The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Tuesday, 29 July a.d. 2014 Browse the commentary archive

This has to be fast because I have to drive up to the hospital in Columbia where one of my best friends in the world has been taken. I seldom ask y'all for favors, but I'm asking one today: Please pray that God would heal my dear friend Daniel Freemon. His wife died last 5 November and he has a six year old daughter.

I'll make this brief.

Stocks continued to erode. Dow lost 70.45 (0.42%) to 16,912.11. S&P500 did worse, down 8.96 (0.445%) to 1,969.95. Both closed dead at the bottom of their range today. Both have fallen out of rising wedges. Acting as if they want to fall to the 50 DMA, but could turn around in the next day or so. If not, will drop much lower.

US dollar index confirmed an uptrend with a 19 basis point (0.23%) rise to an 81.32 close. Still must cross 81.50 to confirm the rally.

Gold today dropped $5.00 (0.38%) to $1,298.50, crushing support at $1,305 & $1,300. Kept on trading lower in the aftermarket. Some support waits at $1,295, but downward momentum suggests gold will fall below its last low at $1,287.50. Needs a close above $1,320 to reverse.

Silver & gold gainsaid each other today, gold down $5 and silver up two measly cents. 2050c is showing itself stronger than I expected, but still look for a further drop to 2000c or 1975c.

Any sharp, sudden drop in silver & gold offers Y'ALL the opportunity to load up the boat. Don't pass it up.

Can't think any more, must run. Please pray for Daniel.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
29-Jul-14 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,298.30 -5.00 -0.38%
Silver, $/oz 20.55 0.02 0.10%
Gold/Silver Ratio 63.190 -0.305 -0.48%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0158 0.0001 0.48%
Platinum 1,483.20 -6.20 -0.42%
Palladium 879.30 -0.45 -0.05%
S&P 500 1,969.95 -8.96 -0.45%
Dow 16,912.11 -70.48 -0.42%
Dow in GOLD $s 269.28 -0.08 -0.03%
Dow in GOLD oz 13.03 -0.00 -0.03%
Dow in SILVER oz 823.13 -4.24 -0.51%
US Dollar Index 81.32 0.19 0.23%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,299.50      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,329.39 1,344.98 1,344.98
1/2 AE 0.50 662.24 685.49 1,370.97
1/4 AE 0.25 345.73 349.24 1,396.96
1/10 AE 0.10 137.64 142.95 1,429.45
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,266.13 1,275.13 1,300.88
British sovereign 0.24 307.74 319.74 1,358.27
French 20 franc 0.19 244.44 247.42 1,325.21
Krugerrand 1.00 1,311.20 1,321.20 1,321.20
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,314.50 1,329.50 1,329.50
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 747.21 682.24 1,364.48
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 331.37 347.62 1,390.47
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 137.75 141.65 1,416.46
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,552.58 1,563.58 1,296.82
.9999 bar 1.00 1,304.05 1,315.50 1,315.50
SPOT SILVER: 20.59      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 25.00 26.50 34.64
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 22.00 24.25 31.70
90% silver coin bags 0.72 14,829.10 15,079.10 21.09
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 5,882.30 6,032.30 20.45
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 2,049.00 2,109.00 21.09
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 210.90 211.90 21.19
1 oz .999 round 1.00 20.69 21.19 21.19
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 22.34 23.59 23.59
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,483.20      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,508.20 1,548.20 1,548.20
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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