The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Thursday, 13 March a.d. 2014 Browse the commentary archive

The Ukrainian crisis heated up today & money ran for the exits and a safe haven. US dollar index Tanked overnight, hitting a low at 79.28, but over the day traded up to close up two tiny basis points to 79.61. Those Nice Government Men had a close shave today.

Money ran out of the Euro, too, in a nasty one day turn around that probably marks the first step of a key reversal. Euro hit a new high for the move at $1.3958, then sank in one Brobdingnagian step to a low at $1.3845. Closed lower than yesterday, down 0.27% at $1.3868. Another low tomorrow cinches a key reversal downward.

Yen got the safe haven (if a bit radioactive) bid. Rose as fast as the euro plunged, up 0.94% to 98.26 cents/Y100. When trading seems so evidently motivated by crisis, it's a tough question whether any of the gains or losses will stick longer than the crisis' lifespan.

Money ran from stocks today, too. O, WEH! Dow fell 231.19 (1.41%) to 16,108.89. Speak to me, O Eyes, is that true? Yes, below the 20 Dma (16,329.99) & the 50 DMA (16,158.46). This is a grievous, deep wound & will probably continue tomorrow.

S&P was nearly as bad, down 21.86 (1.17%) & below the 20 DMA but not the 50 (1,829).

Dow in metals plummeted. DiS ended down 0.74% to 760.75 oz, touching the 20DMA. Dow in Gold tanked, down 1.79% to 11.74 oz AND below the 200 DMA (12.02 oz). A portentous break.

Gold climbed only $1.90 to $1,372.20; silver lost 15.9 cents to 2116.9c. Gold needs to clear $1,375, looks very strong.

Silver broke through its post-February downtrend line today to a new high for the move, but then collapsed and closed lower, below its 200 DMA. Really a lousy performance and first step of a key reversal, but that must be completed by a lower close tomorrow.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
13-Mar-14 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,372.20 1.90 0.14%
Silver, $/oz 21.17 -0.16 -0.75%
Gold/Silver Ratio 64.821 0.572 0.89%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0154 -0.0001 -0.88%
Platinum 1,478.80 3.10 0.21%
Palladium 778.75 1.80 0.23%
S&P 500 1,846.34 -21.86 -1.17%
Dow 16,108.89 -231.19 -1.41%
Dow in GOLD $s 242.68 -3.82 -1.55%
Dow in GOLD oz 11.74 -0.18 -1.55%
Dow in SILVER oz 760.97 -5.17 -0.67%
US Dollar Index 79.61 0.03 0.04%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,371.70      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,411.48 1,419.71 1,419.71
1/2 AE 0.50 699.06 722.54 1,445.09
1/4 AE 0.25 349.53 368.13 1,472.52
1/10 AE 0.10 143.92 150.20 1,502.01
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,337.82 1,346.82 1,374.02
British sovereign 0.24 325.32 330.07 1,402.17
French 20 franc 0.19 258.02 260.95 1,397.68
Krugerrand 1.00 1,386.79 1,396.79 1,396.79
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,386.70 1,401.70 1,401.70
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 788.73 720.14 1,440.29
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 349.78 366.93 1,467.72
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 145.40 149.52 1,495.15
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,645.45 1,656.45 1,373.85
.9999 bar 1.00 1,376.50 1,390.70 1,390.70
SPOT SILVER: 21.18      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 26.25 28.25 36.93
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 22.25 23.75 31.05
90% silver coin bags 0.72 15,712.13 15,962.13 22.32
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 6,054.88 6,204.88 21.03
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 2,122.50 2,172.50 21.73
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 212.25 217.25 21.73
1 oz .999 round 1.00 21.28 21.78 21.78
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 22.68 23.88 23.88
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,478.80      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,493.80 1,510.80 1,510.80
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
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Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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