The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Thursday, 8 May a.d. 2014 Browse the commentary archive

I won't be able to send y'all a commentary this evening because I have to drive up to Paris (Tennessee, not France) to speak at 6:45 to the Volunteers for Freedom Tea Party meeting at the Paris Civic Center, 650 Volunteer Drive on "Reviving Local Economies." But I have two things that won't wait, one important and not so important

THE IMPORTANT: After heart surgeries in 2008 and 2012, my wife Susan is again having heart problems. In the past y'all have been kind and generous enough to pray for her, and I find myself a beggar again. Would y'all please pray for Susan's healing? I will be most grateful.

And I almost forgot: she also has to have a cataract removed (second time) tomorrow morning. Please add that to your prayers, too.

THE NOT-SO-IMPORTANT: The premiums on US $20 gold pieces have collapsed in the past two months. (Premium is the amount you pay over the coin's melt or gold value.) Usually I strongly DISrecommend these coins, because their premiums are too high & fated to disappear as the bull market progresses. Charts of the last 12 years plainly witness this long term premium decline.

However, their premium still varies up and down, and right now, it's down. Purely as a way to buy gold bullion, the US$20s are probably the most liquid form of gold in the US. They were minted before 1935, & whoever sees them falls in love with them. So when we can buy them at LOW premiums, I don't object to them. Right now they cost about what you'd pay for 1/10 American Eagles.

With gold at $1,290 the $20 Liberty (minted before 1908) in Extremely Fine grade would cost $1,402.50, a 12.4% premium over its 0.9675 troy oz gold content. At the same gold price, the $20 St. Gaudens type (minted 1908-1934) in About Uncirculated grade would cost $1,423.25 or 14% over melt. These prices include a 3.5% commission over wholesale, so if you are entitled to a lower commission from us, they would cost even less.

I am not pushing these coins since even at these premiums they are a bit pricier than I like, but if you ever want to own U.S. $20 golds, this would be the time to buy them while their premiums are low.

Silver & gold have closed on Comex, so the closes you see below are valid. So are the current prices, but stocks & currencies have not yet closed.

Gold held its own today, down $1.20 at $1,287.40 while silver lost 20.4 cents to end at 1909.4c. Both are calm and subdued today., but the pressure is on. They must stand fast here or suffer another downward spike.

God willing, I will return tomorrow.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
8-May-14 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,287.40 -1.20 -0.09%
Silver, $/oz 19.09 -0.20 -1.06%
Gold/Silver Ratio 67.424 0.651 0.97%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0148 -0.0001 -0.96%
Platinum 1,437.10 3.30 0.23%
Palladium 804.20 7.35 0.92%
S&P 500 1,882.44 4.23 0.23%
Dow 16,593.23 74.69 0.45%
Dow in GOLD $s 266.44 1.45 0.55%
Dow in GOLD oz 12.89 0.07 0.55%
Dow in SILVER oz 869.03 13.06 1.53%
US Dollar Index 79.37 0.13 0.17%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,288.90      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,323.70 1,334.01 1,334.01
1/2 AE 0.50 656.83 678.93 1,357.86
1/4 AE 0.25 328.41 345.91 1,383.63
1/10 AE 0.10 135.23 141.13 1,411.35
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,257.06 1,266.06 1,291.64
British sovereign 0.24 305.68 310.43 1,318.75
French 20 franc 0.19 242.44 245.49 1,314.88
Krugerrand 1.00 1,304.37 1,314.37 1,314.37
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,303.90 1,318.90 1,318.90
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 741.12 676.67 1,353.35
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 328.67 344.78 1,379.12
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 136.62 140.49 1,404.90
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,546.13 1,557.13 1,291.47
.9999 bar 1.00 1,293.41 1,307.90 1,307.90
SPOT SILVER: 19.12      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 26.50 28.50 37.25
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 22.50 23.75 31.05
90% silver coin bags 0.72 14,707.55 14,957.55 20.92
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 5,448.65 5,598.65 18.98
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,917.00 1,967.00 19.67
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 191.70 196.70 19.67
1 oz .999 round 1.00 19.22 19.72 19.72
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 20.97 21.37 21.37
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,437.10      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,452.10 1,469.10 1,469.10
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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