The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Tuesday, 14 April a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive

Hot zig, Hillary Clinton is running for president. We need her. America without Hillary is like a hog without a hair dryer.

Dollar index behaved oddly today, well, just tucked tail & ran although it had a good start on another leg up. Official media bamboozlers blamed the drop on (1) retail sales rose slower than expected, & the IMF lowered its US growth forecast. Daddurn! If I can imagine any wormy, flea-bitten creature I'd lean on less, trust less, and expect less from than an IMF economist, I don't know what it is. Folks had to hear it from those peawits to believe US growth will sink next year? They are dumber than even I believed. I fear sometimes there jes' ain't no hope for intelligence -- it's an endangered species in the US. Go watch the movie Idiocracy -- it's likely a more accurate forecast of US growth than the IMF's.

Maybe it's just a liverish day for me, so let's get back to the US dollar index. It plummeted (one of 30 known synonyms for "fell sharply") 75 basis points (0.75%) to 99.01, but skidded to a halt above its 20 DMA (98.38). Now that might be a normal corrective move after 5 days' rising & a breakout through a downtrend line, but it seems skittish, ill-mannered, and weak-willed. There's a midline I'm watching in the dollar index's trading channel. Tomorrow it's right at 98.80, and a close below that would imply one might have to inscribe "Ichabod!" over the dollar's door: "the glory has departed."

Like a roomful of flighty teenage girls stocks giggled & cried at the same time today. Nasdaq & Nasdaq-100 & Russell 2000 fell, Dow & S&P 500 rose. Disagreement betrays weakness & indecision. Buyers are losing confidence.

Dow did creep up 57.33 (0.32%) to 18,034.37. S&P500 added a microscopic 3.02 (0.14%) to 2,095.45. Y'all remember what I told y'all yesterday, don't you? Both indices hit their upper boundary lines and shrank back like Bela Lugosi's Dracula facing a crucifix? Wilted like Superman contemplating Kryptonite, Bill Clinton facing virtue, or George Bush pondering English grammar. That's a sign of weakness. Oh, they haven't closed beneath moving averages yet, but they are close enough to smell 'em. Won't be long before stocks land in trouble again.

I haven't written lately about the Dow in Gold or Dow in Silver because they have been zigzagging upwards little bites at a time, but all the while still within the Gator Jaws and completing that fatal formation for a plunge into the abyss.

What!? I forgot the euro? After yesterday's abysmal low it gained 0.79% today to $1.0657, still mired in the mud. Nothing happening there yet. Yen popped up 0.59% today to 83.74, above its 20 & 50 day moving averages and showing a little life. Heart rate up to 55, respiration 4.

Oil is liable to surprise all the rationalizers & linear projectors with a big rally. WTIC rose 2.5% to $53.29 today. At any price above $54.25/barrel it breaks out of trading range prison that has confined it since February began.

Silver & gold broke down today. Gold tumbled $6.50 (0.54%) to $1,192.80 while silver lost 12.9 cents (0.8%) to 1615.1c.

With today's break gold punched through the uptrend line from the March low at $1.141.60. It did not, however, close below its 20 DMA ($1,191.92). Made a new low for the move at $1,183.50. Support exists at the last low, $1,178.20, but nothing else between there and $1,141.60, and right now gravity has the cockpit.

Silver likewise broke to a new low for the move at 1595c. Support awaits at 1575c - 1580c & at the March low, 1526c.

Gold/Silver Ratio may have the only positive sign. It stopped at the downtrend line from the January high, but that ain't much.

I'm content to wait a while longer. Whole yankee government establishment & every central bank in the world is on gold & silver's side, working hard as their little NGM hearts will let 'em to wreck economies. By golly, I admire determination!

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
14-Apr-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,192.80 -6.50 -0.54%
Silver, $/oz 16.15 -0.13 -0.79%
Gold/Silver Ratio 73.853 0.186 0.25%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0135 -0.0000 -0.25%
Platinum 1,153.70 0.20 0.02%
Palladium 762.20 8.90 1.18%
S&P 500 2,095.45 3.02 0.14%
Dow 18,034.37 57.33 0.32%
Dow in GOLD $s 312.54 2.68 0.87%
Dow in GOLD oz 15.12 0.13 0.87%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,116.61 12.37 1.12%
US Dollar Index 99.01 -0.75 -0.75%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,192.80      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,217.85 1,234.55 1,234.55
1/2 AE 0.50 607.82 629.20 1,258.40
1/4 AE 0.25 306.89 320.57 1,282.26
1/10 AE 0.10 125.14 130.61 1,306.12
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,163.34 1,172.34 1,196.02
British sovereign 0.24 282.89 295.89 1,256.97
French 20 franc 0.19 224.37 228.37 1,223.17
Krugerrand 1.00 1,204.73 1,214.73 1,214.73
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,200.80 1,216.80 1,216.80
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 685.86 626.22 1,252.44
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 304.16 319.07 1,276.30
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 126.44 130.02 1,300.15
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,425.10 1,436.10 1,191.09
.9999 bar 1.00 1,196.97 1,204.80 1,204.80
SPOT SILVER: 16.17      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 23.00 26.00 33.99
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 18.50 21.00 27.45
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,026.30 12,383.80 17.32
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,578.40 4,728.40 16.03
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,607.00 1,672.00 16.72
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 160.70 167.20 16.72
1 oz .999 round 1.00 16.27 16.77 16.77
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 17.17 18.52 18.52
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,153.70      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,168.70 1,198.70 1,198.70
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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