The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Wednesday, 18 February a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive

The FOMC January minutes released today didn't even rise to a mouse-burp. Maybe only a rumble in a roach's rumen. In this "good-cop/bad-cop" game they play to keep the jaws of the credulous hanging open, one month they are going to raise interest rates, the next month no, not yet. Mercy, nobody catches on the criminals haven't a clue what they will do, nor when they will do it. More than that, if they ever declare when they are going to raise rates, it's liable to spook a stampede out of bonds that would look worse than September 2008. They're trapped as a weasel in a pipe.

Did I mention lately that all the deflation talk from central bank criminals world wide is pure-D hogwash? Ranks right up there with the Easter Bunny, Santa Claus, Big Foot, and Global Warming/Climate Change. Not a trace of it on the whole face of the earthball. Ne'er a one.

So next time you hear some CB criminal or politician intoning pompously about "deflation," you may draw either of two conclusions: 1, he is lying, or 2, he is ignorant as a horned toad.

Oddest thing happened today, again. The US dollar index closed unchanged. That's odd enough in itself, but it comes two days after the dollar index closed unchanged on 13 February 2013. Not normal, friends.

Dollar index began the day below its 20 Dma (94.49) and stayed there. Tried one to poke through the 20 DMA and failed. Technically it is trending lower, with lower lows and lower highs. Indicators show gravity has control.

Euro lost 0.8% to end at $1.1404. The great ECB QE program that was going to save Europe for the corporations hasn't helped or hurt the euro much. It remains unconscious. It is trading lackadaisically out into the nose of an even sided triangle, so has a tee-tiny uptrend running, but just can't find any mojo.

Yen can't find any direction, other than sideways. Gained 0.46% today to close at 83.76 cents/Y100. Range trading like a Galapagos Island tortoise in a steamed-up hurry.

Stocks wanted to drop today, but rose toward day's end. Dow still lost 17.73 (0.1%) to 18,029.85. S&P500, beginning to specialize in wee moves, lost 0.66 (0.03%) to 2,099.68. Dow in Gold & Dow in silver both hooked down slightly, not enough to change anything.

Somebody got out his government-issue paint today & got busy painting the tape. Gold lost $8.40 (-0.7%) to a demoralizing below-$1,200 close at $1,199.70. Yet the paint wouldn't stick. In the aftermarket gold rose to $1,210.30.

Silver coughed up 11.2c (-0.68%) to close Comex at 1625c. In the aftermarket it rose slap back to and past yesterday's aftermarket, namely, 1644.5c.

Behold, what bewitching patterns they leave behind on a painted tape day! Gold, for instance, laid down the first day of a key reversal by trading into new low territory for the move, then closing higher (remember, I'm looking at an End of Day chart, not painted up Comex). The low today at $1,197.20 brought gold whisker close to the since-November uptrend line at $1,195, but even that was enough to slap its jaws & turn it around. Another higher close tomorrow clinches a key reversal. Lo, some indicators are also trying to turn their noses toward the moon, too.

Ever more volatile silver closed below that uptrend line yesterday & stayed there today. Huh? Wonder why it didn't follow thru downside after it punched through that uptrend? Way-ull, silver IS more volatile than gold, and prone to treat those support and resistance and trend lines no better than a teenage prom queen treats her many beaus -- without any respect.

But look here. That falling wedge of silver's is still a-working, & it hit the bottom boundary today and stopped. Bottom Bollinger band is at 1615c. It's time to be buying it, not running away.

By the way, if any of y'all are hankering to buy gold, think about buying the US $20 gold pieces, Liberty type, Extremely Fine (XF) grade. They will cost about the same money per ounce as a modern issue American Eagle. Remember they contain only 0.9675 troy ounce of gold, so you have to divide the coin price by 0.9675 to determine cost per ounce. If you're interested, call us at (888) 218-9226. I don't normally recommend the old (pre-1934) US$20s because in the past their premium has been so high & I knew that anything with that much air would collapse sooner or later. Well, it has. If you just want the cheapest & best bullion coins money can buy, stick with the Austrian 100 coronas and Mexican 50 pesos, and save $40 an ounce over American Eagles.

If trying to sort out cost per ounce and what kind of silver or gold you ought to buy gives you a headache, you ought to get hold of my Instant Expert Cheat Sheet at http://store.the-moneychanger.com/products/instant-expert-cheat-sheet I am running a special sale on it, reduced from US$49 to US$29 for ten days only. It will lead you through the silver & gold maze.

Today is Ash Wednesday, the beginning of Lent for millions of Christians around the world. Lent is not, a some think, a season of sucking on ashes & making yourself as wretched as possible, but a season to ponder the great grace of God to us in Jesus Christ by removing as many distractions as possible.

On 18 February 1861 the first president of the Confederacy, Jefferson Davis, was inaugurated at Montgomery.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
18-Feb-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,199.70 -8.40 -0.70%
Silver, $/oz 16.25 -0.11 -0.68%
Gold/Silver Ratio 73.828 -0.008 -0.01%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0135 0.0000 0.01%
Platinum 1,170.20 -9.80 -0.83%
Palladium 776.90 -6.65 -0.85%
S&P 500 2,099.68 0.66 0.03%
Dow 18,029.85 17.73 0.10%
Dow in GOLD $s 310.67 2.46 0.80%
Dow in GOLD oz 15.03 0.12 0.80%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,109.53 8.68 0.79%
US Dollar Index 94.11 0.00 0.00%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,210.30      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,240.56 1,252.66 1,252.66
1/2 AE 0.50 616.74 641.46 1,282.92
1/4 AE 0.25 311.39 325.27 1,301.07
1/10 AE 0.10 126.98 133.13 1,331.33
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,178.03 1,187.03 1,211.01
British sovereign 0.24 287.04 292.04 1,240.62
French 20 franc 0.19 227.66 231.66 1,240.80
Krugerrand 1.00 1,224.82 1,234.82 1,234.82
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,225.30 1,240.30 1,240.30
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 695.92 635.41 1,270.82
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 308.63 323.76 1,295.02
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 128.29 131.92 1,319.23
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,450.38 1,461.38 1,212.06
.9999 bar 1.00 1,214.54 1,226.30 1,226.30
SPOT SILVER: 16.45      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 23.00 26.00 33.99
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 19.00 22.00 28.76
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,437.43 12,794.93 17.90
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,659.53 4,809.53 16.30
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,634.50 1,694.50 16.95
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 169.45 170.45 17.05
1 oz .999 round 1.00 16.55 17.10 17.10
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 17.95 18.80 18.80
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,170.20      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,195.20 1,235.20 1,235.20
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Copyright Notice

© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

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