The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Tuesday, 18 March a.d. 2014 Browse the commentary archive

Can we talk about something other than markets today? It's just the same old back & forth, & I'm afraid y'all are going to get tired of hearing about it.

Take those sorry fiat currencies, sorrier than gully dirt. They're gyrating back and forth like one of those old black GE fans on low, not doing a bit of good. US Dollar Index was practically petrified today. Had a 25 basis point range from 79.68 to 79.43, and closed up one lone basis point at 79.53. That does nothing and says nothing, except that nobody's interested in the dollar.

Euro gained 0.7% to $1.3932. If it intends to rally it's not in any big hurry, I'll say that. Yes, it's out there above the old top resistance, but why is it stuck?

Yen today gained 0.33% to 98.61, invalidating the exhaustion gap made yesterday, because those are never filled. Momentum is up.

STOCKS climbed again today. Dow bolted on a new 88.97 (0.55%) to 16,336.19. That's above the 20 day moving average, & below the last top, which was lower than the top before and the one before that. In other words, still technically in a down trend. But it if gets a leg over that last top at 16,505, we might see the last and final new all-time high, one that will hold for a couple of centuries. S&P500 rose 13.42 (0.72%) to 1,872.25.

Dow in metals reversed today. Dow in gold rose 1.44% to 12.05 oz (G$249.10 gold dollars) & cut through & above its 200 DMA and the Downtrend line. Whispers of a bigger upward correction coming. Dow in silver rose 2.31% to 785.45 oz (S$1,015.53 silver dollars), rising over its 20 DMA and smack up to its downtrend line.

Comex spot month gold lost $13.90 (1%) & closed at $1,359.00 Spot silver lost 41.3 cents (2%) to 2083.6c. Ratio rose to a new high for this move at 65.224.

Gold traded along above $1,360 until New York opened, when it dropped from 8:30 to 10:00 down to $1,351.10. After that it climbed steadily until 2:00 p.m,, when it began dropping off and ended the day sulking around $1,355. That takes gold back to the support/resistance level where this latest breakout began, and within stumbling distance of the 20 DMA ($1,344). Bottom boundary of there rising trading channel lies today about $1,340, so the area from $1,344 to $1,339 stands ready to catch gold. Another possibility is a fall back to the neckline where gold broke out in February, now about $1,290, near the 50 DMA ($1,293). That would have all the gold bugs puking in their wastebaskets & prove again the proverb's truth, "The Market is not benevolent." MACD flashed a sell signal today. Pendulum is swinging back to the downside.

O Woe! Silver fell back into its downtrend trading channel and below its 200 DMA (2096c). Not far below it will strike the top of that trading range it escaped in February -- that line stand about 2050c, right at the 50 DMA (2054c), a good place to halt a correction.

Up or down, I don't get too excited. The Fed & the yankee government are the truest friends silver & gold have. They will surely keep on flooding the market with money, and sure as they do, silver & gold will remain in a bull market and we will see greater gains from here than we saw from 2001 - 2011. Hide and watch.

If y'all don't know the great Southern writer Flannery O'Connor, you ought to. Bizarre and wonderful, and tragically short-lived. She once said, "Faith is what someone knows to be true whether they believe it or not."

I like to torture myself in the morning by listening to the windbags on National Proletarian Radio, the Voice of Dull International Socialism & Self-Important Do-Gooding. This morning they interviewed the somewhat less than sparkling US Senator from Illinois, Dick Durbin, to solicit his Deep Thoughts about in Ukraine, where he has just paid a meddling visit. This is similar to my visiting your house, complaining about the food and the furniture arrangement & telling you your neighbor called your wife "ugly," but let that go.

What caught my ear was this billion bucks the US is going to give/loan to Ukraine, part of which they will spend on military. Of course, there's no way a Ukrainian army could stand up to the entire Russian army, so that's all a colossal waste of money and of possibly of lives.

Then it hit me: it would be cheaper to buy every man in the country a rifle and a pistol, and a pistol for every woman, and teach 'em all how to make IEDs. Come to think of it, we could do the same in the US. Nobody in his right mind -- other than the present US government -- would take on a fight like that against a whole nation. And it would be far cheaper than a professional military. In the US, say half the 300 million folks are men, 2/3 old enough to handle a rifle. Buy 'em all a rifle with 1,000 rounds for $200 & teach 'em how to use it. That's an army of 100 million men for only $20 billion, and you don't have to pay 'em a cent of retirement. Militia makes sense, professional army doesn't. But what do I know? I'm no mor'n a natural born fool from Tennessee where we don't get to print our own money & know better than to meddle in other people's business for they might shoot you. We're nice, but we ain't that nice.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
18-Mar-14 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,359.00 -13.90 -1.01%
Silver, $/oz 20.84 -0.41 -1.94%
Gold/Silver Ratio 65.224 0.614 0.95%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0153 -0.0001 -0.94%
Platinum 1,461.20 -6.60 -0.45%
Palladium 771.75 -4.45 -0.57%
S&P 500 1,872.25 13.42 0.72%
Dow 16,336.19 88.97 0.55%
Dow in GOLD $s 248.49 3.86 1.58%
Dow in GOLD oz 12.02 0.19 1.58%
Dow in SILVER oz 784.04 19.43 2.54%
US Dollar Index 79.53 0.01 0.01%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,357.15      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,396.51 1,404.65 1,404.65
1/2 AE 0.50 691.64 714.88 1,429.76
1/4 AE 0.25 345.82 364.23 1,456.90
1/10 AE 0.10 142.40 148.61 1,486.08
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,323.63 1,332.63 1,359.55
British sovereign 0.24 321.87 326.62 1,387.51
French 20 franc 0.19 255.28 258.23 1,383.13
Krugerrand 1.00 1,373.44 1,383.44 1,383.44
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,372.15 1,387.15 1,387.15
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 780.36 712.50 1,425.01
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 346.07 363.04 1,452.15
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 143.86 147.93 1,479.29
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,628.00 1,639.00 1,359.38
.9999 bar 1.00 1,361.90 1,376.15 1,376.15
SPOT SILVER: 20.80      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 26.25 28.25 36.93
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 22.25 23.75 31.05
90% silver coin bags 0.72 15,368.93 15,618.93 21.84
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 5,942.78 6,092.78 20.65
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 2,084.50 2,134.50 21.35
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 208.45 213.45 21.35
1 oz .999 round 1.00 20.90 21.40 21.40
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 22.30 23.50 23.50
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,461.20      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,476.20 1,493.20 1,493.20
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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