The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Monday, 5 May a.d. 2014 Browse the commentary archive

There may be something more glorious than Tennessee in the spring, but I haven't seen it. Even its sweet breath changes day to day. This morning was cool, and the air promised that back in those hollers you would find secret springs hidden in ferns & wild azaleas. On warm mornings the air is filled with the fragrance of blossoms unnumbered. The tulip poplars are blooming, and every morning my driveway is besprinkled with green and orange petals. Mercy! It nearly makes your heart burst just being there.

( Y'all don't miss my special offer today at the bottom -- it's a good one.)

As I was observing yesterday, it doesn't happen in nature that the US dollar index closes within one point for four days. Today the deception gave way and the US dollar index fell 40 large basis points (0.5%) to 79.15. That whispers rather loudly that the Dollar Index will smash through 79. The October low was 79.06, and that's the last sky-hook the dollar can grab hold of -- possible, but doubtful. Like drawing to an inside straight. Lest y'all forget, a falling dollar helps gold & silver

Euro finally broke out with conviction and rose 0.38% today to $1.3928, above the upper channel line which defeated it in March. Once close over $1.3958 (last high) sends it sprinting for $1.4000 - $1.4300.

Yen must be catching a safe-haven bid thanks to the turmoil in Ukraine. It broke out over the downtrend line from June 2013. Rose 0.45% to 98.36. If it clears 99.5 it could reach 103.5 cents/Y100.

All this supposedly happened on good euro zone economic statistics, but since we know the euro government lies as facilely and continuously as our own, that's not much of an excuse. Recall that stalled markets often only appear to be dead, while under that mask they hide momentarily balanced fierce opposing forces. When one blinks, the other flashes a right hook.

Owch. Stocks felt that right hook today. Nasdaq composite closed below its 20 DMA, Dow touched & S&P500 neared. Dow tumbled 0.78% (129.53) to 16,401.02. S&P 500 fell 0.9% (6.94) to 1,867.72. Today's reverses carry both indices back below the downtrend lines they broke above five days ago, & make that breakout look like a fakeout. Closes below the 20 DMA would secure that interpretation. Since early May hath not historically been a happy time for stocks, this might mark their turndown. Stocks have run out of wriggle room: must rise or die.

Dow in silver has seemed the key indicator to me. After hitting a recovery high at 869.46 oz (S$1,124.15 silver dollars) on 1 May, it closed today down another 0.61% at 837.64 oz (S$1,038.01). A break this quickly is not what I expected, but never argue with a chart. MACD turned down yesterday, and other indicators have rolled over earthward as well. All this happens on stock weakness alone. What will happen when silver strength is added?

Dow in gold lost 0.65% to 12.64 oz. (G$261.29 gold dollars). Closed below its 20 DMA (12.43 oz). Not far above its 200 DMA (12.20 oz). All needles pointing down. What will happen next? More gravity.

Gold lost 70 cents today to close Comex at $1,308.30. Silver added 7.8 cents to end Comex at 1959.8c. Gold/Silver ratio fell slightly to 66.757 to one. (Perfect time to swap silver for gold. Call us.)

That gold action stinks, but I'm not sure whether it smells of sardines or government mackerel. US dollar index falls 0.5% and gold FALLS seventy cents? Oh, yes, and the check is in the mail. Either that indicates gold is awfully weak, an interpretation gainsaid by Friday's strong reversal close and key reversal, or the invisible hand of the Nice Government Men is acting to stem a panic out of the dollar thanks to a war in Ukraine and fear in the stock market. That fear is certainly present in the bond market. 10 Year yield has broken down (yields fall when bonds rise & vice versa). 30 year bond yield has also fallen out of bed & is bumping on the cold floor.

When things don't add up, there's usually a NGM finger on the scale. But then, I am only a nacheral born durn fool from Tennessee & always suspicious of the yankee government, especially when they say they aim to he'p me.

Let that be, since today didn't damage gold's rosy outlook, just roused raw suspicions. Gold remains above its 200 DMA (1,300.95) and 20 DMA ($1,301.38). Just above stands the 50 DMA ($1,317.00), which gold has a fair chance of climbing over tomorrow. Urgent that it cross $1,317 soon.

With a high today at 1975 cents & a close at 1959.8c, silver is playing footsie with its 20 DMA at 1962c. Key reversal from Friday confirmed on Monday remains in place. Now silver: get up there over 2000c.

Y'all ought to recall that when silver pulls on its seven league books it can leap breathtaking distances. Don't judge silver by the stagnation of these last 5 weeks.

Key reversals in both metals last Friday argue that silver & gold should move higher smartly. Gold & silver have turned up. Stop waiting to buy.

Lies, lies, & more lies. Considering that the yankee government has been in the lying business since before the Mexican War, how can you believe 'em today? Latest blast is from government scientists who assure us that global warming is real. Folks, I spent several years studying global warming, and I am here to promise you that it IS real, as real as the Easter Bunny, Santa Claus, Big Foot and the Abominable Snowman. Why, it's as real as the Loch Ness monster and Stalin's tender compassion. Yessiree, buddy, you can bank on that government report!

QUICK SPECIAL OFFER

I found some US $5 commemorative gold coins right close to their spot gold value, so I'm offering them to you. These United States gold coins commemorate various events and are minted to the ancient gold standard at 0.2419 troy ounces. I have only one (1) of the $10 commemoratives, so the first one to mention that will receive the one $10 (0.4838 oz) commemorative in lieu of two $5 commems.

This price is based on spot gold at $1,308.3 & spot silver at $19.60.

THE OFFER

One lot of SIX (6) each US commemorative gold $5 coins at $338.00 each for a total of $2,028.00 plus $35 shipping for a grand total of $2,063.00. That's a premium of 6.5% over melt value.

NOTE: I will charge shipping only once per order no matter how many lots you buy.

Special Conditions:

First come, first served, and no re-orders at these prices. I will write orders based on the time I receive your e-mail. Send email to offers@the-moneychanger.com

Sorry, we will not take orders for less than the minimum shown above.

Sorry, no sales to Tennessee or outside the United States.

All sales on a strict "no-nag" basis. We will ship as soon as your check clears, but we allow Two weeks (14 days) for your check to clear. Calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely and patiently rebuffed.

It increases your chances of getting your order filled if you offer me a second choice, e.g., "I want to order Three lots but if not available will take One lot." ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:

1. You may order by e-mail only to offers@the-moneychanger.com. No phone orders, please. Please do NOT order by replying to THIS email, because it will not reach me timely.

Please include your name, shipping address, & phone number in your email. Surprising as it is, we cannot ship to you without your address. Sorry, we cannot ship outside the United States or to Tennessee.

Repeat, you must include your complete name, address, and phone number. We will read your mind, but will have to charge you three times the price. Cheaper if you just supply your information so I don't have to read your mind.

2. When you buy from us, we cannot later change or cancel the trade. We are giving you our word that we will sell at that price, & you are giving us your word that you will buy at that price, regardless what later happens in the market, up or down.

If you break your word to us, we will never again do business with you.

3. Orders are on a first-come, first-served basis until supply is exhausted.

4. "First come, first-served" means that we will enter the orders in the order that we receive them by e-mail.

5. If your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation. If you do not receive a confirmation, your order was not filled.

6. You will need to send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. It just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours.

7. "No Nag Basis" means that we allow fourteen (14) days for personal checks to clear before we ship.

Want your order faster? Send a bank wire, but that's not required. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, you'll see your order in about one month if you send a check.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
6-May-14 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,308.30 -0.70 -0.05%
Silver, $/oz 19.60 0.08 0.40%
Gold/Silver Ratio 66.757 -0.303 -0.45%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0150 0.0001 0.45%
Platinum 1,457.10 9.70 0.67%
Palladium 818.55 1.90 0.23%
S&P 500 1,867.72 6.94 0.37%
Dow 16,401.02 129.53 0.80%
Dow in GOLD $s 259.14 2.18 0.85%
Dow in GOLD oz 12.54 0.11 0.85%
Dow in SILVER oz 836.87 3.29 0.39%
US Dollar Index 79.15 -0.40 -0.50%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,308.30      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,343.62 1,354.09 1,354.09
1/2 AE 0.50 666.72 689.15 1,378.29
1/4 AE 0.25 333.36 351.12 1,404.46
1/10 AE 0.10 137.27 143.26 1,432.59
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,275.98 1,284.98 1,310.94
British sovereign 0.24 310.28 315.03 1,338.29
French 20 franc 0.19 246.09 249.11 1,334.28
Krugerrand 1.00 1,324.00 1,334.00 1,334.00
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,323.30 1,338.30 1,338.30
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 752.27 686.86 1,373.72
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 333.62 349.97 1,399.88
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 138.68 142.60 1,426.05
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,569.40 1,580.40 1,310.77
.9999 bar 1.00 1,312.88 1,327.30 1,327.30
SPOT SILVER: 19.52      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 26.50 28.50 37.25
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 22.50 23.75 31.05
90% silver coin bags 0.72 14,993.55 15,243.55 21.32
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 5,566.65 5,716.65 19.38
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,957.00 2,007.00 20.07
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 195.70 200.70 20.07
1 oz .999 round 1.00 19.62 20.12 20.12
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 21.37 21.77 21.77
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,457.10      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,472.10 1,489.10 1,489.10
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

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