The Moneychanger
Weekly Commentary
Friday, 25 July a.d. 2014 Browse the commentary archive
Here's the weekly scorecard:
  18-Jul-14 25-Jul-14 Change % Change
Silver, cents/oz. 2,083.80 2,058.80 -25.00 -1.2
Gold, dollars/oz. 1,309.20 1,303.30 -5.90 -0.5
Gold/silver ratio 62.828 63.304 0.476 0.8
Silver/gold ratio 0.0159 0.0158 -0.0001 -0.8
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$) 270.01 269.01 -0.99 -0.4
Dow in gold ounces 13.06 13.01 -0.05 -0.4
Dow in Silver ounces 820.62 823.81 3.18 0.4
Dow Industrials 17,100.18 16,960.57 -139.61 -0.8
S&P500 1,978.22 1,978.34 0.12 0.0
US dollar index 80.61 80.61 0.00 0.0
Platinum 1,489.20 1,477.60 -11.60 -0.8
Palladium 880.50 878.80 -1.70 -0.2

Before I start, y'all go look at http://read.bi/1o0KvQF. It seems some San Francisco company, clearly NOT related to Chef Boyardee, has a scheme to replace eggs with a plant based substitute. (Reader HG sent me this, and thanks.)

Sad, very sad. They actually believe that their egg-like chemical slop will be the same as an egg from a Rhode Island Red or Australorp or Buff Orpington. Their tender minds cannot bear either nature or reality, that an egg comes from a -- horrors! -- chicken's rear end. Worse yet, chickens crap all over everything. Horrors! How much better would a clean factory making egg-like slurry be?

Not better. Nightmarish. Cut off from nature and God. Dead to the wonder & mystery & love of chickens. Science uninformed by love, humanity, or morality.

And I wonder if this is a joke: "In February, Hampton Creek got $23 million in funding led by Li Ka-Shing Horizon Ventures. Li is Asian's richest man."

Li Ka-Shing? Li Cashing? Li Ka-ching! Are they pulling our legs? Is all one big practical joke on us, to see just how gullible we are?

Soylent green, anyone?

Stocks behaved very strangely this week, and strangely is seldom good.

S&P500 hit a new high close yesterday, 1,987.98, but all that gain was stripped away today when the S&P500 lost 9.64 (0.48%) to 1,978.34. Here's where it gets weird: that's 0.12 points above last week's close, so by the tiniest margin the week cannot be classified as the first part of a key reversal (break into new high for the move with a lower close). Add to that the Dow's failure to make a new high, and that all other indices fell the day the S&P500 made that new high.

Today the Dow tumbled 123.23 (0.72%) to close at 16,960.57. The weekly Dow closed lower, too. Both weekly charts show bearish rising wedges, leaving me thinking it is only a matter of short time before both indices collapse into a correction of at least 10%, with the ultimate high later this year.

The Daily Dow fell down out of it's rising wedge with a no nonsense "I'm falling to the earth's core" dive Closed beneath it 20 DMA (17,004) & the MACD & RSI were already falling. Look for a touch of the 50 DMA at 16,847.

Right now the uptrend line from March 2009 about 16,700. 'Twould be serious bidnis indeed if the Dow fell thru that.

Dow in metals had a zig zagging week, sharply higher & sharply lower. Dow in silver bounced off its 50 dma (836.81 oz or S$1,081.94 silver dollars) and fell 2,51% today to close at 815.61 oz (S$1,054.53). The correction's A-B-C shape allows it to called "complete", but a close below the 200 DMA (802.95 oz or S$1,038.16) is needed to confirm that. Better still would be a close below the last low at S$1,018.63 (787.85 oz). Indicators are turning down.

Dow in Gold's shape might also mark completion. It leaves behind a double-toppy appearance, with tops at 13.184 (G$272.54) and 13.200 (G$273). Today it plunged 1.18% to a farewell at 12.96 oz (G$267.91. It did cut through the 50 DMA (13.02 oz or G$269.15) & standeth not far from its 20 dma (12.92 oz or G$267.08). DiG will confirm its correction has ended when it closes below the last low at 12.645 oz (G$261.39).

My, this IS interesting, stocks faltering against metals. My, my.

That there US Dollar index is just arunning like a house afire. Cleared the neckline of an upside down head & shoulders it has been forming since March. Grabbed a respectable 20 basis points today (0.25%) and closed at 81.14. To break out of its range and prove a rally it must still climb over 81.50. Dollar's got a full load on, moving so fast it's leaving scales and a sulfur trail wherever it goes.

Euro is signalling a very sizeable fall. It dropped 0.26% today, complete with a gap down, never a good sign. Ended at $1.3429.

Well, the yen did it today -- broke plumb through the bottom boundary of that long narrow triangle. Opened up down there, but managed to end the day smack on the line & smack on its 200 DMA (98.20), closing down 0.02% at 98.20. Sure acts as if it wants to nosedive.

Ten year treasury yield tried to break out of its short term (since early July) downtrend, broke through the line yesterday, but fell back today to land on 2.469%. Needs to close above 2.55% before Janet Yellum starts getting that "I ate too many of them green apples" look on her gracious physiognomy, bless her little heart.

Gold fought back today with a $12.50 (1%) rise to 1,303.30 and silver rose 1% (21.2 cents), too, & closed Comex at 2058.8c. That brought the ratio down to 63.304 from yesterday's 63.339. Today's rise notwithstanding, no proof yet surfaces that the correction hath ended.

Sure, both metals touched their 200 day moving averages yesterday, which often limits a correction. Can't say that yet, and I still suspect we will see a short spike downward in both metals. Both weekly charts are trending down.

Overhead you will know this correction has ended when you see silver close above 2120 cents and gold over $1,325.50. Down below, if the low hasn't yet been seen, gold could hit $1,265 - $1,280, silver 1980 - 2000c. Lower is conceivable, but not my expectation.

Better take your chances buying QUICK. These low prices won't last much longer.

On 25 July 864 French king Charles the Bald ordered defensive measures against the Vikings. I love the names of these medieval kings: Charles the Simple, Ralph the Fat, Durwin the Squint-eyed. I think we ought to use names like that today. Think about it: Obama the Obtuse, Joe the Hairtransplanted, Nancy Nails-on-a-Blackboard, Boehner the Bland. It would add a rare element of truth to the political conversation.

On 25 July 1745 Charles Stuart a.k.a. Bonnie Prince Charlie landed on one of the Hebrides Islands to begin the last Jacobite rebellion. It began with victory and an invasion of England, but ended in catastrophe for the Scots after the Battle of Culloden on 16 April 1746. The English used the Rising as an excuse to apply ethnic cleansing to Scotland. Besides hanging and selling into slavery many Scots, the British outlawed wearing of tartans, bagpipes, and most other elements of Scottish culture. In one of those odd but frequent inversions of loyalty that conquered peoples show, the Scots became the most loyal subjects of Great Britain, legendary as soldiers in the Highland Regiments. In the same way today, Southerners contribute to the US army a wildly disproportionate number of soldiers, NCOs, and officers.

On 25 July 1850 Gold was discovered in the Rogue River in Oregon. You go there today and find a different kind of gold, the Rogue River Brewery. I went to visit it after I was almost arrested in the nearby Oregon State Aquarium for chewing gum. Y'all think I'm kidding, but I'm not. Boy, you are SOME KIND of criminal in Oregon if you chew gum in an aquarium. (If they tried that in Tennessee, our jails would be full in 30 minutes.) The state motto of Oregon, which is a strange mix of totalitarian old hippies and libertarian conservatives, is, "We never met a rule we didn't like." Whoa! Don't send me any scalding, scorching emails, you Oregonians! I love your state, and a person can eat and drink High on the Hog in Oregon. I just don't like not being allowed to pump my own gas. I am a responsible adult, regardless what y'all think of me in Oregon.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
25-Jul-14 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,303.30 12.50 1.0
Silver, $/oz 20.59 0.21 1.0
Gold/Silver Ratio 63.304 0.601 1.0
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0158 0.0002 1.0
Platinum 1,477.60 4.90 0.3
Palladium 878.80 8.85 1.0
S&P 500 1,978.34 -9.64 -0.5
Dow 16,960.57 -123.23 -0.7
Dow in GOLD $s 269.01 -4.55 -1.7
Dow in GOLD oz 13.01 -0.22 -1.7
Dow in SILVER oz 823.81 -14.62 -1.7
US Dollar Index 81.14 0.20 0.2
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,302.60      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,331.26 1,348.19 1,348.19
1/2 AE 0.50 663.82 687.12 1,374.24
1/4 AE 0.25 346.55 350.07 1,400.30
1/10 AE 0.10 137.97 143.29 1,432.86
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,267.87 1,276.87 1,302.66
British sovereign 0.24 308.47 320.47 1,361.39
French 20 franc 0.19 245.02 248.00 1,328.31
Krugerrand 1.00 1,314.32 1,324.32 1,324.32
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,317.60 1,332.60 1,332.60
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 749.00 683.87 1,367.73
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 332.16 348.45 1,393.78
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 138.08 141.98 1,419.83
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,559.42 1,570.42 1,302.50
.9999 bar 1.00 1,307.16 1,318.60 1,318.60
SPOT SILVER: 20.57      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 25.00 26.50 34.64
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 22.00 24.25 31.70
90% silver coin bags 0.72 14,846.98 15,096.98 21.11
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 5,874.93 6,024.93 20.42
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 2,046.50 2,106.50 21.07
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 210.65 211.65 21.17
1 oz .999 round 1.00 20.67 21.17 21.17
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 22.32 23.57 23.57
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,477.60      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Platinum Platypus 1.00 1,502.60 1,542.60 1,542.60
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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