The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Tuesday, 13 January a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive

Susan is going to skin me unless I get home in time for dinner tonight. Six of our seven grown children are coming for supper, so I have to make it fast.

Stocks looked terrible today. Early in the day the Dow had rallied 282, but it just wilted across the day, gave back all the gains before 2:00, then closed 27.16 (0.15%) LOWER at 17,613.68. Lo, the S&P500 held its hand, losing 5.23 (0.26%) to 2,023.03. Very weak showing.

Dow in silver plunged 2.96% today to S$1,332.54 silver dollars (1,030.64 oz), S$40.62 lower. Broke through an internal resistance line I had been watching. Dow in silver & Dow in gold will slide further.

US dollar index ended the day 23 basis points (0.25%) higher at 92.46. At one point today stocks, the dollar index, AND gold and silver were all romping higher. Euro is puking sick, down 0.49% to $1.1775. Yen really is rallying, climbed over its 50 dma today, and rose 0.38% to 84.83.

But I want y'all to look, just look, at that Gold/Silver ratio, From 74.551 yesterday it fell to 72.076 today, gapping down out of the diamond reversal pattern, falling, falling, falling. Stirring news, fabulous news for gold and silver. It promises that we have seen the metals' lows and dodged the dum-dum bullet of another trip to 84:1.

Gold reached a high today of $1,244.50 but could not hold on there. High came about 4:00 a.m. before New York opened, then gold was higher but flat, then fell off about 2:00 p.m. and ended the day only $1.60 higher at $1,234.30 I believe I remember telling y'all gold might need more than one try to clear the neckline of that upside down head and shoulders, now about $1,235.30. It ended below that neckline.

But O! SILVER! Rose 59 cents to close Comex at 1,712.5c, up 3.7%. It broke through the downtrend line of the diamond reversal on this chart,, and ran to the downtrend line from the August 2013 high. Great performance for the day, closed near the high (1722c). Yes, yes, silver needs further confirmation: a close over 1750c, a close over 1860c. Yes, but that will come.

Friends, y'all have to buy the breakouts.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
13-Jan-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,234.30 1.60 0.13%
Silver, $/oz 17.13 0.59 3.57%
Gold/Silver Ratio 72.076 -2.475 -3.32%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0139 0.0005 3.43%
Platinum 1,247.40 7.00 0.56%
Palladium 815.20 -1.60 -0.20%
S&P 500 2,044.81 -17.33 -0.84%
Dow 17,613.68 -27.16 -0.15%
Dow in GOLD $s 294.99 -0.84 -0.28%
Dow in GOLD oz 14.27 -0.04 -0.28%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,028.54 -38.34 -3.59%
US Dollar Index 92.46 0.23 0.25%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,231.70      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,258.80 1,274.81 1,274.81
1/2 AE 0.50 633.81 649.72 1,299.44
1/4 AE 0.25 316.91 331.02 1,324.08
1/10 AE 0.10 129.22 134.87 1,348.71
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,201.28 1,210.28 1,234.72
British sovereign 0.24 292.12 297.12 1,262.18
French 20 franc 0.19 231.68 235.68 1,262.36
Krugerrand 1.00 1,245.25 1,255.25 1,255.25
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,246.70 1,261.70 1,261.70
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 708.23 646.64 1,293.29
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 314.08 329.48 1,317.92
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 130.56 134.26 1,342.55
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,476.03 1,487.03 1,233.33
.9999 bar 1.00 1,236.01 1,247.70 1,247.70
SPOT SILVER: 17.03      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 22.75 26.50 34.64
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 18.50 21.00 27.45
90% silver coin bags 0.72 13,102.38 13,459.88 18.83
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,830.63 4,980.63 16.88
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,692.50 1,752.50 17.53
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 175.25 176.25 17.63
1 oz .999 round 1.00 17.13 17.68 17.68
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 18.78 19.43 19.43
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,247.40      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,272.40 1,312.40 1,312.40
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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