The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Thursday, 12 February a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive

"I'm not saying let's go kill all the stupid people. I'm just saying let's remove all the warning labels and let the problem work itself out."

Okay, Candide, break out the shampagnee! This is once again the best of all possible worlds with the best of all possible Rulers. Europeans including Ferkel and Howling made a deal with the Russians to replace the September cease-fire in Ukraine that failed with another cease-fire. No more'n a nat'ral born durn fool from Tennessee, it looks like to me like the Rooshuns got everything they wanted. But then, after poking 'em in the eye fifty times, maybe the Europeans & the US ought to give 'em a little somethin'. And Ukraine might as well get prepared for dismemberment. (On top of everything, the US senate confirmed Mr. Magoo as Secretary of Defense today. Secretary, my foot! I bet he don't even know shorthand.)

The Deal That Wasn't A Deal. The Euros & the Greeks made a deal, but it's not really a deal. Greeks agreed to meet for talks with their creditors, but the EU finance ministers made no statement after their meeting. Then the Euro Central Bank said it would give Greece cash to operate one more week, until 18 February. Finance ministers meet again on Monday, when they will dither further & throw more bones & scraps to the Greeks. Not likely the Greeks will bite. Ain't got no teeth.

Candide moved into stocks heavily today. Dow shot up 110.24 (0.62%) to end at 17,972.38, its highest level since 2015 began. S&P500 leapt 19.95 to close 2,088.48, it's loftiest since 29 December 2014. Ain't dat sumthin'! May reach higher still. Stocks are a big market & take a long time to turn 'round.

Dow in gold rose, but only 0.42% to G$304.29 (14.72 troy oz). Beginning to wonder if it won't rise to the top gator jaw (G$313.29 or 15.35 oz). Got to remind yourself that Gator Jaws are frustrating formations that take a long time to complete. Like fishin' -- you got to be patient.

Dow in silver rose 0.56% to S$1,383.65 silver dollars (1,070.17 tr. Oz). Don't bother me none - I am patient & I can take it.

Still appears to me that the Dow in Metals peaked and turned down in December/November. That still implies the price lows for gold & silver lie behind us, as well as stocks' relative highs against metals.

US dollar index' actions today finally revealed its heart: it sank like a drunk in a 55 gallon rain barrel. Chart's here,

Sure, the trumpeted but bogus good news from Europe ought to have pulled the plug on the dollar, but it dropped 96 basis points (1.01%) at 94.22 & cut clean through the 20 DMA at 94.31. That never looks good no matter who does it. Turns out yesterday's breakout was a fakeout. Odds suggest as strongly as fixed dice that the dollar will experience lower altitude soon.

Don't think the dollar's bad day was the euro's good day. Don't work that way for what has become the Sorry Mangy Yeller Dog of sorry, scrofulous fiat currencies. It did rise 0.55$% to $1.1407, but so what? Barely poked its head above the 20 DMA & needs to comb above $1.1800 to earn any credibility a-tall,.

Yield fell on US 10 year treasury note. Still odd. WTIC oil rose 3.58% to $51.21 a barrel, & has a little rally running.

Yen surprised with a 1.17% rise to 84.04c/Y100, but that likely is just a touchback to breakdown. Sequel will probably be lower yen.

Hot zig! Gold rose $1.1o to $1,220.10 today, just a-blowin' & goin' on the Comex. And silver rose 3.3 cents to 1677.8. Be still, my beatin' heart!

Y'all settle down! I'm just teasin' with you. I have good news.

Gold bounced up off that neckline smartly. Hit 1,232.80 today, higher than the 50 DMA (1,229.40). Didn't stay there, but it reversed upward after striking bottom Bollinger Band yesterday. Another higher close yesterday would clinch a trend change (to upward). Chart:

Here's silver. It jumped today clean to the falling wedge's top boundary & above (barely) the 50 DMA. Breakout tomorrow back above that neckline would be strong evidence Silver has turned up, too.

In other words, silver & gold may have turned up today. I'm not positive, and it's hard to be, out here on this limb sawing the way I am, but I reckon there's a good chance they've turned. Something unexpected, say, some real heel-digging by Greece, would put some rocket fuel in 'em.

On 12 February 1733 James Oglethorpe founded the colony of Georgia, at the site that became Savannah. Now if y'all EVER get a chance to visit Savannah, grab it. Even all the cheesy tourist attractions can't obscure the wondrous architecture and live-oak shaded squares. No place in North America like it.

On 12 February 1873 and probably without realizing the import of the Act, President Grant signed into law the Coinage Act of 1873, better known as the "Crime of '73." By not providing for minting dollar coins, the law by the sneaky back door demonetized silver. Gertrude Coogan reports that English bankers had sent agents with half a million in gold to buy passage of the act (congressmen were cheaper in those days, remember). If you don't understand the scope of this fraud or the cosmic significance of bimetallism, Please read my short article, "Bimetallism, the Only Enduring Standard" at

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
12-Feb-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,220.10 1.10 0.09%
Silver, $/oz 16.78 0.03 0.20%
Gold/Silver Ratio 72.720 -0.078 -0.11%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0138 0.0000 0.11%
Platinum 1,203.50 5.90 0.49%
Palladium 773.95 -7.10 -0.91%
S&P 500 2,088.48 19.95 0.96%
Dow 17,972.38 110.24 0.62%
Dow in GOLD $s 304.50 1.59 0.53%
Dow in GOLD oz 14.73 0.08 0.53%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,071.19 4.47 0.42%
US Dollar Index 94.22 -0.96 -1.01%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,220.40      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,246.03 1,263.11 1,263.11
1/2 AE 0.50 621.89 646.81 1,293.62
1/4 AE 0.25 314.00 327.98 1,311.93
1/10 AE 0.10 128.04 134.24 1,342.44
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,187.86 1,196.86 1,221.04
British sovereign 0.24 289.44 294.44 1,250.79
French 20 franc 0.19 229.56 233.56 1,250.98
Krugerrand 1.00 1,235.04 1,245.04 1,245.04
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,235.40 1,250.40 1,250.40
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 701.73 640.71 1,281.42
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 311.20 326.46 1,305.83
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 129.36 133.02 1,330.24
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,461.02 1,472.02 1,220.88
.9999 bar 1.00 1,224.67 1,236.40 1,236.40
SPOT SILVER: 16.80      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 23.00 26.00 33.99
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 19.00 22.00 28.76
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,651.93 13,009.43 18.20
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,762.78 4,912.78 16.65
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,669.50 1,729.50 17.30
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 172.95 173.95 17.40
1 oz .999 round 1.00 16.90 17.45 17.45
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 18.30 19.15 19.15
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,203.50      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,228.50 1,268.50 1,268.50
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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