOLD $s 256.89 3.03 1.20%
Dow in GOLD oz 12.43 0.15 1.20%
Dow in SILVER oz 785.04 4.64 0.59%
US Dollar Index 80.97 -0.11 -0.14%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,257.60      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,290.30 1,299.10 1,299.10
1/2 AE 0.50 640.87 662.76 1,325.51
1/4 AE 0.25 322.00 337.67 1,350.66
1/10 AE 0.10 131.94 137.71 1,377.07
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,226.54 1,235.54 1,260.49
British sovereign 0.24 297.82 309.82 1,316.12
French 20 franc 0.19 236.55 239.59 1,283.31
Krugerrand 1.00 1,273.95 1,283.95 1,283.95
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,272.60 1,287.60 1,287.60
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 723.12 660.24 1,320.48
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 320.69 336.41 1,345.63
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 133.31 137.08 1,370.78
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,507.07 1,518.07 1,259.07
.9999 bar 1.00 1,262.00 1,276.60 1,276.60
SPOT SILVER: 19.92      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 23.00 25.00 32.68
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 20.00 22.00 28.76
90% silver coin bags 0.72 14,850.55 15,100.55 21.12
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 5,684.65 5,834.65 19.78
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 2,492.00 2,037.00 20.37
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 199.20 205.20 20.52
1 oz .999 round 1.00 19.92 20.47 20.47
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 21.17 22.62 22.62
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,374.40      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,399.40 1,439.40 1,439.40
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

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