The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Tuesday, 26 August a.d. 2014 Browse the commentary archive

The headlines screamed that the S&P500 closed above 2000, & that's true -- by 0.02, because it rose 0.11% or 2.10 to close at 2,000.2, a new high close and a new intraday high, also (2005.04).

Dow (barely) made a new intraday high at 17,153.80 over 17 July's 17,151.56. Dow rose 29.83 (0.17%) to close at 17,106.70 , not a new high close.

That brings the S&P500 close to the 2,020 top of its upper range line. Both indices have posted double tops, but that says nothing unless followed by a significant decline. Indicators are stretched out to the upside. It's a mania, so nearly impossible to predict.

Dow in gold dropped today, 0.46% to 13.31 oz (G$275.14 gold dollar). Dow in silver rose 0.89% to 884.12 oz (S$1,143.10 silver dollars). Somewhere soon we should see double tops and turns in both these indicators. What's the answer for anxiousness? Simply to watch patiently.

US Dollar Index, sucking tick on the world's economic jugular vein, rose another 11 basis points (0.13%) today to 82.69, only six basis points off my 82.75 target. Can it rise higher? Certainly, but it is now in the fifth leg up of this advance, which argues for a soon end to upwardness. RSI is more overbought than Facebook. 'Twill break soon, or my name isn't Barack Obama.

Euro continues to fall, another 0.16% today to $1.3171. It has left two gaps behind and reached the target implied by the little narrow triangle it broke down from, and it is more oversold than government promises to care for you in old age. Ought to turn up soon, unless of course the Europeans do something else stupid like sanctions on Russia or their own brand of Quantitative Easing -- which is an ever present possibility.

Yen closed flat today at 96.12 but traded higher during the day. In other words, it bounced off the bottom boundary of its 9 month trading range. Tells us nothing yet, since it would pause here anyway even if it planed to punch through and drop to the bottom of the Pacific.

I don't talk about it much but I watch the 10 year Treasury note yield every day. It plunged through important support line early in August, but has since made a double bottom -- on spikes, no less -- & may turn around if it can close through its 20 DMA, now 2.436%. Closed today at 2.391%.

I seldom use a cell phone, but I am prone to peak at the gold price early in the morning. I was pleased today, as it was already higher. Gold reached $1,291.90 today, but fell back during the day to close Comex at $1,283.80, up $6.50. In fact gold tried twice to break through $1,290, once about 3:00 a.m. Eastern time, and again about 9:30.

This reminds me of George Washington. He was a terrible tactician & general, but he had one quality that made him victorious: he wouldn't quit. No matter how many times he was beaten, no matter how much congress quarreled & quibbled and backbit, no matter how hopeless the Americans' outlook appeared, he never quit.

In a significantly lesser matter, gold reminds me today of Washington. It's coming back. It's hammering at the ceiling, then hammering again. It's climbed back above its 200 day moving average after bouncing off that uptrend line from the December low.

Tomorrow above gold lurks the downtrend line form the October 2012 high about $1,297.50. That is gold's first step to breaking free.

Silver's performance today was unlike gold's. It climbed to a high about 9:30 a.m. Eastern time, then broke and slid back to 1940c. It closed Comex up 2.8 cents (0.14%) at 1938.6. Yesterday it fell 2.8 cents. What is this, a game?

Now y'all listen. Go look at http:/http://scharts.co/1AS4RVt, the silver chart. Notice that big black line delineating today's jump, although silver fell back. That green trend line silver has been sliding down is the downtrend line from the August 2013 high, exactly a year ago.

Just above silver is its 20 DMA at 1982c. It needs to cross that first, but the first formidable hurdle is 2000c, and the 200 DMA now about the same spot, namely, 2010c. This is better than silver has looked for more than a month.

On 26 August 1862 Confederate General Stonewall Jackson seized Manassas Junction, Virginia. Jackson had figured out and proved there that the rifle with its much greater accuracy had thrown the balance of power in battle to the defensive side. SPECIAL OFFER -- TIME TRAVEL

Did y'all ever wish you could travel back in time? Here's your ticket: US $20 Double Eagles, the great gold coin of the classical U.S. gold standard.

These big golden cartwheels contain nearly a full ounce of gold (0.9675 troy ounce). The obverse shows a head of Liberty, the reverse the heraldic American Eagle. These coins were minted in the same weight and fineness (21.5 karat or 90% pure) from 1850 through 1907.

The long sleepy doldrums in the gold market have eroded the premium on all grades of US $20 gold pieces, and that's just what attracted my attention. You can buy these Very Fine (VF) grade $20 Liberty Double Eagles for $1,335.25, only 7.5% over their gold value. That's only about $10 an ounce more than you would pay for currently minted US American Eagles.

Which would I rather have, an American Eagle minted last year or these $20 Double Eagles minted more than 100 years ago? Which would be easier to sell? The question answers itself. Normally I wouldn't recommend any numismatic coins because they carry too high a premium, but at these low premiums they're a reasonable buy either as an investment in gold bullion or a survival coin.

Note that "Very Fine" grade is a circulated, not a Mint State grade, so these coins will show some wear. I guarantee however that they have full gold content. Spot price basis is $1,284.00. Dates are our choice. OFFER NO. 1

Two (2) each VERY FINE $20 Liberty-type gold Double Eagles at $1,335.25 each for a total of $2,670.50 plus $35 shipping for a grand total of $2,705.50. That's a premium of 7.5% over melt value. One lot totals 1.9350 troy oz. fine gold

NOTE: I will charge shipping only once per order no matter how many lots you buy. OFFER NO. 2

Four (4) each VERY FINE $20 Liberty-type gold Double Eagles at $1,335.25 each for a total of $5,341.00 plus $35 shipping for a grand total of $5,376.00. That's a premium of 7.5% over melt value. One lot totals 3.8700 troy oz. fine gold OFFER NO. 3

Ten (10) each VERY FINE $20 Liberty-type gold Double Eagles at $1335.250 each for a total of $13,352.50 plus $35 shipping for a grand total of $13,387.50. That's a premium of 7.5% over melt value. One lot totals 9.6750 troy oz. fine gold

NOTE: I will charge shipping only once per order no matter how many lots you buy.

Special Conditions:

First come, first served, and no re-orders at these prices. I will write orders based on the time I receive your email Send email to offers@the-moneychanger.com

Sorry, we will not take orders for less than the minimum shown above.

All sales on a strict "no-nag" basis. We will ship as soon as your check clears, but we allow Two weeks (14 days) for your check to clear. Calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely and patiently rebuffed.

It increases your chances of getting your order filled if you offer me a second choice, e.g., "I want to order Three lots of Offer #3 but if not available will take One lot of Offer #2." ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:

1. You may order by e-mail only to offers@the-moneychanger.com. No phone orders, please. Please do NOT order by replying to THIS email, because it will not reach me timely.

Please include your name, shipping address, & phone number in your email. Surprising as it is, we cannot ship to you without your address. Sorry, we cannot ship outside the United States or to Tennessee.

Repeat, you must include your complete name, address, and phone number. We will read your mind, but will have to charge you three times the price. Cheaper if you just supply your information so I don't have to read your mind.

2. When you buy from us, we cannot later change or cancel the trade. We are giving you our word that we will sell at that price, & you are giving us your word that you will buy at that price, regardless what later happens in the market, up or down.

If you break your word to us, we will never again do business with you.

3. Orders are on a first-come, first-served basis until supply is exhausted.

4. "First come, first-served" means that we will enter the orders in the order that we receive them by e-mail.

5. If your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation. If you do not receive a confirmation, your order was not filled.

6. You will need to send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. It just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours.

7. "No Nag Basis" means that we allow fourteen (14) days for personal checks to clear before we ship.

Want your order faster? Send a bank wire, but that's not required. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, you'll see your order in about one month if you send a check.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
26-Aug-14 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,283.80 6.50 0.51%
Silver, $/oz 19.39 0.03 0.14%
Gold/Silver Ratio 66.223 0.240 0.36%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0151 -0.0001 -0.36%
Platinum 1,421.60 1.20 0.08%
Palladium 888.70 -1.05 -0.12%
S&P 500 2,000.02 2.10 0.11%
Dow 17,106.70 29.83 0.17%
Dow in GOLD $s 275.45 -0.92 -0.33%
Dow in GOLD oz 13.33 -0.04 -0.33%
Dow in SILVER oz 882.43 0.26 0.03%
US Dollar Index 82.69 0.11 0.13%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,283.20      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,315.28 1,328.11 1,328.11
1/2 AE 0.50 660.33 676.89 1,353.78
1/4 AE 0.25 330.17 344.86 1,379.44
1/10 AE 0.10 134.63 140.51 1,405.10
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,248.99 1,257.99 1,283.40
British sovereign 0.24 303.88 315.88 1,341.88
French 20 franc 0.19 241.37 244.37 1,308.91
Krugerrand 1.00 1,296.03 1,306.03 1,306.03
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,298.20 1,313.20 1,313.20
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 737.84 673.68 1,347.36
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 327.22 343.26 1,373.02
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 136.02 139.87 1,398.69
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,537.74 1,548.74 1,284.52
.9999 bar 1.00 1,287.69 1,299.20 1,299.20
SPOT SILVER: 19.39      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 26.00 28.50 37.25
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 22.00 24.00 31.37
90% silver coin bags 0.72 13,967.53 14,253.53 19.94
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 5,526.83 5,676.83 19.24
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,928.50 1,988.50 19.89
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 198.85 199.85 19.99
1 oz .999 round 1.00 19.49 19.99 19.99
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 21.14 22.39 22.39
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,421.60      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,446.60 1,486.60 1,486.60
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

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