The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Wednesday, 19 March a.d. 2014 Browse the commentary archive

What if we all got it all wrong? What if the real business of the cosmos isn't work and sweat and tears but joy? What if CS Lewis was right when he said, "Joy is the serious business of heaven." What if joy is the serious business of our world, too, and of all creation?

What if instead of the dreary round of self-improvement & economic purpose, the purpose of all creation is joy? Did y'all ever watch a dog? Ever notice how much a dog enjoys being a dog? Acts like a dog just for the fun of it? Ever notice that pigs dance? They do, especially when a storm is kicking up. And when somebody is playing, why do we say he's "horsing around"? What if our whole purpose is just to rejoice in being what we are? To play & write & dance and make music and sing just for the fun of it? To romp for joy in God.

Wow. That'd put a lot of economists & politicians out of work, let alone do-gooders.

FOMC press conference today demonstrated once more that famous stabilizing effect that central banks were created for. And as usual, the market's reaction followeth not logic.

Predictably, the FOMC announced it would "taper" by buying only $55 billion in US treasuries and mortgage backed securities. Yet that was piddling to the announcement that the Fed was only kidding about keeping interest rates low until unemployment hit 6.5%. After all, so many people have given up on ever finding jobs now that 6.5% target is getting right easy to hit. Now the Fed has discovered previously unrecognized "scars" in the economy that won't heal for two more years. Thus the Great Healer, The Fed, must keep interest rates low and raise them only slowly.

Rather perversely in the face of the FOMC's resolve to keep repressing the economy with low interest rates, markets interpreted the statement as immediately higher interest rates. Ten year treasury yield shot up 3.39% (bonds dropped) 20 2.772%, well above the 2.708% 20 day moving average, & above the 2.745% 50 DMA as well. -- this despite 15 of the Fed's 16 policy makers believe it will be inappropriate to raise rates this year.

I am not a Fed policy maker but only a natural born durn fool from Tennessee, & I believe this is all hogwash, hoakum, & hype. They're lying as fast as their lips can move. They have to keep interest rates down below the inflation rate to inflate away the debt & to keep the US government's borrowing costs low. They've fallen into their own trap, and can't get out. All the rest is lies, and damn the economy, full speed ahead. They are harvesting you like a farmer harvests a herd of pigs, & think no more of you than he does a hanging side of pork.

Leaving these disgusting my-honor-is-for-sale-cheap white trash behind, let's look at other markets.

Stocks took the FOMC announcement hard, but why I can't guess. Everybody knew the Fed had telegraphed its tapering -- no news there. And if there were a real recovery, rising interest rates really wouldn't slow it down. Actually, rising rates usually accompany recoveries. Makes no sense, but markets have become schizophrenic information junkies, blown from side to side by the latest news without the slightest regard for the next 24 hours.

Dow dropped 114.02 or 0.7%to 16,222.17. S&P500 rode the same sled, down 11.48 (0.61%) to 1,860.77. On the charts both indices bounced up to their short term downtrend line, hit it, and bounced down again. Momentum took a hit as the Dow closed below its 16,265.25 20 DMA and the S&P500 closed near its 20 DMA, 1858.43. Both indices are coiling up into a triangle which will break strongly one way or the other. Direction of least resistance is down.

The repulsive US dollar index rose 62 basis points to 80.15, clean out of its falling wedge and above its 20 DMA (79.94), both bullish signs. MACD also turned up.

The other two scrofulous fiat currencies are fairly mirror images of the dollar. Euro had broken out to the upside from a RISING wedge, above a long standing resistance line about $1.3900 & today fell nearly plumb through the wedge it had left behind. Closed $1.3828, down 0.75%.

Yen jumped off a cliff, too, down 0.885 to 97.95 cents/Y100. Pointed itself firmly earthward.

Gold lost $17.60 (1.3%) by Comex close at $1,341.40, then lost another $10 in the aftermarket after the FOMC's eructations. Silver gainsaid gold by dropping only 3.6 (0.2%) to 2080, then dropped another 17 cents in the aftermarket to 2063c.

I read several analysts, and had to laugh today that one of them was ruminating a BIG drop in gold and the other was chirping about what a bullish set-up had unfolded in gold and silver. Here's what the charts show:

Gold has traded in the selfsame upward trading channel since its December low. Today's fall was the last of three days that have brought gold to touch the channel's bottom boundary. It also closed below its 20 DMA ($1,345). From here gold might (1) bounce off the lower channel boundary & resume its uptrend, or trade down to its 50 DMA ($1,295). Gold is walking in some heavy boots here, my way of saying a lot of indicators point down. However, silver is gainsaying that weakness, & had a strong day, and that IS bullish.

Lo, is the man batty? Nope, he ain't. Silver yesterday traded down to about 2065c, broke that level today & traded as low as 2052c (never quite touched 2050) about noon, then bounced up to 2097c, and fell off again to 2052. A double bottom, and down only 3.6 cents on the day. Trading at 2063 in the aftermarket. Of such days big surprise turnarounds are made.

Of course, I might be just a fool spinning cobwebs in my brain, but silver did touch back to its 50 DMA today (2055c), a frequent target of corrections, and on the end of the day chart it closed unchanged. AND that 50 DMA happeneth to coincide, yea, to run atop of, the top boundary of silver's three month trading range, wherefrom it broke away stratosphereward in February. In plain English, silver broke out of that trading range, rallied to 2218c, & now hath fallen back to the breakout point for -- one final kiss good-bye, or to fall lower still? If you like to play guts ball, to take chances when you know the edge is on your side though the risk be great, then it's a ripe place to buy.

I may be scalped tomorrow, but I bought this evening. I'm just a durned fool. I'd always rather trust metal in hand than central bank functionaries in Washington. I just don't care for liars much, and never could trust 'em.

I want y'all to picture something. Suppose the #2 elected official in Russia made a trip to Toronto and Mexico City. Suppose further he said in public speeches, "I understand how worried y'all are that the United States might invade y'all again, as it did in the past, so I am here to assure you that Russia is on your side." I'm betting y'all would be pretty ticked off & consider that high-handed meddling.

So yesterday the US Vice President Joe I-Had-A-Hair-Transplant Biden went to Poland, Lithuania, and Estonia and said all this, but aimed at Russia. Look at it from both directions: if you were the Russians, how would you take that? If you were the Poles, Lithuanians, & Estonians, how much would you trust it? And if it would be high-handed meddling if the Russians did it, why is it not high-handed meddling when formerly bald Joe Biden does it?

Only a nacheral born durned fool would ask questions like this.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
19-Mar-14 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,641.40 -17.60 -1.06%
Silver, $/oz 20.80 -0.04 -0.17%
Gold/Silver Ratio 78.913 -0.708 -0.89%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0127 0.0001 0.90%
Platinum 1,451.20 -10.00 -0.68%
Palladium 768.65 -3.10 -0.40%
S&P 500 1,860.77 -11.48 -0.61%
Dow 16,222.17 -114.02 -0.70%
Dow in GOLD $s 204.30 0.75 0.37%
Dow in GOLD oz 9.88 0.04 0.37%
Dow in SILVER oz 779.91 -4.12 -0.53%
US Dollar Index 80.15 0.62 0.78%
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SPOT GOLD: 1,331.90      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,370.53 1,378.52 1,378.52
1/2 AE 0.50 678.76 701.58 1,403.16
1/4 AE 0.25 339.38 357.45 1,429.79
1/10 AE 0.10 139.74 145.84 1,458.43
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,299.00 1,308.00 1,334.42
British sovereign 0.24 315.88 320.63 1,362.07
French 20 franc 0.19 250.53 253.52 1,357.88
Krugerrand 1.00 1,347.88 1,357.88 1,357.88
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,346.90 1,361.90 1,361.90
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 765.84 699.25 1,398.50
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 339.63 356.28 1,425.13
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 141.18 145.18 1,451.77
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,597.71 1,608.71 1,334.25
.9999 bar 1.00 1,336.56 1,350.90 1,350.90
SPOT SILVER: 20.63      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 26.25 28.25 36.93
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 22.25 23.75 31.05
90% silver coin bags 0.72 15,250.95 15,500.95 21.68
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 5,894.10 6,044.10 20.49
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 2,068.00 2,118.00 21.18
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 206.80 211.80 21.18
1 oz .999 round 1.00 20.73 21.23 21.23
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 22.13 23.33 23.33
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,451.20      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,466.20 1,483.20 1,483.20
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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