The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Thursday, 16 April a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive

I wonder how many Americans understand that many of their senators & congressman work for somebody other than their electoral constituents? I have to wonder that when I read that both a senate & congressional committee approved a bill to give Obama fast-track authority to push new globalist trade deals through congress. Never mind the delegation of congressional authority to the executive, destroying the constitutional separation of powers. The deal would authorize the president to cut new trade deals with Asia & Europe involving about 2/3 of the world's economy. What reveals the fix is in? Numerous committee members didn't even know the bill was coming up for a vote. Shades of passing the Federal Reserve Act on 23 December 1913, when nobody was home in congress.

Hey, it takes a globe to suck the village dry!

Meanwhile, back at the already-struggling-under-the-chains-of-central-banking US economy, things ain't peachy. Somebody broke a whiskey bottle over the dollar's head, stocks can hardly stand, & confusion reigns. Them globalists sure know how to run an economy. If they're doing this well with the US, what WILL they do with the entire globe?

Stocks chopped up and down but all indices ended lower. If not much lower, well, not higher, either.

Dow lost 6.84 (0.4%) to 18,105.77 and the S&P500 shaved off 1.65 (0.08%) to close at 2,104.99. Yesterday on small gains both indices had poked their heads (intraday) through overhead downtrend lines. Today the pulled them back in. Bleeding will become profuse when Dow closes below 17,620 & S&P500 below 2,030. Yeah, yeah, I know, they're nowhere near there. Jes' watch.

Out of the Dow in metals today cam only meaningless jiggles that change naught.

Mercy! That US dollar index plumb fell off a limb! Lost 73 basis points (0.74%), punched through the 20 DMA (98.26) and came to rest at 97.79. Fast puking back those gains it gobbled on the way up a week ago. Now has the feeling of a parabolic rise un-rising: faster than they rise, they fall.

If I had an electron microscope, I could hardly find anything edifying on the euro chart. It did climb up today & poke its noggin into the 20 DMA (1.0725), but couldn't close above it. Gained 0.73% to $1.0766. Probably it has posted a double bottom, March & April but as yet has neither affirmed nor denied.

Keeping its head down so's not to attract attention, yen today gained 0.8% to 84.00.

West Texas Intermediate Crude validated yesterday's breakout by climbing another 1.36% today to $56.71/barrel. Ought to rally nearly to $70.

In another inflation market, copper may be forming a bull flag, ready for another little rally that will take it above its 200 DMA. Warms my gold & silver loving heart to see copper getting in the blocks to run.

Here's an example how a fresh perspective can add useful information. I mentioned to y'all yesterday that the Gold/US dollar index spread (measuring gold by the US dollar index instead of the US dollar) showed an even-sided triangle about to break out to the upside. Today gold cracked that downtrend line and closed plumb on the upper boundary. Every indicator screams this rally will continue. Y'all go look at the chart for yourselves:

Silver/US dollar index spread also has an even-sided triangle, but has not matured as much as the Gold/USD spread. But it did cross an important internal resistance line today, and is fixin' to cross its intertwined 20 & 50 DMAs. All indicators also point up.

But in US dollar terms, gold & silver slumbered the day away. Comex gold lost $3.50 (0.3%) to $1,198, swinging again below $1,200, but not much. Silver lost 7/10 of one cent to 1627.6c.

Gold has a tee-tiny uptrend running, and has climbed over its 50 & 20 DMAs. But when I step back from the chart and look at the last 16 months, I see what looks like a double bottom, Nov. '14 - March '15, or you might call it a rounding bottom. I've tried to draw it for you on this chart, where the bowl's lip stands about $1,345. Look at it here,

Tomorrow is critical for gold. Can it climb back through that uptrend line from the March low, or not? That will take a close above $1,210.

Silver keeps poking its head higher every day, but can't hold on there. Stasis can't last forever.

Time, however, is working for gold & silver & against the dollar & stocks. Not much longer now until we can call an end to this long correction.

With that uncanny Stuart skill for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory & abandoning their friends, Bonnie Prince Charlie Stuart on 16 April 1745 lost the Battle of Culloden to the German/English Duke of Cumberland, ending the Rising of '45, marking the end of Stuart pretensions to the English throne, and consigning his followers to death & persecution. Bonnie Charlie, in brave Stuart fashion, chose not share the persecution but chose safe exile in France. Many of the rebels were executed, but many were "transported" to British colonies for life, some as slaves. The English used the occasion to crush independent Scottish culture such as banning highland dress & the tartan. British bayonets stopped the Celtic charge at Culloden.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
16-Apr-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,198.00 -3.50 -0.29%
Silver, $/oz 16.28 -0.01 -0.04%
Gold/Silver Ratio 73.605 -0.183 -0.25%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0136 0.0000 0.25%
Platinum 1,158.50 2.60 0.22%
Palladium 779.45 12.65 1.65%
S&P 500 2,104.99 -1.65 -0.08%
Dow 18,105.77 -6.84 -0.04%
Dow in GOLD $s 312.42 0.79 0.25%
Dow in GOLD oz 15.11 0.04 0.25%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,112.42 0.06 0.01%
US Dollar Index 97.79 -0.73 -0.74%
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SPOT GOLD: 1,199.00      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,222.98 1,240.97 1,240.97
1/2 AE 0.50 610.98 632.47 1,264.95
1/4 AE 0.25 308.49 322.23 1,288.93
1/10 AE 0.10 125.79 131.29 1,312.91
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,169.38 1,178.38 1,202.19
British sovereign 0.24 284.36 297.36 1,263.22
French 20 franc 0.19 225.53 229.53 1,229.42
Krugerrand 1.00 1,210.99 1,220.99 1,220.99
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,207.00 1,223.00 1,223.00
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 689.43 629.48 1,258.95
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 305.75 320.73 1,282.93
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 127.09 130.69 1,306.91
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,433.95 1,444.95 1,198.43
.9999 bar 1.00 1,203.20 1,211.00 1,211.00
SPOT SILVER: 16.26      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 23.00 26.00 33.99
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 18.50 21.00 27.45
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,015.58 12,373.08 17.31
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,603.48 4,753.48 16.11
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,615.50 1,680.50 16.81
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 161.55 168.05 16.81
1 oz .999 round 1.00 16.36 16.86 16.86
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 17.26 18.61 18.61
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,158.50      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,173.50 1,203.50 1,203.50
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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