The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Tuesday, 23 September a.d. 2014 Browse the commentary archive

I remember an old Beetle Bailey cartoon one time where Sarge beat Beetle up. In the last frame you can see a mutilated Beetle musing, "How come beauty is only skin deep, but ugly goes clean through?"

In the same way, did you ever notice how hard it is for good & true ideas to take root, but how persistent dumb, wrong ideas can be? Take global warming, for example. Yesterday 400,000 protesters allegedly (if you can believe the media count) marched in the "People's Climate March" in New York to beg the politicians to save us before we are all roasted to crispy French fries by climate change.

Whoops -- there is no global warming, no facts, just political science advanced by those interested in advancing their careers, supported by those who will profit.

How can I be so sure? Because in 1993 I wrote with the late Larry Abraham an exposé of the environmental movement, THE GREENING. It's all there, how the environmental movement was created out of whole cloth by Our Masters for a specific end: to make them big money.

Not long ago our former publisher found a few copies of THE GREENING & asked if I wanted them. I thought I ought to read it again before I tried to sell to unsuspecting readers.

I'll be switched if it wasn't right on the mark, and even though it was written nearly 20 years ago, it has everything necessary to explode the whole global warming environmental scam sky high. And it's funny, too.

So I bought all the remaining copies of The Greening because, shucks, somebody can still wring a little bit of knowledge and personal freedom from it. Whoa -- I failed to mention that there are deep spiritual implications in The Greening, too, an attempt to re-install pagan earth worship.

You can purchase The Greening at for $14 postpaid (it costs me $4 to pack and ship it. And it comes with a money back guarantee. If you don't like it, we'll give you double your global warming back.

Now, today's markets:

Oddly, the 5 day US dollar chart shows highs above 84.80 on Wednesday 17 September and Monday 22 September, with a big drop until noon today and a high lower than yesterday's. That leaves behind what looks like a double top & beginning of a reversal. Needs to close below 84 to confirm that reversal. Today it closed unchanged at 84.79.

Japanese Yen tried to rise today but was slapped back. Lost 0.06% to 91.83 cents/Y100. Euro played by the same script, rising strongly early but closing near the bottom of its range for a 0.01% loss to $1.2846.

Stocks had a rough day, following through downward after that nose cone top. S&P500 lost 11.52 (0.68%) to 1,982.77. Dow sank a hefty 116.87 (0.68%) to 17,055.87.

S&P500 is all negative today. It dropped way below its 20 DMA (1,998.04) and isn't too far from its 50 DMA below that (1,976). RSI has turned negative, along with MACD and full stochastics.

Dow today closed below its 20 DMA (17,104.21). RSI at 50.45 didn't quite close below 50, but the MACD & Full Stochastics turned down. Gravity will control of the next big move, and that right soon.

Both the Dow in Gold & Dow in silver have plunged sharply. Dow in gold shrank today by 1.33% to 13.94 (G$288.16 gold dollars). RSI has moved down from grotesquely overbought to merely overbought. Must close below that December high at 13.80 (G$285.27) & then the 20 DMA at 13.68 (G$282.79) to confirm a downturn.

Dow in silver dropped 0.9% to 959.81 oz (S$1,240.97 silver dollars). 20 DMA awaits at 909.03 oz (S$1,171.43). Remains grotesquely overbought.

Gold rose $4.20 to $1,221.00 on Comex. Silver rose a piddling 1.4 cents to 1771.3 cents. Both closes belie today's underlying strength.

On a five day chart gold has made a rounding bottom. Today it came up out of that bowl about 5:30 a.m. with a break through $1,225 and rose in steps to $1,237 by 8:30. Rest of the day it backed off, down to $1,220 again at noon. Rest of the day it oscillated between $1,220 and $1.225.

Gold today pierced but did not quite close above its downtrend line in place since September began. It has barely moved up from grotesquely oversold, and other indicators appear to be turning up. Today's gains were confirmed by rising volume.

Silver made a V-bottom at 1733c before Monday's market opened in the US. Since then it hasn't traded below 1760. Today I opened strong and ran to 1799c about 8:30 a.,. It fell off that rise and spent the rest of the day riding 1775 - 1780c. As long as silver holds above 1760c we can presume it has reversed upward.

Unlike gold, silver has not yet crossed above its downtrend line that began late in August. It needs a price above 1825c to accomplish that.

I got to thinking about that gold/silver ratio. It gapped up three days ago, and today rose once more to 68.932. That corrects 70.8% of its rise from the April 2011 low. A 75% correction would lift it to 71.06. A drop in that ratio below 67.5 would help confirm a reversal upward for metals.

I may be foolish, but I bought both silver & gold today. Considerable amount.

Friend of mine called today to point out that the premiums on some storage scheme silver has reached the point where you can swap that for physical and roughly break even. If you are in one of those schemes and your silver has a 5 or 6% premium, you can almost break even swapping to physicals.

Just to prove how persistent dumb, wrong ideas can be, on 23 September 1973 Argentine president Juan Peron, ousted in 1955, was returned to power.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
23-Sep-14 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,221.00 4.20 0.35%
Silver, $/oz 17.71 0.01 0.08%
Gold/Silver Ratio 68.932 0.183 0.27%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0145 -0.0000 -0.27%
Platinum 1,334.20 2.50 0.19%
Palladium 815.25 12.35 1.54%
S&P 500 1,982.77 -11.52 -0.58%
Dow 17,055.87 -116.87 -0.68%
Dow in GOLD $s 288.76 -2.98 -1.02%
Dow in GOLD oz 13.97 -0.14 -1.02%
Dow in SILVER oz 962.90 -7.36 -0.76%
US Dollar Index 84.79 0.00 0.00%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,223.20      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,252.56 1,266.01 1,266.01
1/2 AE 0.50 629.43 645.24 1,290.48
1/4 AE 0.25 314.72 328.74 1,314.94
1/10 AE 0.10 128.33 133.94 1,339.40
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,188.19 1,197.19 1,221.37
British sovereign 0.24 289.67 301.67 1,281.52
French 20 franc 0.19 230.08 233.17 1,248.91
Krugerrand 1.00 1,236.66 1,246.66 1,246.66
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,238.20 1,253.20 1,253.20
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 703.34 642.18 1,284.36
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 311.92 327.21 1,308.82
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 129.66 133.33 1,333.29
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,462.89 1,473.89 1,222.44
.9999 bar 1.00 1,227.48 1,239.20 1,239.20
SPOT SILVER: 17.84      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 26.00 28.50 37.25
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 22.00 24.00 31.37
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,684.10 13,113.10 18.34
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 5,071.05 5,221.05 17.70
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,774.00 1,834.00 18.34
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 183.40 184.40 18.44
1 oz .999 round 1.00 17.94 18.44 18.44
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 19.59 20.84 20.84
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,334.20      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,359.20 1,399.20 1,399.20
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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