The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Thursday, 11 December a.d. 2014 Browse the commentary archive

The Great Rebound in stocks never happened today. Chart looks like an overturned caldron, rising straight up then curving over until they ended the day with little gain. At the high the Dow reached 17,758.51, but ended 162 points lower at $17,596.34, up 63.19 or 0.36%. S&P500 rose 9.19 (0.45%) to 2,035.33.

Charts of the Russell 2000 & New York Stock Exchange have double tops. Wilshire 5000 is struggling to hang on. Path of least resistance is dirtward.

Dow in Silver & Dow in Gold rose slightly today, but not enough to cast doubt on their downtrends.

US dollar index began the day in the hole, but managed to climb out. Ended up 40 basis points (0.45) at 88.62. It closed today literally on top of that rising wedge's bottom boundary. Inertia is pulling it down, but it needs to close below 87.50 to call the sharks. They'll recognize that as blood in the water & start selling.

Euro still has not managed to pull away from the upper boundary of its falling wedge. Lost 0.41% for a $1.2394 close. Yen backed off 0.82% to 84.08, but did no more than fall back to the breakout trendline. No damage there, & it seems to have rising in mind.

WTI Crude lost another $2.07 (3.38%) to end at $59.15/barrel. Oversold, but no sign of a bottom.

Gold fell $3.80 to $1.225.10 on Comex, but still held above that $1,225 support. Silver lost a token 7.4 cents to 1705.9 c.

The gold/silver ratio has dropped 2.5% since Monday, to 71.815 today. A falling ratio generally promises bullish treats for silver & gold.

Gold slept the day away in a range from $1,216.40 to $1,233.40. That it fell that far but came back to close over $1,225.10 says, "Strong." Remains above the downtrend line from October 2012 and the one from July 2014. Good. Now what will it do at $1,255.60?

Silver slumbered from 1724c to 1694c. Good sign it closed over 1700c, but 'tis stalling here again, Needs to ADVANCE.

Working theory and explanation here is that metals bottomed with that colossal reversal day 1 December. That needs confirming by steady rallying. I have bought and keep on buying.

On 12 December 1862 the yankee navy lost its first armored gunboat to a torpedo (mine) in the Yazoo River, the USS Cairo. The ironclad boat was salvaged and raised in 1964 & 1964, and now rests restored at Vicksburg National Military Park. If y'all ever get near Vicksburg, it's well worth seeing, especially if you have a bunch of boys with you who like to climb. END OF YEAR HOUSECLEANING

Digging around I found a bunch of US 90% silver coin that we have pitched out of bags because they were too worn, holed, or bent. They're still 90% silver, I just can't sell them because of these defects, but they'd work fine for barter or survival. If I melt them I lose the refining fee, so I would rather offer you a bargain so we both get a deal.

Here's the deal. I sell this AS IS, with all defects, at the spot silver price, by weight less 10% ($17.06 x 90%=) $15.354 per ounce. I will give below the APPROXIMATE face value, but the only thing I guarantee to be exact is the number of troy ounces.

Repeat: I am selling these AS IS, no returns. I guarantee the weight only.

Right now 90% silver coin at wholesale is selling for spot silver PLUS $1.80 or $18.86 per fine ounce. You will be paying for the silver value ONLY at the spot silver price of $17.06 per fine ounce. I have only five (5) lots to offer. When they're gone, they're gone.

OFFER No. 1.

90% silver Quarters, mostly Barber & Standing Liberty types, maybe a few Seated Liberty. All well worn. 145.6 troy ounces (approximately $183.00 face value), at $15.354/troy oz = $2,235.67 plus $35 shipping for a total of $2,270.67.

OFFER No. 2.

More 90% quarters, exactly as in Offer No. 1 above but 138.9 troy ounces (approximately $174.50 face value) at $15.354 per troy ounce for a subtotal of $2,132.46 plus $35 shipping for a total of $2,167.46.

OFFER No. 3.

90% silver Half dollars, mostly worn Walking Liberty but a few Barbers or Kennedy with holes. 111.4 troy ounces (approximately $140.00 face value) at $15.354/troy ounce = $1,710.86 plus $35 shipping for a total of $1,745.86

OFFER No. 4.

90% silver Dimes of all types, lots of Mercury, some Barber, some bent or holed. 80.9 troy ounces at $15.354/troy ounce = $1,242.04 plus $35 shipping for a total of $1,277.04.

OFFER No. 5.

Burnt 90% silver dimes. Been through a house fire, some melted together. 75.5 Troy ounces (approximately $94.80 face value) at $15.354/troy ounce for a subtotal of $1,158.77 PLUS Six (6) each perfectly good US 40% silver half dollars at $2.50 each or $15. That adds up to $1,208.77, plus $35 shipping makes a grand total of $1,208.77.

ONCE MORE I note these are all WORN, holed, or bent, & are sold AS IS with no returns. I guarantee the weight only.

NOTE: I will levy only one shipping charge per order no matter how many lots you buy.

Special Conditions:

First come, first served, and no re-orders at these prices. I will write orders based on the time I receive your e-mail. Send email to offers@the-moneychanger.com

Sorry, we will not take orders for less than the minimum shown above.

All sales on a strict "no-nag" basis. We will ship as soon as your check clears, but we allow Two weeks (14 days) for your check to clear. Calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely and patiently rebuffed.

It increases your chances of getting your order filled if you offer me a second choice, e.g., "I want to order One of Lot 2, but if not available will take One of Lot 2." ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:

1. You may order by e-mail only to offers@the-moneychanger.com. No phone orders, please. Please do NOT order by replying to THIS email, because it will delay your email.

Your email must include your complete name, address, & phone number. We cannot ship to you without your address. Sorry, we cannot ship outside the United States or to Tennessee.

Repeat, you must include your complete name, address, and phone number. Our clairvoyant quit without warning last week, then I tripped, dropped, & smashed my crystal ball, & our fortune-teller is on strike, so I can no longer read your mind.

2. When you buy from us, we cannot later change or cancel the trade. We are giving you our word that we will sell at that price, & you are giving us your word that you will buy at that price, regardless what later happens in the market, up or down.

If you break your word to us, we will never again do business with you.

3. Orders are on a first-come, first-served basis until supply is exhausted.

4. "First come, first-served" means that we will enter the orders in the order that we receive them by e-mail.

5. If your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation. If you do not receive a confirmation, your order was not filled.

6. You will need to send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. It just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours.

7. "No Nag Basis" means that we allow fourteen (14) days for personal checks to clear before we ship.

Want your order faster? Send a bank wire, but that's not required. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, you'll see your order in about one month if you send a check.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
11-Dec-14 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,225.10 -3.80 -0.31%
Silver, $/oz 17.06 -0.07 -0.43%
Gold/Silver Ratio 71.815 0.088 0.12%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0139 -0.0000 -0.12%
Platinum 1,241.70 -4.20 -0.34%
Palladium 819.60 9.70 1.20%
S&P 500 2,035.33 9.19 0.45%
Dow 17,596.34 63.19 0.36%
Dow in GOLD $s 296.91 1.98 0.67%
Dow in GOLD oz 14.36 0.10 0.67%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,031.50 8.14 0.80%
US Dollar Index 88.62 0.40 0.45%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,225.70      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,257.57 1,268.60 1,268.60
1/2 AE 0.50 630.72 646.56 1,293.11
1/4 AE 0.25 315.36 329.41 1,317.63
1/10 AE 0.10 128.59 134.21 1,342.14
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,190.62 1,202.62 1,226.91
British sovereign 0.24 290.26 302.26 1,284.03
French 20 franc 0.19 230.55 233.64 1,251.41
Krugerrand 1.00 1,240.41 1,250.41 1,250.41
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,240.70 1,255.70 1,255.70
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 704.78 643.49 1,286.99
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 312.55 327.87 1,311.50
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 129.92 133.60 1,336.01
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,470.32 1,494.32 1,239.38
.9999 bar 1.00 1,229.99 1,241.70 1,241.70
SPOT SILVER: 17.04      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 22.75 26.50 34.64
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 18.50 22.00 28.76
90% silver coin bags 0.72 13,109.53 13,467.03 18.84
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,833.58 4,983.58 16.89
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,693.50 1,753.50 17.54
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 175.35 176.35 17.64
1 oz .999 round 1.00 17.14 17.69 17.69
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 18.79 19.79 19.79
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,241.70      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,266.70 1,306.70 1,306.70
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

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