This morning I remembered that in Memphis, Tennessee when I was a college freshman in 1965, laundering a dress shirt cost 25 cents each, but the cleaner would wash, starch, & hang five shirts for a dollar. Today it costs $2.50 or more a shirt. Cheer up, though. I read an article today in the Jamaica Observer that noted in 1989, J$100 could feed a family of five for a week. Today, a pound of chicken costs J$200. I reckon that socialism puts a big load on a central bank, not to mention the poor -- but somebody has to pay. Oh, my -- something's happening in markets, & not too many folks are noticing. The tide is turning. Stocks fell across the board today. Dow Industrials Dover 119.13 (0.7%) while the S&P500 belly-flopped 12.63 (0.64%) to 1,949.98. The Dow stopped dead on its 200 DMA (16,818.79). Closing below 16,700 punctures the 4 month uptrend line. A close below 16,450 pierces the uptrend line from the March 2009 bottom. S&P500 is holding up a little better than the Dow. It's 1,949.98 close stopped well short of its 1,940.21 20 DMA. The uptrend from 2009 crosses today about 1,790. Stock momentum turned down today. Oh, my -- how about the Dow in Metals! "Collapsed" is the word that pops into my mind, but that may be a bit extreme. Dow in Gold today stopped at 12.73 oz (G$263.15 dollars), below both its 20 & 50 day moving averages, and only about 2% above its 200 DMA at 12.50 oz (G$258.40). The real test comes about 12.20 oz (G$252.20) where the DiG will meet its uptrend line reigning since August 2013. And my, Oh, my, that Dow in Silver! Since the 892.99 oz (S$1,154.57 silver dollars) high on 1 June, it has imitated those Mexican cliff divers at Acapulco. You can see a chart here, http://bit.ly/TgEJSV Right now it's more oversold on the RSI than it has been since August 2013, so you'd expect a correction. Dow in silver has smashed all its shorter term moving averages and is closing in on the 200 DMA at 790.02 oz (S$1,021.44). More, it has fallen down out of the bearish rising wedge in place since last year. At the risk of repeatedly repeating myself, I remind y'all that the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver have proven my most reliable indicators. Now they are shouting that the stocks' three year climb against silver & gold has ended. Time to swap stocks for metals. Like Wile E. Coyote hurtling over the brink in a cartoon, the US dollar index windmilled its legs at 80.20 and managed to climb back up on the rocks to an 80.39 close today, up 6 basis points. Range for the last 5 days has been 80.50 to 80.15. A close below 80.30 puts the dollar index at peril of a much longer fall. Today's save, however, inspired little. Closed at 80.39 when the 200 DMA is at 80.38. Triflin'. Euro rose a nothing 0.2% to $1.3606. Yes, it might be curling up for a rally, but not very likely. It's below its 200 DMA and spent all of may losing from $1.3993 to $1.3503. About the best to expect is a dead cat bounce. Yen is knocking its head on the downtrend line, but only managing to hurt its head. Lost 0.2% to 98.10 cents/Y100 today. It's building an even-sided triangle, so not hinting which way it will move. Gold closed above $1,318 resistance today at $1,320.90, up $2.90 (0.22%). Silver rose 12.9 cents (0.62%) to close above 2100c for the first time during this move at 21.0389. On five day charts both silver & gold have passed through resistance and begun what appears to be the next leg up. Gold hit a new high for the move at $1,326.60, but remember that April high at $1,331.40 is the hurdle to beat. Silver really has no fierce barrier until it reaches the February high at 2218c. Many's the observer who is holding back, watching to see whether silver can leap that hurdle. When she does, all those skeptics will turn into fans. Stepping back from silver's chart for a longer view, it has made what resembles but technically is not an upside-down head and shoulders, with lows at end-June 2013, end-December 2013, and 30 May, but no fireworks will be lit until silver passes above 2218c. That will likely mark the limit of this move, i.e., the first leg of this rally. Friends, I have checked a lot of other charts, and all of them indicate a certifiable break-out rally. Gold stocks are manic, Gold vs Bank stocks is thriving. Dollar index and stocks are struggling. It all points to the end of the 2011-2014 precious metals correction and beginning of the next rally. I'm not even going to breath or whisper my upside targets for this phase of the bull market, cause if I did y'all would just call me a nacheral born durned fool from Tennesseeand spit. Susan and I had a good time at that wedding in Georgia, but on Sunday we stepped off the asphalt just for a second into some thin grass, and that was enough. We are now serving as bloodbanks for thirsty Georgia red bugs, known in Tennessee as "chiggers." On 24 June 1314 at the Battle of Bannockburn Scots under Robert the Bruce defeated an English army more than twice their number. If the song "Scots wha hae" doesn't move you to tears, even if you're an Italian, your heart's dead. On 24 June 1861 Tennessee regained its sovereignty and independence when it seceded from the union.
Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.
— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
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