The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Monday, 31 March a.d. 2014 Browse the commentary archive

Ahh, the little pee-puhl! Yes, we MUST think of the little pee-puhl!

Mother Janet today made a speech in which she tried to un-say her mistake at the last FOMC press conference. Y'all may remember -- or y'all may have already purposely forgotten it as an item too silly & disgusting to bother cluttering your cerebellum with -- that Mother Janet made the false step of alluding to letting interest rates rise in six months. Mercy! It was like giving bad whiskey& downers to a depressive -- stock market swooned at the prospect. So today she tried to correct that by speechifying that the Fed would have to keep interest rates low to help the job market. Stocks went manic.

All this sounds a bit like Louis XIV worrying how all his illegitimate children are going to make a living. Why does that concern you NOW? Isn't it a little late for that?

Besides, what does an academic and long time banking apparatchik like Yellen know what it means to strap on a tin bill and peck in the dust with the chickens? When did she ever meet a payroll? Or work two jobs just to keep food on the table? Or survive on unemployment? Ahh, yes, the little pee-puhl! Before you talk about 'em, you ought to know at least one, maybe two.

Our nobility is just as arrogant as aristocrats of the French Ancien RĂ©gime, but not nearly as classy or good looking. In the end they are just nouveau riche Lumpenproletariat who've been to college, or Jeeter Lester enriched by usury.

So Mother Janet's speech goosed stocks, but not enough. Harken, I will elucidate.

Dow climbed 134.6 (0.28%) to 16,457.66 while the S&P500 leapt 14.72 (0.8%) to 1,872.34. That sounds like hearty progress, 'cept it did no more than propel both indices to the top of that even-sided triangle & stop. Now maybe they jump through tomorrow, but they're needing larger & larger clouds of Fed hot-gas to inflate them. 'Tain't progress.

But with a drop in metals, today's Yellen-spellin' was enough to drive the Dow in metals up further. Dow in gold rose 1.7% to 12.82 oz (G$265.01 gold dollars). This corrects a little better than 50% of the fall from End December to mid-March. Garden variety correction.

Dow in silver rose 0.12% to 833.21 oz (S$1,077.28 silver dollars), correcting about 75% of the December - February fall. Both indicators have stretched way up into overbought territory, which hints they will unstretch soon.

The fabulous US dollar index, robber of widows & orphans, despoiler of nations, global parasite, betrayed its fans again today. It broke out upside from the little consolidation or flag it had formed, ran through its 50 DMA above with an 80.57 high, then sank like your glasses fallen out of your shirt pocket when you looked over the edge of the bass boat. Closed lower by 10 basis points (0.12%) -- puking sick weak action. Next move ought to be down. And this one was thanks to Mother Janet, too, since interest rates figure large in determining exchange rates, & Mama Janet said she intends to keep 'em low a long time. Hard not to conclude that the establishment WANTS the dollar to fall largely.

Euro poked up its head 0.16% to $1.3770, but remains in its trajectory off the cliff. No big comeback there. Yen fell 0.3% to 96.88 c/Y100, trying to break out of its trading range to the downside.

Mercy! I hope y'all are listening to me, because silver & gold look prettier than a new puppy here.

What! Have you lost what little mind you ever had, you nacheral born durn fool from Tennessee?

Maybe, but maybe I ain't that big a fool after all. Gold lost $10.40 (0.8%) today to $1,283.40 but silver only lost 3.8 cents (0.2%) to end at 1973.4. This disagreement shows up in the gold/silver ratio, which fell from 65.436 on Friday to 65.035 today.

Now I don't know nothin', not a durned thing, but I can look at a chart & report. Gold has fallen back a little more than 50% of its December-March rise, right back to the running together of the 200 & 50 day moving averages, back to lateral support around $1,300 - $1,295. Stay with me now.

From November through February gold traced out an upside-down head & shoulders reversal pattern. The neckline of that pattern strikes gold's price graph today about $1,283. So what? So after a breakout from that pattern, the market often trades BACK to that neckline for one final kiss good-bye, then turns around and races out the door. Other indicators are more oversold than government lies and propaganda. AND gold is skidding along, sliding down its lower Bollinger band.

What about silver? For the first time today I looked at both silver & gold & saw a similarity in the charts. If you call silver's reversal range from November through February an upside down H&S, & you have to look very hard to see it, a line drawn across the shoulders (not the neckline) stands about 1950c. So, too, the downtrend line from April hits there, the line silver broke through and above in April, so right now it is kissing back to that line -- WHOOPS, which just happens to coincide with the 75% correction point.

Put it on the razor's edge. Neither silver nor gold can fall much further than this without asking to fall a lot further. They will either stop & turn here or within a few points, or fall much further. I believe they'll turn. I believe this is a great spot to buy.

I have to get out of here. I love y'all, but we have a Hereford sow that gave birth to 10 piglets over the weekend, I haven't seen them yet, & the sun is about to go down.

Shucks, I forgot to tell y'all one more thing: Platinum & Palladium rose strongly today after falling hard last week. One more good sign.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
31-Mar-14 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,283.40 -10.40 -0.80%
Silver, $/oz 19.73 -0.04 -0.19%
Gold/Silver Ratio 65.035 -0.401 -0.61%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0154 0.0001 0.62%
Platinum 1,418.50 13.80 0.98%
Palladium 777.50 3.40 0.44%
S&P 500 1,872.34 14.72 0.79%
Dow 16,457.66 134.60 0.82%
Dow in GOLD $s 265.08 4.28 1.64%
Dow in GOLD oz 12.82 0.21 1.64%
Dow in SILVER oz 833.97 8.41 1.02%
US Dollar Index 80.24 -0.10 -0.12%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,284.60      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,320.57 1,329.56 1,329.56
1/2 AE 0.50 654.64 676.66 1,353.33
1/4 AE 0.25 327.32 344.75 1,379.02
1/10 AE 0.10 134.78 140.66 1,406.64
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,252.87 1,261.87 1,287.36
British sovereign 0.24 304.66 309.41 1,314.41
French 20 franc 0.19 241.63 244.68 1,310.58
Krugerrand 1.00 1,298.73 1,308.73 1,308.73
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,299.60 1,314.60 1,314.60
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 738.65 674.42 1,348.83
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 327.57 343.63 1,374.52
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 136.17 140.02 1,400.21
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,540.97 1,551.97 1,287.19
.9999 bar 1.00 1,289.10 1,303.60 1,303.60
SPOT SILVER: 19.76      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 26.25 28.25 36.93
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 22.25 23.75 31.05
90% silver coin bags 0.72 14,950.65 15,200.65 21.26
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 5,637.45 5,787.45 19.62
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,981.00 2,031.00 20.31
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 198.10 203.10 20.31
1 oz .999 round 1.00 19.86 20.36 20.36
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 21.26 22.46 22.46
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,418.50      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,433.50 1,450.50 1,450.50
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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