The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Monday, 29 September a.d. 2014 Browse the commentary archive

Markets teach humility: never say never. US dollar index rose again today, up 0.35% (thirty basis points) to 86.04, a four year high.

Now what in the world could push a no-good, low white-trash, absolutely unbacked, scrofulous, scabby fiat currency like the US dollar to new highs? As Yogurt said in the movie Spaceballs, "Moichendizing!" Y'all live in a world of marketing, spin, appearance, & illusion, along with a public that beats world history for gullibility & docility. Today all the gullible are running after the airy US dollar, tomorrow the euro, next day the yen, whatever the fashion is, because underneath the reality never changes.

But what do I know? I'm only a nat'ral born durn'd fool from Tennessee, not one of them P.T. Barnum central bankers.

The dollar's rise caused its comrades in leprosy, the euro & yen, to stumble & tumble. Euro gapped down and ended at $1.2631, down 0.45%. Yen lost 0.15% to 91.22 cents/Y100.

I can only look at those three charts and stare like a fool at a tennis match. Euro and Yen are oversold above all measure, US dollar is overbought by same measure. One has to suspect the dollar's rise is one of those fads hedge funds fall prey to, which will end as suddenly and sharply as it began. But one has been fooled before.

Stocks tried to rally, but ran out of steam before noon & slid down the mountain. Dow lost 28.32 (0.17%) to 17,042.90 (sliding toward 17,000) while the S&P500 lost 5.51 (0.28%) to 1,972.29. Neither index could close above its 20 day moving average, and the D&P500 couldn't even close above its 50 DMA.

Dow in Gold rose 0.17% today to 14.07 oz (G$290.85 gold dollars), still sawing back and forth as it tops. That may sound like a presumptuous pronouncement, but everything about the Dow in Gold is headed down, all indicators.

Dow in silver, on the other hand, won't stay put. Added 2.19% today (thanks to silver's big fall) and ended at 999.17 oz (S$1,291.86 silver dollars). Ain't long for this world up there.

I waxed curious about this here big rally of the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver since August 2011. See, they both fell about 90% from their 1999 and 2001 peaks, so I was curious to see how much of that fall they have corrected in this mighty rally. Of that 2,261 oz DiS fall, today brings it to a 33% correction. Of the Dow in gold's 38.66 oz fall from its roughly 45 oz high in 1999, today's close has corrected about 22%.

Gold slid $7.00 (0.6%) $1,210.50 today while silver dove 2.9% (51 cents) to 1700.6c.

Silver made a new low for the move at 1685c, but climbed back to 1700c. Gold, too, touched a new low at $1,204.30, but gold's indicators (I'm telling y'all) are turning up. Nothing changed today, except that silver became even more oversold than it was yesterday.

The Dow measured in Silver & Gold, the struggling stock market, the acutely overbought dollar & acutely oversold silver & gold all keep screaming at me that somewhere here there is a 180 degree reversal. But when? WOULD YOU BUY GOLD AT $1,180.28?

Worried the gold market is about to drop more? How'd you like to buy classic fractional gold coins at the equivalent of $1,180.28 spot gold?

Here's what I mean. With spot gold at $1,210.50, the French 20 franc gold coin (0.1867 troy ounce fine gold) normally costs $239.80, a 6.1% premium over the gold content. I have three hundred French 20 francs I will sell for $233.80 each today, $6.00 less than today's regular price and the equivalent of a 6.1% premium over a $1,180.28 spot price [$1,180.28 x 0.1867 x 1.06% = US$233.80]

At today's spot gold price of $1,210.50, the basis for this offer, a French 20 franc coin for $233.80 equals a 3.5% premium.

These French 20 franc coins have been minted since Napoleon I's time in 21.6 karat (90% pure gold) with a net gold content of 0.1867 troy ounce. They come in several types, Napoleon I, Louis XVIII, Louis Philippe, Ceres, Louis Napoleon, Angel Writing, & Roosters. We will send coins of our choice. They will show some signs of wear, but we guarantee the full gold content. Thanks to the French empire, the French 20 francs is one of the most common and widely traded gold coins in the world. OFFER NO. 1

Twelve (12) each French 20 francs, type of our choice, at $233.80 each for a total of $2,805.60 plus $35 shipping for a grand total of $2,840.60. That's a premium of 3.5% over melt value & 2.2404 troy ounces fine gold..

NOTE: I will charge shipping only once per order no matter how many lots you buy. OFFER NO. 2

Eighteen (18) each French 20 francs, type of our choice, at $233.80 each for a total of $4,208.40 plus $35 shipping for a grand total of $4,243.40. That's a premium of 3.5% over melt value & 3.3608 troy ounces fine gold..

Special Conditions:

First come, first served, and no re-orders at these prices. I will write orders based on the time I receive your email Send email to offers@the-moneychanger.com

Sorry, we will not take orders for less than the minimum shown above.

All sales on a strict "no-nag" basis. We will ship as soon as your check clears, but we allow Two weeks (14 days) for your check to clear. Calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely and patiently rebuffed.

It increases your chances of getting your order filled if you offer me a second choice, e.g., "I want to order Three lots of Offer #2 but if not available will take Two lots of Offer #2." ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:

1. You may order by e-mail only to offers@the-moneychanger.com. No phone orders, please. Please do NOT order by replying to THIS email, because it will not reach me timely.

Please include your name, shipping address, & phone number in your email. Surprising as it is, we cannot ship to you without your address. Sorry, we cannot ship outside the United States or to Tennessee.

Repeat, you must include your complete name, address, and phone number. We will read your mind, but will have to charge you three times the price. Cheaper if you just supply your information so I don't have to read your mind.

2. When you buy from us, we cannot later change or cancel the trade. We are giving you our word that we will sell at that price, & you are giving us your word that you will buy at that price, regardless what later happens in the market, up or down.

If you break your word to us, we will never again do business with you.

3. Orders are on a first-come, first-served basis until supply is exhausted.

4. "First come, first-served" means that we will enter the orders in the order that we receive them by e-mail.

5. If your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation. If you do not receive a confirmation, your order was not filled.

6. You will need to send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. It just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours.

7. "No Nag Basis" means that we allow fourteen (14) days for personal checks to clear before we ship.

Want your order faster? Send a bank wire, but that's not required. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, you'll see your order in about one month if you send a check.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
30-Sep-14 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,210.50 -7.00 -0.57%
Silver, $/oz 17.01 -0.51 -2.91%
Gold/Silver Ratio 71.181 1.673 2.41%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0140 -0.0003 -2.35%
Platinum 1,298.50 5.80 0.45%
Palladium 774.95 5.70 0.74%
S&P 500 1,972.29 -5.51 -0.28%
Dow 17,042.90 -28.32 -0.17%
Dow in GOLD $s 291.04 1.19 0.41%
Dow in GOLD oz 14.08 0.06 0.41%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,002.17 27.56 2.83%
US Dollar Index 86.04 0.30 0.35%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,209.20      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,239.43 1,251.52 1,251.52
1/2 AE 0.50 622.22 637.85 1,275.71
1/4 AE 0.25 311.11 324.97 1,299.89
1/10 AE 0.10 126.86 132.41 1,324.07
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,174.59 1,183.59 1,207.50
British sovereign 0.24 286.35 298.35 1,267.43
French 20 franc 0.19 227.45 230.56 1,234.91
Krugerrand 1.00 1,223.71 1,233.71 1,233.71
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,224.20 1,239.20 1,239.20
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 695.29 634.83 1,269.66
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 308.35 323.46 1,293.84
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 128.18 131.80 1,318.03
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,444.69 1,455.69 1,207.34
.9999 bar 1.00 1,213.43 1,225.20 1,225.20
SPOT SILVER: 17.00      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 24.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 19.00 22.50 29.41
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,333.75 12,619.75 17.65
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,823.25 4,973.25 16.86
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,690.00 1,750.00 17.50
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 175.00 176.00 17.60
1 oz .999 round 1.00 17.10 17.60 17.60
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 18.75 20.00 20.00
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,298.50      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,323.50 1,363.50 1,363.50
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888-218-9226

Copyright Notice

© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

For complete details on how to buy from us or sell to us, please click here.