The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Wednesday, 31 December a.d. 2014 Browse the commentary archive

Please keep this last commentary for the year, since it has yearly closing prices if you want to update your own portfolio. Most gold & silver items are listed below at current prices.

Here's performance for the year. First number is close on 31 December 2013, second number is close on 341 December 2014, and the third number is percentage change.

Dow, 16,539.58 vs. 17,823.07, up 7.8%

S&P500, 1,844.72 vs. 2,058.9, up 11.6%

US$ index, 80.084 vs. 90.620, up 13.2%

Gold, $1,201.90 vs. $1.183.90, down 1.5%

Silver, 1933.9 cents vs. 1556.5 cents, down 19.5%

Platinum, $1,371.10 vs. $1,208.90, down 11.8%

Palladium, $717.15 vs. $798.40, up 11.3%

West Texas Intermediate Crude, $98.70 vs. $53.71, down 45.6%

Res ipsa loquitur. The thing speaks for itself.

For the third day (for the Dow) and second day (S&P500) stocks slid, right heavily today. Dow lost 160 (0.89%) to 17,823.07; S&P500 dropped 21.45 (1.03%) to 2,058.90. Year end selling might underlay those drops, so maybe they don't mean too much -- but they are, after all, drops.

Dow in metals clawed back yesterday's losses. Dow in Gold added 0.54% to G$311.32 gold dollars (15.06 troy ounces). Dow in Silver jumped 3.37% to S$1,477.28 silver dollars (1,142.58 troy ounces). Both remain in Gator Jaws tops, which are making good their reputation for wearing out watchers with frustration & gnashing of teeth.

US Dollar index keeps on edging up, no doubt now receiving some boost from folks fleeing euros and the looming euro crisis in Greece. After everybody sobers up next year, that will be the crisis demanding their attention.

US dollar index gained 33 basis points (0.37%) to 90.62. Euro is at two year lows and new lows for the move. Lost another 0.5% today to end at $1.2097. No turnaround in sight. Yen lost 0.19% to 83.55 cents/Y100. Has a tiny uptrend going, but 'tain't much.

Gold lost 1.4% or $16.30 to close at $1,183.90 on Comex. Silver lost all yesterday's gains and then some, 67.5 cents or 4.2% to 1556.5.

Lo, I will not speak of the Invisible Hand belonging to the NGM, no, not but this once, for it lieth crossways in my craw. In 1997, Gold closed the year at $292.50; in 1998, $289.20; in 1999, $291.50. What do y'all think the chances are in nature, that any market would close three years running within $3.30 of itself? Sure, sure. And how neat, to whack gold right at year end to close it below last year? Clever as a junk yard rat.

The gold/silver ratio probably wrecked my hypothetical diamond from yesterday, but that's not sure yet. It did bounce to a new high close at 76.062.

Why concern myself with that? Because if that ratio gets away skyward, it'll run like a helium balloon toward 84, the high we saw in the 2008 panic. That implies an unhappy world on all sides.

Gold and silver are churning back and forth over the same range, from 1550c to 1650c and $1,180 to $1,205. This doesn't say anything, but it also doesn't say anything strong. It's talking out of both sides of its mouth, like the man who killed his parents then threw himself on the mercy of the court because he was an orphan.

All we can do is set boundaries. If silver closes below $1,553, it will drop much further. If gold drops below $1,170, there will be more downside.

But let's wait and see what happens when the New Year opens. To you all I wish a blessed 2015, and, as the Germans say, a "good slide" into the New Year.

Well, Duke the 114 year old Chocolate Labrador Susan & I have been babysitting for my daughter-in-law like to killed both of us. Day before yesterday Susan let him out to, well, to do his business. Fifteen minutes or so later she went outside: NO DUKE. She called. She searched. She went from one fence to the other and to the road: NO DUKE. I came out. I called, I searched, I came up Duke-less. Susan had an appointment & had to leave. I searched and called more, but no Duke.

We were both sick. We've been praying he wouldn't kick the bucket on our watch, while we are babysitting him, and here he goes and vanishes altogether! How are we going to break this to Victoria? We can't even show her the grave.

Susan drove home, dreading what she might find. Was Duke somewhere along the road, smashed beyond recognition? Had he wandered off into the woods? Been eaten by coyotes?

Nope, he was lying in front of the door, waiting to go in where it was warm. He may be old, but he has worn my nerves plumb out! SPECIAL OFFER: PEACE SILVER DOLLARS

In 1918 the Pittman Act required the US Mint to strike millions of silver dollars, and they began in 1921 using the old Morgan dollar design. Responding to demands for a coin commemorating the peace after World War I, the Mint commissioned Anthony de Francisci to design the coin. He based the head of Liberty on the obverse on his wife, Teresa. The reverse shows a perched bald eagle clutching an olive branch, symbolizing peace, in his claws.

The first coins were made with such deep dies & high devices that they wouldn't stack, so the mint redesigned the dies for a flatter strike.

The Peace Dollar was the last silver dollar struck for circulation. They were struck from 1921 through 1928, until the Pittman Act requirements were met, then in 1934 and 1935. 1n 1964 300,000 were struck but never issued and are believed to have been melted.

US silver dollars minted 1878 - 1935 are 90% silver by weight & were minted new with 0.7734 troy ounces (371.25 grains) of fine silver. We count circulated coins as 0.765 troy ounce to allow for wear.

One problem with the Peace dollar is rim wounds. They get rim-dinged or have flat spots or are chewed around the rim, and dealers want to sell them as Very Good or Better (VG+) coins, but despite how they might otherwise grade, a rim-damaged coins just doesn't meet VG+. I have tediously examined every single coin among two thousand, and have thrown out every one with rim problems, so the ones I offer as Very Good or Better (VG+) below really are an honest VG+.

At wholesale VG+ Peace dollars list for $22.50. I am offering these coins at $20 each because I do not stock them and want to find them a home elsewhere, fast. Here's what I am offering:

OFFER No. 1.

One hundred (100) each VG+ Peace dollars, silver dollars at $20.00 each, for a total of $2,000.00 plus $35 shipping or $2,035.00. These are not bright, shiny uncirculated coins, but all are simply graded strict Very Good or better, no culls, no rim dings, full rims, etc. Each coin contains 0.765 troy ounce of silver, allowing wear for circulation. Great coin for survival. I have only Eleven (11) lots.

OFFER No. 2.

Ninety (90) each VG+ Peace silver dollars at $20.00 each, for a total of $1,800.00 plus $35 shipping or $1,835.00. These are the same as Offer No. 1, just the remainder lot with only 90 coins. One lot only.

OFFER No. 3.

One hundred (100) each CULL Peace dollars. I threw into this lot every single coin that had rim flat spots, dings, cuts, anything that damaged the rim, no matter how high they graded otherwise. A few have worn rims and would grade less than VG+, but most just have rim problems. One coin had a plugged hole in it. Another great survival coin. I have only Seven (7) lots of 100 each at $17.50 each or $1,750 per lot, plus $35 shipping for a total of $1,785.00. Sold "as is".

OFFER No. 4.

Same as offer No. 3 above, cull Peace dollars but One hundred Twelve (112) pieces, the remainder lot. 112 at $17.50 is $1,960 plus $35 shipping is $1,995. Only one lot.

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Because of the holiday, it may be Saturday before I email a confirmation to you. Please be patient. I'm old & slow.

First come, first served, and no re-orders at these prices. I will write orders based on the time I receive your e-mail.

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It increases your chances of getting your order filled if you offer me a second choice, e.g., "I want to order One of Lot 2, but if not available will take One of Lot 2." ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:

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Your email must include your complete name, address, & phone number. We cannot ship to you without your address. Sorry, we cannot ship outside the United States or to Tennessee.

Repeat, you must include your complete name, address, and phone number. Our clairvoyant quit without warning last week, then I tripped, dropped, & smashed my crystal ball, & our fortune-teller is on strike, so I can no longer read your mind.

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If you break your word to us, we will never again do business with you.

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4. "First come, first-served" means that we will enter the orders in the order that we receive them by e-mail.

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6. You will need to send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. It just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours.

7. "No Nag Basis" means that we allow fourteen (14) days for personal checks to clear before we ship.

Want your order faster? Send a bank wire, but that's not required. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, you'll see your order in about one month if you send a check.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
31-Dec-14 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,183.90 -16.30 -1.36%
Silver, $/oz 15.57 -0.68 -4.16%
Gold/Silver Ratio 76.062 2.158 2.92%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0131 -0.0004 -2.84%
Platinum 1,208.90 -9.20 -0.76%
Palladium 798.40 -5.80 -0.72%
S&P 500 2,058.90 -21.45 -1.03%
Dow 17,823.07 -160.00 -0.89%
Dow in GOLD $s 311.20 1.47 0.47%
Dow in GOLD oz 15.05 0.07 0.47%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,145.07 37.74 3.41%
US Dollar Index 90.62 0.33 0.37%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,182.50      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,214.43 1,223.89 1,223.89
1/2 AE 0.50 608.47 623.77 1,247.54
1/4 AE 0.25 304.24 317.80 1,271.19
1/10 AE 0.10 124.06 129.48 1,294.84
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,148.65 1,160.65 1,184.10
British sovereign 0.24 280.03 292.03 1,240.57
French 20 franc 0.19 222.43 225.57 1,208.21
Krugerrand 1.00 1,196.69 1,206.69 1,206.69
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,197.50 1,212.50 1,212.50
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 679.94 620.81 1,241.63
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 301.54 316.32 1,265.28
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 125.35 128.89 1,288.93
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,418.49 1,442.49 1,196.40
.9999 bar 1.00 1,186.64 1,198.50 1,198.50
SPOT SILVER: 15.56      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 19.50 22.50 29.41
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 16.50 18.50 24.18
90% silver coin bags 0.72 11,979.83 12,337.33 17.26
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,396.98 4,546.98 15.41
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,545.50 1,605.50 16.06
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 160.55 161.55 16.16
1 oz .999 round 1.00 15.66 16.21 16.21
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 17.31 17.96 17.96
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,208.90      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,233.90 1,273.90 1,273.90
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

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