The Moneychanger
Weekly Commentary
Friday, 27 March a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive
Here's the weekly scorecard:
  20-Mar-15 27-Mar-15 Change % Change
Silver, cents/oz. 1,686.70 1,705.20 18.50 1.1
Gold, dollars/oz. 1,184.80 1,199.80 15.00 1.3
Gold/silver ratio 70.244 70.361 0.118 0.2
Silver/gold ratio 0.0142 0.0142 -0.0000 -0.2
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$) 316.28 305.17 -11.11 -3.5
Dow in gold ounces 15.30 14.76 -0.54 -3.5
Dow in Silver ounces 1,074.74 1,038.71 -36.03 -3.4
Dow Industrials 18,127.65 17,712.06 -415.59 -2.3
S&P500 2,108.10 2,060.97 -47.13 -2.2
US dollar index 98.14 97.54 -0.60 -0.6
Platinum 1,142.20 1,143.60 1.40 0.1
Palladium 778.76 740.65 -38.11 -4.9

Dow lost a hefty 415.59 or 2.3% this week, S&P500 lost 2.2%. Unless stocks can scrabble back above the March high, the plunge has begun, the end of the long Fed-sponsored stock bull market. Silver & gold advanced steadily, soldiering through heavy resistance -- good progress. US dollar continues to fall, while inflation markets copper & oil strengthen. Platinum ended the weak flat but palladium took a $32.35 fall today.

Glyphosate is the generic name of Round Up, and come spring they spray it all over fields to kill everything living, then come back & plant Roundup resistant GMO corn & soybeans. Monsanto the maker claims it has a short half life, but I don't believe them. More than that, glyphosate washes off that field and into branches, creeks, and streams, so there's a strong likelihood it ends up in your drinking water.

Y'all will get a laugh out of this: a "scientific" lobbyist-apologist for glyphosate in an interview offers to drink a glass of glyphosate. The interview says, we've got some here, I'll pour you a glass. Watch him go backward faster than a jet propelled crawfish:

Stocks took a beating all week, and were taking another one today until about 10:30 when the god-out-of-a-machine (Nice Government Me) or somebody) commenced a-buying and drove 'em up 82 points for a close at 17,712.06, up 33.83 or 0.19%. S&P500 end 4.82 or 0.23% higher at 2,060.97. Both are on the downside of the uptrend line from March 2009.

Once again, as long as stocks do not exceed the March highs, 18,288.63 & 2,117.35, they have topped, as in, "ended the upmove that began in March 2009." Time to start thinking about swapping stocks for gold and silver. Look at what the Dow in Gold & Dow in Silver are saying.

Dow in gold fishhooked up today after plunging since 19 March without a single up day. It has sunk from G$322.07 gold dollars (15.58 troy ounces) to G$305.53 (14.78 oz), far below its top gator jaw and 20 DMA (G$314.83 or 15.23 oz) and closing in on the 50 DMA (G$300.77 or 14.65 oz). Take a look for yourself,

Dow in silver has fallen harder and faster than the Dow in silver, from S$1,487.45 silver dollars (1150.45 oz) to S$1,349.51 (1043.76 oz) today, right nearly 10%. Unarguable confirmation comes when it drops through the trap door at the 200 DMA, now $1,269.70 (982.03 oz.), 'bout the same spot it will hit the uptrend line from August 2013.

Waiting for more confirmation, but now it appears stocks have topped against silver & gold. That's why I say it's time to start thinking about swapping stocks for silver & gold, 'specially in those IRAs.

US Dollar index has fallen below its half channel line & can't get up. Needs Life Alert. Fell another 15 basis points (0.15%) to 97.54, below the 20 DMA (97.96). Appears minded to move to the bottom channel line, toward 94. According to a Commerce Department report (as much as you can trust any lying yankee government report) corporate profits dropped in the last quarter for the biggest fall since Q1-2011. Maybe the high dollar is hurting exports after all, which explains why the FOMC had to talk the dollar down.

The euro, which has no more ambition than a hillbilly living on free moonshine, rose 0.11% to $1.0888. Just can't get a rally tuned up and running, although it's on the upside of the downtrend line. Market just doesn't trust it. Yen is clinging to its 50 DMA -- closed up 0.01% at 83.91, which I call motionless.

WTIC backed down 4.18% to $48.87/barrel, but that's all right. It's about to break out to the upside, just needs to beat $54. Copper backed down, too, but remains broken out above the top of a rising triangle.

As I suspected, after 7 days' rising silver & gold needed a rest, especially at 1700c & $1,200 resistance. Today silver gave back 7 cents (0.41%) to close Comex at 1705.2c. Gold lost $5.00 (0.48%) at $1,199.80.

Obviously yesterday, with its thrusts to 1741c & $1,219.50 was the top of the first leg up. Next comes a little -- not big -- correction, maybe back to 1650c & $1,190 before metals launch their next leg. Pause shouldn't last many days.

On a weekly chart gold has painted a falling wedge. This week it closed plumb on top of that upper boundary. Silver hit but did not close over the analogous upper boundary on its weekly chart. Both need weekly chart breakouts to confirm daily action.

Gold silver ratio today closed little charged at 70.361 ounces of silver to one ounce of gold. The ratio hit the too DMA (now 69.84) and bounced up, and is dancing along the uptrend line from the April 2011 low, the Big One.

Take advantage of the little correction next week - if it gives us a chance -- to buy more silver & gold.

I was amused this morning to hear the news on National Proletarian Radio self-righteously humpfing over the religious liberty bill passed in Indiana. The presentation would have made Dr. Goebbels & his Nazis or the Soviet propaganda ministry proud. Free speech is dead in the US, dead as a hammer. Oh, you are free to say anything you like, as long as it agrees with Our Masters. Step outside the Magic Circle of Political Correctness & the media will line up crucify you like Romans crucifying the Spartacus' followers . Truth & Reason lie unconscious in the street, beaten to a bloody pulp. This won't end well.

On 27 March 1863 was declared a day of prayer and fasting by CS President Jefferson Davis.

On 27 March 1964 the strongest earthquake in American history, 8.4 on the Richter scale, occurred in Southern Alaska. 114 were killed and thousands injured by the quake & tsunamis. Anchorage was heavily damaged. Tsunamis killed people as far away as Crescent City, California.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
27-Mar-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,199.80 -5.00 -0.4
Silver, $/oz 17.05 -0.07 -0.4
Gold/Silver Ratio 70.361 -0.290 -0.4
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0142 -0.0001 -0.4
Platinum 1,140.90 -10.40 -0.9
Palladium 740.65 -32.35 -4.2
S&P 500 2,060.97 4.82 0.2
Dow 17,712.06 33.83 0.2
Dow in GOLD $s 305.17 1.88 0.6
Dow in GOLD oz 14.76 0.09 0.6
Dow in SILVER oz 1,038.71 6.22 0.6
US Dollar Index 97.54 -0.15 -0.2
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,197.60      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,228.74 1,239.52 1,239.52
1/2 AE 0.50 610.27 631.73 1,263.47
1/4 AE 0.25 308.12 321.86 1,287.42
1/10 AE 0.10 125.64 131.14 1,311.37
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,165.67 1,174.67 1,198.40
British sovereign 0.24 284.03 289.03 1,227.82
French 20 franc 0.19 225.27 229.27 1,228.01
Krugerrand 1.00 1,211.97 1,221.97 1,221.97
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,205.60 1,221.60 1,221.60
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 688.62 628.74 1,257.48
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 305.39 320.36 1,281.43
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 126.95 130.54 1,305.38
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,433.72 1,444.72 1,198.24
.9999 bar 1.00 1,201.79 1,209.60 1,209.60
SPOT SILVER: 16.90      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 23.00 26.00 33.99
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 18.50 21.00 27.45
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,759.18 13,116.68 18.35
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,792.28 4,942.28 16.75
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,679.50 1,744.50 17.45
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 167.95 174.45 17.45
1 oz .999 round 1.00 17.00 17.50 17.50
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 17.90 19.25 19.25
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,140.90      
Platinum Platypus 1.00 1,155.90 1,185.90 1,185.90
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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