The Moneychanger
Weekly Commentary
Friday, 21 February a.d. 2014 Browse the commentary archive
Here's the weekly scorecard:
  14-Feb-14 21-Feb-14 Change % Change
Silver, cents/oz. 2,141.10 2,178.20 37.10 1.7
Gold, dollars/oz. 1,319.00 1,323.90 4.90 0.4
Gold/silver ratio 61.604 60.780 -0.824 -1.3
Silver/gold ratio 0.0162 0.0165 0.0002 1.4
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$) 253.18 251.44 -1.73 -0.7
Dow in gold ounces 12.25 12.16 -0.08 -0.7
Dow in Silver ounces 754.49 739.29 -15.20 -2.0
Dow Industrials 16,154.39 16,103.30 -51.09 -0.3
S&P500 1,838.63 1,836.25 -2.38 -0.1
US dollar index 80.18 80.30 0.12 0.1
Platinum 1,428.50 1,426.30 -2.20 -0.2
Palladium 737.40 740.00 2.60 0.4

One last time I'll remind y'all, if you ever want to swap gold for silver at spot ratios above 60:1, you'd better jump. We are swapping gold for silver now, targeting a swap back at 31;1 or better.

Solid week for metals, making good last week's gains. Stocks struggled & still closed barely lower. US dollar index feebly rose. Dow measured in Silver & gold fell further.

US DOLLAR INDEX did no more this week than validate the bottom boundary (79.95) of the range in force since September, 79.75 - 81.50. Today peeled off two basis points to fall to 80.30. Momentum is earthward.

The euro, "The Manic Depressive Fiat Currency," rose again today. It's tightening up in a triangle that might shoot high but might also step through a rotten well cover. Today gained 0.14% to $1.3738. Japanese yen, lower by 0.22% today to 97.25, now hath fallen below its 20 day moving average. Should move lower, but barely.

STOCKS closed lower this week. Out of six weeks this year, stocks have closed lower three. Today most indices fell, not much, just enough to break morale. Dow mislaid 29.93 (0.2%) to 16,103.30. S&P500 lost 3.53 (0.2%) to end at 1,836.25

Stocks are painfully fulfilling a broadening top formation. From here we may yet see slightly higher highs, or we may have seen them already. Either way, by end-May we ought to know. Future course is down. Investors ought to be selling stocks and rolling proceeds into silver & gold.

Dow in gold lost another 0.43% to 12.14 oz. (G$250.96 gold dollars). Blamed thing has been falling so long I'm wondering if it's not time for a little rally. Dow in Silver is worse. It stands below the 200 DMA (741.24 oz) at 737.50 oz today, lower by 0.28%.

What I want to see here is more downside, confirming that metals have reversed their downtrend against stocks. Long term downtrend line for Dow in Silver today hits about 580 oz, for gold about 10 oz, so we have a ways to fall for final confirmation. Be patient.

Silver & gold scored another successful week, suffering a small correction bravely met. Gold rose 0.4% for the week, silver 1.7%. Today gold won another $6.80 (0.5%) to $1,323.90. Silver inched up 9.8 cents (0.5%) to 2178.2c.

After Tuesday's 2198c intraday high silver went into resting mode, but still never dropped lower than 2138c this week. This formation looks like a "pennant". Rule of thumb says, "Flags (& pennants) always fly at half staff," which gives this move a first target of about 2350c. Next week should witness silver jump up again.

Y'all shouldn't underestimate the worth of silver & gold at last climbing above their 200 day moving averages. That points momentum upward after we have struggled more than two years in a correction, with silver beneath that 200 DMA most of the time.

Last week gold broke through $1,300 and $1,320 resistance. It's breathing & puffing here, but should reach $1,360 before it takes a real rest. Gold might drop as low as $1,280 without breaking this uptrend.

On the weekly chart gold has risen plumb to the evil downtrend line from the August 2011 high, stands above the 20 week moving average & is kissing its 50 WMA. Confirmation comes when it passes the August high ($1,434), getting ready to challenge $1,550 where the April Agony occurred.

Silver's weekly chart shineth even more brightly. Silver has risen above its since-April 2011 downtrend line and is also kissing its 50 WMA.

Silver & gold ought to have at least a week left to rally. But never mind anticipations, both have definitively turned up out of the 2011-2013 correction. And this rally will far surpass any gains silver or gold saw from 2001 - 2011. Read that again, because I mean it. The best and biggest gains are yet to come.

If y'all miss that train, don't send me any post cards complaining I didn't warn y'all.

Hey, I have an idea. That pot business is working so well for Colorado that I have invented the American Pot Economic Recovery Plan or APERP.

Here's how it works: half of us will sell pot, and the other half will buy and smoke it. I'll run a pot shop, and y'all can buy it from me. We'll all get rich. This is better than a Mexican cat ranch, you know, where they raise rats to feed the cats, skin the cats, feed the cats back to the rats & sell the skins. Why, it's a virtuous self-reinforcing cycle. We'll all get rich as cat ranchers.

What? What do you mean, how will you earn any money to buy the pot? How can y'all ask such a questions when there are thousands of McDonald's around the country needing hamburger flippers? Don't y'all nip at my heels, now! This is precisely the same program Our Masters have been offering us for years -- we'll all get rich selling each other insurance policies and hamburgers and writing computer programs for each other without anybody having to produce anything at all or hit a lick of real work. All that we'll send to the Chinese.

So my plan is no different to Our Masters', except that it's better. Y'all will all be so stoned you won't care you're poor. Come to think of it, they may have beaten me to it.

Plop, fizz, fuzz, O what a relief it was! On 21 February 1931 Alka-Seltzer was introduced.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
21-Feb-14 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,323.90 6.80 0.5
Silver, $/oz 21.78 0.10 0.5
Gold/Silver Ratio 60.780 0.309 0.5
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0165 0.0001 0.4
Platinum 1,426.30 15.40 1.1
Palladium 740.00 3.70 0.5
S&P 500 1,836.25 -3.53 -0.2
Dow 16,103.30 -29.93 -0.2
Dow in GOLD $s 251.44 -1.74 -0.7
Dow in GOLD oz 12.16 -0.08 -0.7
Dow in SILVER oz 739.29 -4.72 -0.6
US Dollar Index 80.30 -0.02 -0.0
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,323.80      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,359.54 1,370.13 1,370.13
1/2 AE 0.50 674.63 697.64 1,395.29
1/4 AE 0.25 338.97 355.44 1,421.76
1/10 AE 0.10 138.89 144.96 1,449.56
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,291.10 1,300.10 1,326.36
British sovereign 0.24 313.49 325.49 1,382.72
French 20 franc 0.19 249.01 251.95 1,349.51
Krugerrand 1.00 1,344.98 1,354.98 1,354.98
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,338.80 1,353.80 1,353.80
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 761.19 695.00 1,389.99
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 337.57 354.12 1,416.47
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 140.32 144.29 1,442.94
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,587.99 1,598.99 1,326.20
.9999 bar 1.00 1,328.43 1,342.80 1,342.80
SPOT SILVER: 21.82      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 25.50 27.50 35.95
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 22.00 23.50 30.72
90% silver coin bags 0.72 16,066.05 16,316.05 22.82
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 6,245.15 6,395.15 21.68
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 2,682.00 2,237.00 22.37
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 218.20 224.20 22.42
1 oz .999 round 1.00 21.82 22.37 22.37
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 23.32 24.62 24.62
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,426.30      
Platinum Platypus 1.00 1,451.30 1,491.30 1,491.30
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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