The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Tuesday, 22 July a.d. 2014 Browse the commentary archive

Sorry, you can't get blood out of a turnip, and this turnip has been squeezed dry. Nothing happening in markets today, except a little bit in the US dollar index, & silver and gold weakening.

What do you expect in a summer market?

Stocks rose again today, breaking a 3 day down trend. This back & forth has been occurring regularly as the Dow builds a rising wedge. The S&P500 however, has remained in a rising trading range.

Today the S&P500 added 9.9 (0.5%) to 1,983.53 while the Dow rose 61.81 (0.36%) to 17,113.54. S&P500 will probably sprint for 2,000 before its tank is left gasless. Dow might hit 17,200. This should happen directly.

Strength in stocks is driving up the Dow in Metals. Dow in gold hit its downtrend line again today. It rose 0.85% to 13.10 oz (G$270.80 gold dollars). Indicators hint not very softly that it's going higher. You can see the chart here, http://scharts.co/1o76xpv Dow in gold has already laid two fan lines, which also hints at climbing further.

Dow in silver also points higher. It hit its downtrend line today, rising 0.16% to end at 814.62 oz (S$1,053.25 silver dollars). http://scharts.co/1o76Ssm

Y'all don't complain. I warned y'all this was coming. It should not last much longer.

US Dollar Index, that scrofulous & scurvy scion of evil, rose 23 basis points (0.29%) to end at 80.85. As much as you can trust anything in the smoke & mirrors Central Bank House of Fun, the dollar is saying it will rise to that Neckline, having completed a right shoulder, break through the neckline, & scoot towards 82.75. But first, let's see what it does when it hits that neckline. Chart at http://scharts.co/1rHU23T

Y'all may have all sorts of troubles, even chiggers or poison ivy, but at least you don't own euros. Euro gapped down today to a new low for the move, smashing the $1.3500 level and closing at $1.3469, down 0.4%. Below this level stands no support until $1.3295, the November 2013 low. Then support steps down to $1.3111 and $1.2755. Look at http://scharts.co/1o7aFFX, and add a year to the time scale to see the longer term chart. Nothing to stop a fall.

Yen is laying low, still working out into the increasingly narrow nosecone of that triangle. Lost 0.05$ to 98.60. Been taking Thorazine.

Gold was driven back $7.60 (0.6%) to $1,306.10, right above support, right near the uptrend line. The 300 day moving average is still holding it up, but gold is pushing toward the bottom. Will it break here? If it trades below $1,300 tomorrow, it will tumble to $1,290 or $1,280. On the other hand, if it rains airliners somewhere else in the world and gold closes above $1,330, gold has finished rising. My guess is gold has one more downward thrust left. Chart's at http://scharts.co/1o7d7wh

Silver lost 1/10 of a cent today, in a range from 2078c to 2112, and closed at 2096.5c. That's a dead market.

Silver hit the rising fan line from its early June low, remains above its 300 DMA, and is speaking out of both sides of its mouth. Silver has worked off much of its overboughtness in the RSI, but hasn't turned its other indicators up.

If silver breaks 2063c tomorrow, we'll get that other spike down toward 2035c. Chart's at http://scharts.co/1o7d7wh.

Yes, I DO know that this is boring and frustrating, like waiting for homebrew to finish fermenting. All the same, they will resolve shortly. By mid-August silver & gold ought to be rallying again.

On 22 July 1775 George Washington took command of American troops He really wasn't much of a general, but he had an enormous moral influence over men, and enormously stubborn resolve to win or die trying. Winning took him six years.

If you want to roll your IRA from stocks or zero interest rates money market funds to silver or gold, go see New Direction IRA, www.newdirectionira.com. If you mention that the Moneychanger sent you, they will deduct half the cost of your first transaction fee until Friday, 15 August 2014.

This is the time to jump from stocks to silver & gold. After a 3 year correction, gold & silver are ready to rally and enter the greatest rise of their bull market, while stocks are ready to turn down for a long, long time. Time to roll over now. (I receive no payment to recommend New Direction.)

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
22-Jul-14 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,306.10 -7.60 -0.58%
Silver, $/oz 20.97 -0.00 -0.00%
Gold/Silver Ratio 62.299 -0.360 -0.57%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0161 0.0001 0.58%
Platinum 1,487.60 -5.10 -0.34%
Palladium 873.85 -2.30 -0.26%
S&P 500 1,983.53 9.90 0.50%
Dow 17,113.54 61.81 0.36%
Dow in GOLD $s 270.86 2.54 0.95%
Dow in GOLD oz 13.10 0.12 0.95%
Dow in SILVER oz 816.29 2.99 0.37%
US Dollar Index 80.85 0.23 0.29%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,306.70      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,334.14 1,352.43 1,352.43
1/2 AE 0.50 665.91 689.28 1,378.57
1/4 AE 0.25 347.64 351.18 1,404.70
1/10 AE 0.10 138.40 143.74 1,437.37
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,273.14 1,282.14 1,308.04
British sovereign 0.24 309.44 321.44 1,365.52
French 20 franc 0.19 245.79 248.76 1,332.41
Krugerrand 1.00 1,322.38 1,332.38 1,332.38
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,321.70 1,336.70 1,336.70
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 751.35 686.02 1,372.04
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 333.21 349.54 1,398.17
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 138.51 142.43 1,424.30
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,565.91 1,576.91 1,307.88
.9999 bar 1.00 1,311.27 1,322.70 1,322.70
SPOT SILVER: 20.96      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 25.00 26.50 34.64
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 22.00 24.25 31.70
90% silver coin bags 0.72 15,165.15 15,415.15 21.56
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 5,991.45 6,141.45 20.82
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 2,086.00 2,146.00 21.46
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 214.60 215.60 21.56
1 oz .999 round 1.00 21.06 21.56 21.56
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 22.71 23.96 23.96
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,487.60      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,512.60 1,552.60 1,552.60
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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