The Moneychanger
Weekly Commentary
Sunday, 6 April a.d. 2014 Browse the commentary archive
Here's the weekly scorecard:
  28-Mar-14 6-Apr-14 Change % Change
Silver, cents/oz. 1,977.20 1,992.70 15.50 0.8
Gold, dollars/oz. 1,293.80 1,303.20 9.40 0.7
Gold/silver ratio 65.436 65.399 -0.037 -0.1
Silver/gold ratio 0.0153 0.0153 0.0000 0.1
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$) 260.80 260.34 -0.46 -0.2
Dow in gold ounces 12.62 12.59 -0.02 -0.2
Dow in Silver ounces 825.56 823.64 -1.92 -0.2
Dow Industrials 16,323.06 16,412.71 89.65 0.5
S&P500 1,857.32 1,865.09 7.77 0.4
US dollar index 80.33 80.56 0.23 0.3
Platinum 1,404.70 1,449.40 44.70 3.2
Palladium 774.10 791.00 16.90 2.2

The lying government employment report was issued today, and although it was higher it wasn't high enough to please the stock market, pleased the bond market, and whacked the US dollar in the back of the neck. Silver & gold profited, and note that they rose for the week.

Before I say anything in this 24-hour time horizon commentary, I want y'all to step back & look to the LONG horizon. Nothing has changed: governments & central banks have no constraints on spending and money creation -- one feeds the other -- so they will keep spending & keep creating money until their trajectory lands them face flat against the asphalt. All the bogus stock market rallies engineered by money creation won't change a thing, & surely won't jump-start the economy. (Governments and central banks don't even have any jumper cables, just a hose to drain gas tanks.) Today the government/central bank Siamese twin is running the economy, and markets are not free, never mind what all the goofy conservatives & politicians tell you. If you want proof, try to open a business & you'll find out the true purpose of regulation, namely, to stifle the competition.

So out there on the long horizon you ain't gonna retire on your 401k or IRA or pension or social security, because those are losing value fast as a man bleeding through a carotid artery. Only two ways I know to protect yourself from these irrevocable trends: (1) get a recession- & inflation-proof business that generates a stream of income, and/or (2) buy gold and silver to hedge the currency's purchasing power loss.

Or, you could vote & write your congressthing. I'm sure the politicians will fix it for you.

Onward & downward! To markets!

If y'all want to see a chart of a market you do NOT want to own, go look at the chart of Facebook stock at This is a classic view of something that is about to sink like a Jumbo Jet in the ocean. It broke down through its uptrend line, traded back up to support, then fell off sharply. The walking dead.

Stocks today justified that uneasiness I have been expressing in spite of their higher highs. Gagging on the employment report, which really wasn't that bad, the Nasdaq lost -- mercy! -- 2.6%, N-100 lost 2.7%, Dow lost 0.95%, S&P500 lost 1.25%, Russell 2000 lost 2.2%. Loss was across the board, as they say.

Specifically, the Dow lost 159.84 to end at 16,412.71 and the S&P500 shed 23.68 (quite a case of dandruff) to 1,865.09. The bleedin' was ginral.

What meaneth this? Both indices broke through an upper boundary of a triangle, then fell back within the triangle. See Dow chart here, This makes the breakout look like a fake-out, a false breakout, a sign of coming weakness.

WHOA! Look at those charts of the Dow in Gold & Dow in Silver, and and

Dow in gold sank 2.25% to 12.59 oz (G$260.26 gold dollars). This could be the peak of correction we have been watching. Remember, the primary (15-20 year) trend of the Dow in gold is down, as it has dropped from nearly 45 oz in 1999. It will keep dropping until it reaches one to two ounces (G$20.67 to G$41.34).

Dow in silver has also turned down, as convincingly as gold. Lost 1.61% today to 822.49 oz (S$1,063.42 silver dollars).. 20 DMA lies beneath at 803.06.

US DOLLAR INDEX, defeater of hopes, betrayer of futures, stifler of prosperity, sank again today. Lost 7 basis points (0.08%) to close at 80.56. Hovering above its 50 DMA (80.31) it will probably rise more, but it's about a sick dog. No spirit at all in its rise.

Y'all be glad you don't own euros. Euro sank 0.12% today, now below its 50 and 62 & 20 day moving averages headed for the 200 about $1.3500. Closed today at $1.3701. Yen pulled a little 0.67% surprise rally-ette to reach 96.88 cents per Y100. Stay away. Lower prices await.

Frankly, I can't figure out why the bond market interpreted the lying jobs report as negative for interest rates, & don't care to guess. It did though. Bonds rose while the 10 year treasury note yield fell 2.29% to 2.726%.

What I love to see is gold rising against all scrofulous, scabby fiat currencies, & that's what we see right now. Against the pound sterling gold bottomed at 768.2, turned up, and today broke through the downtrend line & touched the 50 DMA and close at 786. Against the Yen gold turned at 13,180 a week ago, turned up, and today closed above the 50 DMA (13,400) at 13,460. Forget not the euro. Lo, the selfsame pattern, bottom a few days ago at 926.20, burst through downtrend line, punched the 50 DMA today, and closed at 951.

Today gold rose $18.80 (1.5%) to close Comex at $1,303.20. Silver jumped 14.1 cents to 1992.7c. Where does that put us?

Gold blasted the roadblock at $1,295 and jumped to $1,307.50, then settled back a little. Gold jumped above its 200 DMA ($1,296.75) and important 150 DMA ($1,292.35), plus lateral resistance from $1295 - 1,300. Walked through the downtrend line three days ago, and almost touched the 50 DMA ($1,309) today.

What more do y'all want? Okay, full stochastics have turned up, rate of change is racing toward the positive side, MACD is trying to turn up, RSI has turned up. Friends, gold will move higher next week.

Lifting up the horizon, Gold's weekly chart shows it above the 18 WMA & barely below the downtrend line from the 2011 high. Monthly chart puts gold at the perfect place to buy, right up against its long term uptrend line. So, no gainsaying in the weekly or monthly charts. Trend is embryonic, but up.

Silver walked through its downtrend line 5 days ago, after touching the downtrend line (day of its low) from April. Silver did not climb above its 20 DMA but the MACD is turning up and probably will cross upward for a buy signal Monday or Tuesday. Full stochastics have reversed upward.

Not enough weight? Okay, turn to the weekly chart. Silver skidded down to its downtrend line from the 2011 high (remember, it has been trading above that line for weeks), barely below its 20 week moving average (2026c), & closed up for the week. Weekly MACD is striving to point up. Monthly chart is near the long term uptrend line, and about to break out of a triangle formed with the downtrend from 2011.

Where's the fishhook? Well, I believe that silver & gold have completed their correction, but my count might be wrong. If so, they might rally, then fall back to the same or a slightly lower low as what we've seen. I think they've begun their next leg up, but markets have humbled me so I've learned to hedge. Gotten almost as proficient at it as a central banker.

It's time for y'all to buy silver & gold. Past time.

On 4 April 1818 the territory of Orleans became the 18th state known as Louisiana. When I lived there nobody could figure out whether Louisiana was the easternmost Arab republic or the northernmost banana republic. I don't know, but I'll promise y'all this. Folks from Louisiana have so much personality that it just has to come busting out somewhere. They are so much fun they'll tire you plumb out.

On 4 April 1902 the founder of Rhodesia, international adventurer & racketeer, Cecil Rhodes set aside $10 million for a scholarship for Americans to study at Oxford. It was part of his plan to extend British hegemony over the whole world and a one world order with it. He was a thoroughly corrupt, greedy, and nasty person who began the Boer War.

Tragedy struck the lives of millions of American children on 4 April 1984 when Bob Bell retired as Bozo the Clown after 24 years.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
4-Apr-14 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,303.20 18.80 1.5
Silver, $/oz 19.93 0.14 0.7
Gold/Silver Ratio 65.399 0.939 1.5
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0153 0.0001 0.7
Platinum 1,449.40 5.60 0.4
Palladium 791.00 1.90 0.2
S&P 500 1,865.09 -23.68 -1.3
Dow 16,412.71 -159.84 -1.0
Dow in GOLD $s 260.34 -6.36 -2.4
Dow in GOLD oz 12.59 -0.31 -2.4
Dow in SILVER oz 823.64 -13.95 -1.7
US Dollar Index 80.56 -0.07 -0.1
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,303.20      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,339.04 1,348.81 1,348.81
1/2 AE 0.50 664.12 686.46 1,372.92
1/4 AE 0.25 332.06 349.75 1,398.99
1/10 AE 0.10 136.73 142.70 1,427.00
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,271.01 1,280.01 1,305.87
British sovereign 0.24 309.07 313.82 1,333.15
French 20 franc 0.19 245.13 248.16 1,329.18
Krugerrand 1.00 1,320.14 1,330.14 1,330.14
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,318.20 1,333.20 1,333.20
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 749.34 684.18 1,368.36
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 332.32 348.61 1,394.42
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 138.14 142.05 1,420.49
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,563.28 1,574.28 1,305.70
.9999 bar 1.00 1,307.76 1,322.20 1,322.20
SPOT SILVER: 19.93      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 26.25 28.25 36.93
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 22.25 23.75 31.05
90% silver coin bags 0.72 15,032.88 15,282.88 21.37
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 5,686.13 5,836.13 19.78
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,997.50 2,047.50 20.48
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 199.75 204.75 20.48
1 oz .999 round 1.00 20.03 20.53 20.53
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 21.43 22.63 22.63
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,449.40      
Platinum Platypus 1.00 1,464.40 1,481.40 1,481.40
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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