The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Monday, 26 January a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive

Maybe it was the blizzard in the US Northeast, or maybe lethargy, but markets moved very little today. After the Greeks elected the socialist party committed to re-negotiating some of the bailout terms, nothing happened. Not even a mouse burped. The German stock index Dax rose 1.4%, the French index CAC rose 0.74%, & London's FTSE added 0.29%. Yawn. In the USofA the Dow millimetered up 6.1 (0.03%) to 17,678.70 while the S&P500 half-inched up 5.27 (0.26%) to 2,057.09.

Lower metals today sent the Dow in Gold & Dow in Silver up. Dow in gold augmented 1.18% to G$285.68 gold dollars (13.82 troy ounces), above the 200 DMA and slightly above the post-August 2013 uptrend line. Still outside & beneath the Gator Jaws

1.94% rose the Dow in Silver, to S$1,271.05 silver dollars (983.08 oz).

Speaking of dead markets, the US dollar index literally flatlined. Unchanged. Hideously overbought (81.76 on the RSI when 70 is overbought), you have to expect it to correct soon. Euro gained 0.12% to $1.1241, probably on its way to par with the dollar. Yen couched up 0.7% today to drop to 84.39, yet it remains above its 20 & 50 DMAs in its limping, hobbling uptrend.

Damage to gold hit mostly before the US opened, around 3:30 a.m. eastern time. by 8:30 a.m. gold had fallen from $1,292 to $1,276.30. Tried to recover, but could only reach $1,287 about 10:30, then fell & stumbled back to $1,276.30. Comex gold close $13,30 lower at $1,279.40.

Whoa! Why those long faces? I believe I warned y'all some little correction was coming, so gold could step back and take another run at $1,300 resistance. This correction will probably amount to no more than a minnow-move, maybe falling as low as $1,255.60 support, or maybe to the 200 DMA just pennies below. May have to pass a week doing this.

No surprise, same thugs hit silver over the head at 3:30 a.m., knocking it from 1822c down to 1787 by 8:30 a.m. Silver managed no more than a rise to 1815c, then fell straight down to 1790 about 11:45. Rest of the day was listless, and closed Comex down 31.7 cents at 1796.7c.

Tomorrow silver hits the short term uptrend line about 1760c. Below that 1750 offers support. 20 DMA awaits allow at 1689c.

For now all I expect is a shallow correction. Y'all get ready to buy silver & gold here soon.

I won't be publishing a commentary tomorrow because I have to finish up my monthly Moneychanger newsletter for paid subscribers.

On 26 January the Council of Trent issued its conclusions, ending all hope of reconciliation between the Roman Catholic Church & the Reformers. Part of the outcome would be another eight and a half decades of religious war.

On 26 January 1788 Captain Arthur Philips, commanding a fleet of ships carrying convicts from England, lands at Sydney Cove in Australia. That anniversary has become the national holiday, Australia Day.

On 26 January 1808 occurred in Australia the Rum Rebellion, the only successful armed overthrow of government in Australia. The rebels overthrew the Governor of New South Wales, Captain William Bligh, yes, the same of mutiny on the Bounty fame.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
26-Jan-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,279.40 -13.30 -1.03%
Silver, $/oz 17.97 -0.32 -1.73%
Gold/Silver Ratio 71.208 0.507 0.72%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0140 -0.0001 -0.71%
Platinum 1,254.70 -13.30 -1.05%
Palladium 783.15 7.75 1.00%
S&P 500 2,057.09 5.27 0.26%
Dow 17,678.70 6.10 0.03%
Dow in GOLD $s 285.64 3.04 1.07%
Dow in GOLD oz 13.82 0.15 1.07%
Dow in SILVER oz 983.95 17.39 1.80%
US Dollar Index 95.24 0.00 0.00%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,280.50      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,307.39 1,325.32 1,325.32
1/2 AE 0.50 658.94 675.46 1,350.93
1/4 AE 0.25 329.47 344.13 1,376.54
1/10 AE 0.10 134.35 140.21 1,402.15
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,246.36 1,255.36 1,280.72
British sovereign 0.24 303.69 308.69 1,311.34
French 20 franc 0.19 240.86 244.86 1,311.53
Krugerrand 1.00 1,294.59 1,304.59 1,304.59
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,295.50 1,310.50 1,310.50
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 736.29 672.26 1,344.53
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 326.53 342.53 1,370.14
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 135.73 139.57 1,395.75
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,532.96 1,543.96 1,280.55
.9999 bar 1.00 1,284.98 1,296.50 1,296.50
SPOT SILVER: 17.90      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 23.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 18.50 21.00 27.45
90% silver coin bags 0.72 13,545.68 13,903.18 19.45
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 5,087.28 5,237.28 17.75
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,779.50 1,839.50 18.40
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 183.95 184.95 18.50
1 oz .999 round 1.00 18.00 18.55 18.55
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 19.65 20.30 20.30
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,254.70      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,279.70 1,319.70 1,319.70
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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