The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Tuesday, 11 March a.d. 2014 Browse the commentary archive

Since we all have to balance our own budgets & can't for long spend more than we take in, we don't get it when it comes to government spending. When you can print your own money & force people at point of gun to take it as money, you can spend all you want. You don't need taxes for revenue, only for social control. Read that again.

Don't believe me? Want to see just how crass our masters are? Go to and read the 1945 speech by NY Fed President Beardsley Ruml (a New Deal apparatchik) "Taxes For Revenue Are Obsolete."

They don't levy taxes for revenue -- they don't need 'em. All federal taxes are about controlling your behavior, nothing else.

Res ipsa loquitur -- the thing speaks for itself. A chart just says what it says, & copper is saying it very loudly. It sank again today, 3.1%, to $2.95, well below $3.00. Copper is saying that it expects very poor economic activity. Very poor. Bad juju for the stock market.

Stocks kept on rolling over downward today. Dow backed up 67.43 (0.41%) to 16,351.25 and the S&P500 inchwormed down 9.54 (0.51%) ending at 1,867.63. Several indicators are beginning to show the effects of gravity rather badly. Copper is flashing a warning for stocks.

Stocks' stumble today sent the Dow in Gold & Dow in silver down. After puncturing its downtrend line and 20 day moving average yesterday, the Dow in Gold fell below both today, down 1.12% to 12.12 oz (G$250.54 gold dollars). Is the correction over? Has the plunge resumed?

Dow in silver nearly reached its downtrend line, then dropped away today by 0.63% to 783.11 oz. Both Dow in Gold & Dow in Silver appear to be rolling over, but no proof yet, just hints.

To remind y'all why I bother with this, the Dow in Gold & Dow in Silver measure the value of stocks in silver or gold. The primary trend (15-20 years) for the DiG & DiS turned down in 1999 & 2001. Both have been in an upward correction the length of the metals' downward correction (2011-2013). When they fall back through the downtrend line they will powerfully confirm that silver & gold's long walk in the wilderness has ended.

US dollar Index teetereth yet on the brink. Rose 2 basis points to 79.77 today. Meanwhile the euro which looked recently like it was to break out in a rally to new highs was ambushed by ECB statements today hinting that the Fed was not the only central bank that can do quantitative easing. Euro fell 0.13% to $1.3860. This is not fatal to a rally. A fall below $1.3800 would be fatal. In perfectly counterintuitive form today, the Yen rose on news the Bank of Japan intends to inflate more. Climbed 0.26% to 97.07 cents/Y100, barely above the 50 DMA (97.02).

Sometimes when I look at the financial and banking system & the fiat currencies, I feel like a drunk waking up off a four day moonshine & meth toot thinking, "How did it ever get this crazy?"

I looked at the computer screen this morning and liked to puked in my wastebasket. Oh, no! Look at that gold, pushing on $1,345! I felt rotten because I've been telling y'all about the likelihood of a pullback that keeps refusing to happen, and I though, "Oh, great! I told 'em to hold off & that blasted gold is going to blow through $1,360 like a mule headed for the barn."

Well, gold ended up $5.10 at $1,346.50, but silver lost 9.5 cents to 2078.4c. That boosted the gold/silver ratio to 64.785, highest level in a long time. I don't know why they're disagreeing, or why they haven't corrected, but it points to more strength than I give gold credit for. Still, drops in platinum & palladium leave me squirming.

Technically the MACD is pointing down, Rate of change is dropping, and stochastics are rolling over, but gold keeps levitating. If it escapes $1,355 it will run higher like a scalded dog.

Silver remains below its 200 DMA, but today reached up with a 2133c high and punched into the 20 DMA (2125c). Low was 2067, so the range is coming to life. On an end of day chart silver closed higher at 2088c. As with gold, silver is hinting it wants to rise, but hinting only.

I grow less and less comfortable waiting to buy. Start pecking at it.

I'm really proud of the work my our website designer Collin has done on our farm's website. I'm not trying to sell y'all anything. Just go take a look at There are pictures of my children and grandchildren and our animals & what used to be our flock of Great Pyrenees dogs, until I begin to fear that 27 was dogs to excess.

We have been working hard together, adults & children, to develop our farm holistically, and to state that in a holistic goal. (See Alan Savory's book Holistic Management for what I mean). I am very happy with what we have developed, & they've pretty well done it without much input from me. You'll find that holistic goal on the page "Our Philosophy."

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
11-Mar-14 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,346.50 5.10 0.38%
Silver, $/oz 20.78 -0.10 -0.46%
Gold/Silver Ratio 64.785 0.539 0.84%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0154 -0.0001 -0.83%
Platinum 1,464.00 -12.60 -0.85%
Palladium 770.30 -6.35 -0.82%
S&P 500 1,867.63 -9.54 -0.51%
Dow 16,351.25 -67.43 -0.41%
Dow in GOLD $s 251.03 -1.99 -0.79%
Dow in GOLD oz 12.14 -0.10 -0.79%
Dow in SILVER oz 786.72 0.35 0.04%
US Dollar Index 79.77 0.20 0.25%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,348.00      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,385.74 1,395.18 1,395.18
1/2 AE 0.50 686.97 710.06 1,420.12
1/4 AE 0.25 343.49 361.77 1,447.08
1/10 AE 0.10 141.44 147.61 1,476.06
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,314.70 1,323.70 1,350.44
British sovereign 0.24 319.70 324.45 1,378.29
French 20 franc 0.19 253.56 256.52 1,373.98
Krugerrand 1.00 1,364.18 1,374.18 1,374.18
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,363.00 1,378.00 1,378.00
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 775.10 707.70 1,415.40
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 343.74 360.59 1,442.36
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 142.89 146.93 1,469.32
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,617.02 1,628.02 1,350.27
.9999 bar 1.00 1,352.72 1,367.00 1,367.00
SPOT SILVER: 20.88      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 26.25 28.25 36.93
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 22.25 23.75 31.05
90% silver coin bags 0.72 15,536.95 15,786.95 22.08
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 5,967.85 6,117.85 20.74
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 2,093.00 2,143.00 21.43
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 209.30 214.30 21.43
1 oz .999 round 1.00 20.98 21.48 21.48
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 22.38 23.58 23.58
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,464.00      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,479.00 1,496.00 1,496.00
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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