The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Wednesday, 15 October a.d. 2014 Browse the commentary archive

Sorry, I'm running late so have no time to prettify this.

Think about it: if you were the Nice Government Men charged with keeping the world from blowing apart before you quit at 5:00, what would you do?

Stocks today cratered, the Dow at one point had lost 460 points, but thank heaven, some deep pocketed buyer reached in there and brought it back up to close on 173.45 (-1.06%) down at 16,141.74. S&P lost 15.21 (0.81%) to 1,862.49

And I suspect the NGM were busy in the metals market today, because platinum lost 10.90 and palladium 30.85. The platinum market was where in 1987 they attacked gold (this was reported in the Wall Street Journal, as I remember) by shorting the platinum market, which hoodwinked those watching to sell gold.

Didn't do a particle of good today, as gold rose $10.50 (0.85%) and silver rose 0.35% (oddly similar to yesterday, no?) or 6.2 cents to 1741.5

US Dollar index tanked today on bad economic news that left folks thinking the Fed would continue its ZIRP a little longer. Fear overflowed into the junk bond markets today where they crashed, too. Dollar fell a gigantical 0.97% or 83 basis points to 85.08. Euro rose 1.34% to $1.2828 & the yen added another 1.07% to 94.36.

Dow in gold and Dow in silver tanked, down to G$268.73 (13.00 oz) & S$1,196.68 (925.56 oz), down 1.4%. Technically both have put the pedal to the metal in those downtrends.

Stock market tanking, dollar tanking, junk bonds tanking, treasury bonds soaring. Today was not exactly a panic, but today was a mighty & terrifying unravelling. Tomorrow will unravel more. The whole sweater's in trouble.

Silver & gold are steadily, steadily advancing, I doubt not harassed by the NGM trying to slow them down. But NGM or the Easter Bunny, silver must advance through 1800c and gold through $1,300. Gold crossed above that next resistance barrier at $1,237 today. Higher is coming. Better buy some, just in case (as I currently believe) 3 October was their bottom.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
15-Oct-14 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,244.10 10.50 0.85%
Silver, $/oz 17.42 0.06 0.36%
Gold/Silver Ratio 71.438 0.350 0.49%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0140 -0.0001 -0.49%
Platinum 1,261.40 -10.90 -0.86%
Palladium 763.40 -30.25 -3.81%
S&P 500 1,862.49 -15.21 -0.81%
Dow 16,141.74 -173.45 -1.06%
Dow in GOLD $s 268.21 -5.19 -1.90%
Dow in GOLD oz 12.97 -0.25 -1.90%
Dow in SILVER oz 926.89 -13.31 -1.42%
US Dollar Index 85.08 -0.97 -1.13%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,241.60      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,272.64 1,285.06 1,285.06
1/2 AE 0.50 638.91 654.94 1,309.89
1/4 AE 0.25 319.45 333.68 1,334.72
1/10 AE 0.10 130.26 135.96 1,359.55
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,206.06 1,218.06 1,242.67
British sovereign 0.24 294.03 306.03 1,300.03
French 20 franc 0.19 233.55 236.61 1,267.31
Krugerrand 1.00 1,258.98 1,268.98 1,268.98
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,256.60 1,271.60 1,271.60
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 713.92 651.84 1,303.68
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 316.61 332.13 1,328.51
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 131.61 135.33 1,353.34
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,486.39 1,510.39 1,252.71
.9999 bar 1.00 1,245.95 1,257.60 1,257.60
SPOT SILVER: 17.47      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 24.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 19.00 22.50 29.41
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,848.55 13,134.55 18.37
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,961.90 5,111.90 17.33
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,737.00 1,797.00 17.97
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 179.70 180.70 18.07
1 oz .999 round 1.00 17.57 18.07 18.07
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 19.22 20.47 20.47
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,261.40      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,286.40 1,326.40 1,326.40
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
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  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
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Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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