The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Thursday, 9 April a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive

Sometimes the loathsome manifestations of grammatical, stylistic, and vocabulary ignorance are too much for my Inner Grammarian to abide, so get out of my way, I am fixing to blow.

Fungibility matters. An intelligent, kind person who cares that words actually mean something and convey information will never write "less Americans than ever before have filed for unemployment claims" because he knows that doing so turns the vast population of American individuals into undifferentiated oatmeal. "Fewer" refers to individual things, like persons or Toyotas or squid, things that are non-fungible, while "less" refers only to masses of fungible stuff like wheat, diesel fuel, or oxygen, which most of these ignorant writers are wasting.

This particular grammatical outrage appeared on highlightpress.com, where I innocently went looking for information but found only word-soup: http://bit.ly/1Ix7Etu

Equally evil (NOT "equally as evil") and incompetent was theSilverInk.com at http://bit.ly/1cfoAYj with the logically incoherent headline "US jobless claims surge at 15-year low level to 281000 last week." This was followed by equally incoherent jabbering in the article below. In the end, I simply gave up trying to figure whether unemployment was rising, as the word "surge" leaves all us naïve English speakers to expect, or whether it was at a 15-year low. The abuse of language was so depressing & disgusting, it didn't really seem to matter, other than to raise the hope that the people writing these outrages would soon join the well-deserved ranks of those unemployed.

That feels much better.

Today the US dollar index SURGED to a new high for the move, rising 117 basis points (1.20%) to 99.31. Look at the chart to see what "surged" really means: http://scharts.co/1HEYhF1 That cracked resistance at the 20 DMA (98.39), the downtrend line, the last high, & the trading channel's midline, forecasting a move at least to the last high at 100.71. That is not inevitable, but would cap the dollar's SURGE of the last 9 months with a double top and well-earned correction.

Since the Euro is virtually the monetary mirror image of the dollar, it sank pitifully today, down 1.12% to $1.0659. Broke through the bottom of that rising flat-topped triangle and blasted that hope for a rally. Dead dog -- lice & fleas are dropping off & looking for a new canine with a brighter future.

Yen couldn't die today because it hasn't shown any signs of life in the past 4 months. Dropped 0.38% to 82.92, same range, same intertwined 50 & 20 DMAs. No direction.

Stocks are trying to raise their head against a falling ceiling. Dow inched up 56.22 (0.31%) to 17,958.73 while the S&P500 millimetered up 0.45% (9.28) to 2,091.18. Having a hard time revving up RPMs enough to rally.

Gold & silver were knocked to the ground today. Silver lost 27.6 cents (1.7%) to end Comex at 1616.4c. Gold lost 0.8% or $9.50 & closed at $1,193.60. Y'all cast back you minds to 31 March & that $1,178.20 gold low. Today's trading dragged (NOT "drug") us back to the breakout after that low. Indicators point down.

What remains to catch gold & keep it from falling to the world's magma core? The uptrend line off the 17 March low, where it stopped today. If gold does turn around here instead of piercing that uptrend line, well, oh, my! But it must wheel & turn here.

Working against that is the Gold/Silver Ratio, which rose again today, up 1.3%. Gapped up again. Possible that it is running out of steam here, but only if it proves that tomorrow with a lower or sideways close. Chart's here, http://scharts.co/1Fq4lmt

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
9-Apr-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,193.60 -9.50 -0.79%
Silver, $/oz 16.16 -0.28 -1.68%
Gold/Silver Ratio 73.843 0.662 0.90%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0135 -0.0001 -0.90%
Platinum 1,156.40 -9.10 -0.78%
Palladium 762.10 6.70 0.89%
S&P 500 2,091.18 9.28 0.45%
Dow 17,958.73 56.22 0.31%
Dow in GOLD $s 311.02 3.42 1.11%
Dow in GOLD oz 15.05 0.17 1.11%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,111.03 22.07 2.03%
US Dollar Index 99.31 1.17 1.19%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,194.70      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,220.98 1,236.51 1,236.51
1/2 AE 0.50 608.79 630.20 1,260.41
1/4 AE 0.25 307.38 321.08 1,284.30
1/10 AE 0.10 125.34 130.82 1,308.20
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,162.85 1,171.85 1,195.52
British sovereign 0.24 283.34 296.34 1,258.89
French 20 franc 0.19 224.72 228.72 1,225.08
Krugerrand 1.00 1,206.65 1,216.65 1,216.65
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,202.70 1,218.70 1,218.70
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 686.95 627.22 1,254.44
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 304.65 319.58 1,278.33
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 126.64 130.22 1,302.22
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,427.37 1,438.37 1,192.97
.9999 bar 1.00 1,198.88 1,206.70 1,206.70
SPOT SILVER: 16.16      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 23.00 26.00 33.99
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 18.50 21.00 27.45
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,126.40 12,483.90 17.46
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,575.45 4,725.45 16.02
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,606.00 1,671.00 16.71
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 160.60 167.10 16.71
1 oz .999 round 1.00 16.26 16.76 16.76
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 17.16 18.51 18.51
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,156.40      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,171.40 1,201.40 1,201.40
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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