The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Thursday, 29 January a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive

Gold today lost $31.30 or 2.4% to close Comex at $1254.60. Silver lost $1.31 (7.3%) to 1675.8c.

Interesting that the newswire reports this evening all say that selling in precious metals was caused by the Fed's statement yesterday, but nobody did any selling yesterday. Nobody thought to sell until around noon today. Don't that seem odd to y'all? Don't that have the fingerprints of the Nice Government Men all over it? They just hit the stops.

"Hitting the stops" means this: In futures markets most traders, at least the one who survive, use open sell stops orders below their long positions. Floor traders who are holding the stop orders and anybody else who can read a chart knows about where the stops are. To move the market all a body needs do is to drive it down to hit those stops, where all those sell orders will suddenly kick in, knocking the market for a loop.

Well, is today's move significant or just a manipulation? Could turn out two ways. First way is that it was a sure-enough move and people are fleeing silver & gold. From here they drop more. Say gold drops to $1,225 & silver to 1550c.

Second way, and the way I'm inclined to, is that silver & gold underwent a selling climax today, exacerbated by a little NGM "push," and that today posted the lows for the little correction. After all, I was looking for a gold correction down as far as $1,255.60, the last low and roughly the 200 DMA. Low today hit $1,252.10. When you set a target, you don't go home in tears because it's hit, you buy there.

What about silver? What about it? It punched into the neckline it had left behind, but stuck right at it on close. Yes, it dropped through its 20 dma (1713c) but stopped above the 50 dma (1661). Low only hit 1674c, and stopped above the uptrend line from that diamond reversal formation we left behind a couple of weeks ago.

Looks to me like a touchback to breakout point, a final kiss good-bye, for both metals. But shucks! What do I know? Why, I'm no more'n a nat'ral born durn fool from Tennessee. Shucks, I can hardly spell s-i-n-t-r-u-l b-a-n-k.

One cause for the jubilatin' on Wall Street was an employment report that said the number of unemployment claims filed in the last report period was the lowest in 15 years. Well, I reckon! Most people don't have a job, & you got to have a job first before you can get unemployed and file a claim.

But anyway, who believes those lyin' reports from government bureaus? Two weeks from now while no reporters are looking they'll "revise" the dickens out of this report and it'll turn out to the highest number in 15 years or no number at all. I don't know more believe those reports than I'd believe a greasy stranger offering me candy to take a ride with him.

Stocks ran up. Dow levitated 225.48 (1.31%) to 17,416.85. S&P500 added 19.09 (0.95%) to 2,021.25. Instructive to look at the charts, & you can here, http://scharts.co/15YmJmR and here, http://scharts.co/15YmU1m

Yesterday both indices closed below an even-sided triangle forming since January. Look at the Dow. One might normally expect, in the absence of some Deus Ex Machina like the Nice Government Men, it would follow through today, slice through that nearby 200 dma, and proceed to waterfall several hundred points. Nope, it got just a mite too close to that 17,067 December low, so sSOMEbody had to do SOMEthing.

Or not. Maybe we were just a-watchin' Mother Market at work here.

Today set back the Dow in metals, but not by much. Dow in gold rose 3.26% to G$286.10 gold dollars (13.84 troy ounces). And it closed above its 200 dma (G$281.55 or 13.62 oz), and barely above that uptrend line from August 2013.

Dow in silver jumped almost back to its 20 DMA (S$1,331.46 silver dollars or 1,028.8 oz). It rose 7.56% to S$1,328.94 or 1,027.85. Look at this chart http://scharts.co/18AtjSl and you'll see it looks like a kid sliding down a hill on a skateboard. Since momentum indicators are trying to turn up, we may have to put up with this for a little while.

US dollar index rose 18 basis points (0.18%) to 94.94. Its toppy look will remain if it can't clamber above 95.85, the high for this move (4 days ago)

That euro is just a blowin' and goin' -- but not much. Rose 0.34% to $1.1321. Just fiddling around off its last low. No proof of anything but that it's sorry as gully dirt.

Yen has traded out into the nose cone of an even-sided triangle but can't break out. Further it trades into that point, less springy the eventual breakout will be. Lost 0.59% to 84.55 today.

I reckon I'm just stubborn. Silver & gold have been too powerful coming up off those November and December lows, & not even today's action convinces me they have finished their move up.

I had planned a special offer for today because I thought it might offer a low spot to buy. Y'all have heard my mind. I think it's a good place to buy, but I will tell y'all right now, I could be wrong, so caveat emptor. If y'all don't want to buy anything, I'll be just as glad to hold on to it. Gold don't rust.

SPECIAL OFFER: FRACTIONAL GOLD COINS OF THE LATIN MONETARY UNION & EUROPE

For 70 years after Napoleon I installed a new monetary system to replace the hyperinflationary fiat Assignat, France under the Latin Monetary Union led the world in monetary science. Almost half of the world's silver & gold circulated in France during that time. Its sound bimetallism(15.5:1 ratio) attracted other countries who issued gold & silver coins to the same standard: 90% fine gold (21.6 karat) containing 0.1867 troy ounces in the 20 franc and 0.09335 tr. oz. in the 10 franc. France, Belgium, Italy, Switzerland, Greece, Romania, Austria-Hungary, Venezuela, Serbia, and Bulgaria all minted gold coins to that standard. The 20 franc gold coin (or lira or drachmai, etc.) really was what the euro can only pretend to be, a sound money for the world.

Because they were stubborn, the Austro-Hungarian Empire issued coins with dual denominations, 4 florins/10 francs and 8 florins/20 francs, minted both in Austria & Hungary.

In 1892 Austria-Hungary changed to the corona system with gold 10 corona (0.0980 oz), 20 corona (0.1960 troy ounce), & the 100 corona (0.9802 oz). Both the Austrian & Hungarian mints struck these, and today still make re-strikes which are just about the least expensive ounce-sized gold coin you can buy. We sell loads of 'em.

The Austrians also minted trade coinage, the one ducat (0.1106 troy ounce, first minted about a.d. 1150) and the huge gorgeous four ducat (0.4438 tr.oz.) These are almost pure gold, 23-2/3 karat or 98.67% pure.

The bimetallic Latin Monetary Union would still be with us but after the1870-1871 Franco-Prussian War the Germans forced the French to pay an indemnity of five billion gold francs, 46,675,000 ounces. That enabled Germany to abandon the silver standard & wrecked the world's monetary arrangements, forcing it onto a monometallic gold standard. The Germans minted 90% fine (21.6 karat) gold coins, denominated 20 marks & containing 0.2304 troy ounce of gold.

My last offer of small gold coins (Mexican 2 pesos) was so popular that I am offering another one, mostly with coins of the Latin Monetary Union, but a few from Austria-Hungary and Germany as well. Spot gold price basis is $1,257.00.

OFFER No. 1.

One ten franc gold coin (my choice minting country) at $125.50,

Two Napoleon III (pre-1871) 20 francs at $250 each,

Two Angel Writing (1871-1906) 20 francs at $255 each

Two Rooster (1906-1914) 20 francs at $250 each

Two Swiss 20 francs at$ 250 each

One (1) Austrian or Hungarian 8 Florins/20 francs at $250, &

Three (3) Belgian 20 francs at $250.00 Some show a little wear, some look freshly minted. Total gold content Total gold content is 2.3338 troy ounce. $3,135.50 plus $35 for shipping equals $3,170.50 for OFFER 1. I have eight lots only.

OFFER No. 2.

Offer No. 2 is exactly the same as Offer 1 above, but without the One Austrian or Hungarian 8 florins/20 francs. A lighter lot at 2.1471 troy ounce, it also costs less than lot 1. $2,885.50 plus $35 shipping or $2,920.50 for OFFER 2. Two lots only.

OFFER No. 3.

Eight 20 franc size coins: Two each Napoleon III, Two each Angel Writing, Two each Roosters, Two Swiss 20 francs Total weight for these eight coins is 1.4936 troy ounce. Cost is $2010 + $35 shipping or $2,045.00 for OFFER 3. Nine lots only.

OFFER No. 4.

Eleven 20 francs, THREE Napoleon III 20 francs, Two Roosters, Two Angel Writing, and four Swiss 20 francs. Total gold content for all eleven coins is 2.0537 troy ounce. Cost is $2,760 + $35 shipping gives $2,795.00 for OFFER 4 Four lots only.

OFFER No. 5.

Fifteen 20 francs, including Five Napoleon III type, Five Rooster type, and Five Swiss 20 francs. Total gold content for all fifteen coins is 2.8005 troy ounce. Cost is $3,750.00 + $35.00 shipping totalling $3,785.00 for OFFER 5 Two lots only.

OFFER No. 6.

Eighteen 20 francs, including Fourteen Rooster type, and Four Swiss 20 francs. Total gold content for these 18 coins is 3.3606 troy ounce. It's yours for $4,500.00 + $35 shipping or $4,535.00 for OFFER 6. Four lots only.

OFFER No. 7.

Nine German 20 Marks. At 0.2304 troy ounce each these are heavier than the 20 francs. Total gold content for nine coins is 2.0736 troy oz. At $307 each, you pay $2,763.00 + $35, totalling $2,798.00 for OFFER 7. Two lots only.

OFFER No. 8.

One Austrian or Hungarian 10 Corona (0.0980 tr. Oz @ $130.00 ea.) and

Twelve Austrian or Hungarian 20 Coronas (0.1960 oz @ $257.50 ea) These 13 coins total 2.4500 troy ounce of gold. $3,220.00 +$35 shipping equals $3,255.00 for OFFER 8. Seven lots only

OFFER No. 9.

Ten Austrian 1 Ducats ($148 each, 0.1106 oz) and

One Austrian 4 Ducat ($597, 0.443 troy oz). These eleven coins total 1.5490 troy ounces. $2,077.00 + $35 shipping, in total $2,112.00 for OFFER 9 Three lots only.

OFFER No. 10.

Ducats and coronas.

Eight Austrian or Hungarian 20 Coronas (.1960oz @ $257.50 ea.) and

Eleven Austrian one ducats (0.1106 oz. @ $148.00 each). These 19 coins add up to 2.7846 troy ounce. $3,688.00 +$35 shipping for a total of $3,723.00 for OFFER 10 Only one lot.

Special Conditions:

First come, first served, and no re-orders at these prices. I will write orders based on the time I receive your e-mail.

Sorry, we will not take orders for less than the minimum shown above.

All sales on a strict "no-nag" basis. We will ship as soon as your check clears, but we allow Two weeks (14 days) for your check to clear. Calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely and patiently rebuffed.

It increases your chances of getting your order filled if you offer me a second choice, e.g., "I want to order One of Lot 2, but if not available will take One of Lot 1 or Lot 4." ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:

1. You may order by e-mail only to offers@the-moneychanger.com. No phone orders, please. Please do NOT order by replying to THIS email, because it will delay your email.

Your email must include your complete name, address, & phone number. We cannot ship to you without your address. Sorry, we cannot ship outside the United States or to Tennessee.

Repeat, you must include your complete name, address, and phone number. Our clairvoyant quit without warning last week, then I tripped, dropped, & smashed my crystal ball, & our fortune-teller is on strike, so I can no longer read your mind.

2. When you buy from us, we cannot later change or cancel the trade. We are giving you our word that we will sell at that price, & you are giving us your word that you will buy at that price, regardless what later happens in the market, up or down.

If you break your word to us, we will never again do business with you.

3. Orders are on a first-come, first-served basis until supply is exhausted.

4. "First come, first-served" means that we will enter the orders in the order that we receive them by e-mail.

5. If your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation. If you do not receive a confirmation, your order was not filled.

6. You will need to send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. It just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours.

7. "No Nag Basis" means that we allow fourteen (14) days for personal checks to clear before we ship.

Want your order faster? Send a bank wire, but that's not required. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, you'll see your order in about one month if you send a check.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
29-Jan-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,285.90 -31.30 -2.38%
Silver, $/oz 16.76 -1.31 -7.25%
Gold/Silver Ratio 76.734 3.831 5.26%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0130 -0.0007 -4.99%
Platinum 1,216.80 -40.80 -3.24%
Palladium 772.90 -24.70 -3.10%
S&P 500 2,021.25 19.09 0.95%
Dow 17,416.85 225.48 1.31%
Dow in GOLD $s 279.99 10.19 3.78%
Dow in GOLD oz 13.54 0.49 3.78%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,039.32 87.83 9.23%
US Dollar Index 94.94 0.18 0.19%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,256.90      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,287.07 1,300.89 1,300.89
1/2 AE 0.50 640.51 666.16 1,332.31
1/4 AE 0.25 323.39 337.79 1,351.17
1/10 AE 0.10 131.87 138.26 1,382.59
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,223.39 1,232.39 1,257.28
British sovereign 0.24 298.09 303.09 1,287.57
French 20 franc 0.19 236.42 240.42 1,287.75
Krugerrand 1.00 1,269.47 1,279.47 1,279.47
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,271.90 1,286.90 1,286.90
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 722.72 659.87 1,319.75
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 320.51 336.22 1,344.88
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 133.23 137.00 1,370.02
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,503.20 1,514.20 1,255.86
.9999 bar 1.00 1,261.30 1,272.90 1,272.90
SPOT SILVER: 16.89      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 23.00 26.00 33.99
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 19.00 22.00 28.76
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,827.10 13,184.60 18.44
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,790.80 4,940.80 16.75
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,679.00 1,739.00 17.39
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 173.90 174.90 17.49
1 oz .999 round 1.00 16.99 17.54 17.54
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 18.39 19.24 19.24
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,216.80      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,241.80 1,281.80 1,281.80
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Copyright Notice

© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

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