The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Tuesday, 1 July a.d. 2014 Browse the commentary archive

When I say things like, "This crisis of immigrant children pouring across the border is most likely a set up job," y'all are likely to think I'm crazy as a betsy bug, but I'm as serious as a renewal for a burial insurance policy.

Time after time the US public has been manipulated into wars & other disasters by set-up jobs or false flag operations. Fort Sumter was the first, when Lincoln went back on his promise not to re-supply the fort and refused to treat with Southern peace commissioners. Then there was the "attack" on the USS Maine that started the Spanish American War. The German submarine attack on the Lusitania helped pus the US into World War II, but the Germans took out full page ads in the NY Times warning passengers that the Lusitania was carrying war materiel & therefore a target. Most notorious was the attack on Pearl Harbor, where Roosevelt knew the Japanese Purple Code had been broken in September and knew exactly what the Japanese were planning. (Take not my word for it, read Admiral Theobald's "Final Secret of Pearl Harbor.") Then there was the Tonkin Gulf [non] Incident that was used to convince Americans we needed to go to war in Vietnam, and Saddam Hussein's vanishing Weapons of Mass Destruction. Some people even question the official story about 9/11.

Y'all need to read this article about Edward Bernays, Bernays was an Austrian, nephew of Sigmund Freud, who came to this country in 1892. He's known as the "father of public relations." In his 1928 book, "Propaganda," he wrote, "The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country."

Bernays held high ranking appointments in the US government during World War I, and some of his clients included P&G, CBS, Unite Fruit Co., American Tobacco, GE, Dodge, and the flouridationists of the Public Health service. He was no piker.

From this maybe y'all will draw some understanding why I don't believe anything that emanates from government, and doubt the reality of every "incident" designed to fool the people into accepting what they don't want.

I may be no more than a nacheral born fool from Tennessee, but I'm a well-read fool. On to Markets!

O, jubilate, friends! Happy days are here again. Dow closed at a new high today, up 129.47 (0.77%) to 16,956.07. Nor did the S&P500 lag far behind but rose 13.09 (0.67%) to 1,973.32. All against the seasonal pattern, they are still rising. Y'all just be patient. Stocks are only building up steam for the biggest crash of this century and the last.

So (I believe) do the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver agree with me. both appear to have topped, but both I confess still need confirmation. Having dropped for 25 calendar days, the Dow in silver has hooked up a tiny bit. Closed today up 0.7% to 804.56 oz (S$1,040.24 silver dollars), just above the 200 DMA at 792.32 oz (S$1,025.71).

Dow in gold equivocates more. It rose 0.85% to 12.78 oz (G$264.19 gold dollars). I call it equivocating because unlike silver, which has broken down from a rising bearish wedge formed over many months, the Dow in Gold still hasn't managed to break down out of its rising trend channel.

I await, as I am always awaiting, ore confirmation, but if I owned stocks, which I do not, I would sell them now and put the proceeds into silver and gold.

Just a little footnote here about interest rates. The Ten year Treasury note yield was knocked back two weeks ago when it met its downtrend line, but only made a higher low than May's low. Today it rose, and is building an even-sided triangle which it will meet above about 2.6%. Watch it: the central bankers' hopes all ride on that interest rate not rising.

After breaking down 26 basis points and through two support lines and various moving averages in the days preceding, US Dollar index roared back today with a three (3) basis point rise, almost enough to see if you put your nose right up on the screen. Just looks puking dog sick, and liable to drop to 79.40 whatever Mother Janet & the Nice Government Men do. If it breaks the last low, 78.93, nothing stands below to catch it.

I think they ought to change the name of the Euro to the Gyro to put some meat in it. Euro is just rallying away. Climbed over its 200 dma yesterday & hit its 50 DMA today but did not puncture it. Closed down 0.10% at $1.3679 but 'twill rise higher. Yen has also broken out from its short term down trend and risen above its 200 DMA. Just above about 99 stands the upper boundary of a long even-sided triangle. If the yen can clear that, it can run. Down 0.2% today to 98.58, touching back to its 200 DMA. Nothing negative about that, just went back for a final kiss good-bye.

Today silver rose 6 cents to 2106.7c. Gold added $4.60 & closed Comex at $1,326.40.

Gold closed right at resistance/support, where it has stopped several days. This was not a good day, although the Comex chart shows a rise. The all day chart shows gold trading up into a new high for the move at $1,334.90 while it closed lower than yesterday (remember, this is not the Comex chart, which closes at 1:30 eastern time, this is the all day chart). Yesterday's end of day close was $1,327.80, so today's action posts the first half of a key reversal. To confirm that gold must close lower tomorrow. I actually expect gold has considerably more upside left in it, to $1,350 or $1,370 at least, but I just report what the chart says.

Silver did not mirror gold's possible key reversal, but it did close the day lazily about the same place as yesterday. I don't like that or the rising flag on the chart, or the massively overbought RSI, which begs for a correction.

On 2 July 70 a.d. Roman General Titus and his army set up battering rams to assault Jerusalem's walls. The city fell in August and the Temple of Solomon was destroyed.

On 2 July the army of King William III defeated the deposed King James II (Stewart) at the Battle of Boyne in Ireland.

On 2 July 1836 President Andrew Jackson announced to Congress James Smithson's bequest of 100,000 gold sovereigns (23,540 oz fine gold) to found an institution in Washington.

On 2 July 1862 Congress outlawed polygamy. Whoops. They'll have to re-think that nowadays.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
1-Jul-14 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,326.40 4.60 0.35%
Silver, $/oz 21.07 0.06 0.29%
Gold/Silver Ratio 62.961 0.039 0.06%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0159 -0.0000 -0.06%
Platinum 1,513.50 32.50 2.19%
Palladium 855.00 11.45 1.36%
S&P 500 1,973.32 13.09 0.67%
Dow 19,956.07 129.47 0.65%
Dow in GOLD $s 311.01 0.94 0.30%
Dow in GOLD oz 15.05 0.05 0.30%
Dow in SILVER oz 947.27 3.46 0.37%
US Dollar Index 79.84 0.03 0.04%
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SPOT GOLD: 1,327.40      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,361.91 1,373.86 1,373.86
1/2 AE 0.50 676.46 700.20 1,400.41
1/4 AE 0.25 353.15 356.74 1,426.96
1/10 AE 0.10 140.60 146.01 1,460.14
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,294.61 1,303.61 1,329.94
British sovereign 0.24 314.34 326.34 1,386.34
French 20 franc 0.19 249.68 252.63 1,353.11
Krugerrand 1.00 1,340.67 1,350.67 1,350.67
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,342.40 1,357.40 1,357.40
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 763.26 696.89 1,393.77
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 338.49 355.08 1,420.32
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 140.70 144.69 1,446.87
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,592.31 1,603.31 1,329.78
.9999 bar 1.00 1,332.05 1,343.40 1,343.40
SPOT SILVER: 21.09      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 25.00 26.50 34.64
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 22.00 24.25 31.70
90% silver coin bags 0.72 15,472.60 15,722.60 21.99
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 6,029.80 6,179.80 20.95
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 2,099.00 2,159.00 21.59
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 215.90 216.90 21.69
1 oz .999 round 1.00 21.19 21.69 21.69
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 22.84 24.09 24.09
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,513.50      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,538.50 1,578.50 1,578.50
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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