The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Thursday, 23 April a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive

Odd thing happened today. Like symphony orchestras, markets ought to play in tune, or something's wrong. When related markets play out of tune, strings will break.

The Nasdaq Composite today finally posted a marginal new high above its March 2000 high close, 5,048.62 then against 5,056.06 today. Fifteen years is a long time to wait for eight points, but there it is. NYSE also made a marginal new high, 50 points on 11,118.

Here's where they have to get in tune: no other indices made new highs. Now, they might do that tomorrow or the next day, but if the others fail to make new highs, or, worse yet, turn down, then that disharmony reveals underlying weakness. 'Twould be the same if gold kept rising to new highs with silver lagging further and further behind.

Dow today rose 20.42 (0.11%) to 18,058.69 while the S&P500 added 4.97 (0.24%) to 2,112.93 -- neither at new highs. However S&P500 closed slightly above its upper triangle boundary. Dow remained below it upper channel line.

Even if stock indices made new marginal highs, so what? At six years and a month old, the present upmove in stocks is one of history's longest. Want to bet on it extending another year? How about trying to draw a Queen to finish out that A-K-J-10 straight?

Dow in Gold & Dow in Silver both fishhooked down today, not enough to talk about.

US dollar index finally felt around with its feet in the dark long enough to find the trap door and fall through it. Fell 68 basis points (0.7%) and almost touched the 50 DMA (97.28, left the 20 DMA behind at 98.25). That ought to have broken the back of its strength, but it needs to close below that 50 DMA and 96.50 support before we can pronounce it dead for sure.

Euro rose 0.92% to $1.0824, above its 20 DMA for the first time in three weeks. Yen rose 0.33% to 83.65. Neither currency has established a rally.

Gold & silver today added to our frustration by rising again, more of the pendulum we've been watching so long. That stubborn refusal to follow through on falls looks like the long correction is exhausted -- over.

Gold rose $7.50 to $1,194.40, bouncing away from that last low ($1,183.50) & above the 50 DMA ($1,193.36). Silver scraped 3.3 pennies off the floor to close at 1582.4c.

Listen, the longer they refuse to plunge and make new lows, especially after the sort of day gold had yesterday, the better. Both have bounced up off support. Both silver & gold remain within those bowls I talked about, & neither have broken out the bottom. The $gold:$US dollar index spread also bounced off support, but can't or hasn't climbed above the 50 day moving average. Look here, http://scharts.co/1IOaHui

Something else is poking me in the mind, too. While our business has been lethargic this year, some might say comatose, within the last four weeks or so very large orders have been coming in, serious buyers putting serious money into silver and gold. Res ipsa loquitur.

I rarely ask y'all for favors, but I have devoted a large piece of my life to returning this country to gold and silver money, and I need one now. Sound money is the chief political-economic issue in our time. Until it's fixed, banks & government will keep on bleeding you and your family dry.

I recently met Keith Weiner and the Gold Standard Institute (GSI). When I looked closer at his work and the Institute, I immediately recognized the rare depth of his understanding, and the Institute's powerful potential in the war for sound money. I asked Keith to write a note about the Institute so that I could share it with y'all, because there are so few effective means to fight paper money. Here's one of them. Please read carefully Keith's note, and as a favor to me, consider his plea for help. Thanks -- Franklin Sanders

"For the third year, the Gold Standard Institute helped convince the Arizona legislature to pass a bill recognizing gold and silver coin as money, the first crucial step to restoring a gold and silver standard and rescuing our economy from the chaos of fiat money. Again, the legislature passed the bill, only to watch the Republican governor veto it.

"As GSI Chairman I just flew to Texas to testify before the Texas Senate Business and Commerce Committee on a similar bill currently moving through the legislature.

"What is our brightest hope of restoring sound money? Not Congress, which is no friend of gold, but the states. There legislators will listen.  There we can build momentum, and prove that it's practical to remove the roadblocks to circulating gold and silver. Utah has led the way. Arizona came close this year. Texas may pass it. Your state could be next.

"Energizing people is key. Not even conservative politicians vote for gold unless people demand it.

"But Gold Standard Institute can't do it alone: we need help from friends of sound money everywhere. We need funding to travel. We have to reach more people, which means producing high quality videos, and distributing them. Unlike the friends of paper money, we have no megabanks to lavish us with funds, no corporate lobbyists, no speculators, no predators.  We are just the people, fighting to save our economy, ourselves, & our children from the dollar's fatal disease:  inflation, deflation, zero interest, and economic devastation.

"Every other day or so, you pump $25 to $60 worth of gas into your car without ever thinking about it.  Right now, we need you to help fuel our effort to restore sound money, one state at a time.  We can't fly to your state and testify unless we can buy an airplane ticket.  Your $50 gets us up into the air, another $200 helps us land, $75 puts us up for the night.

"Your $100 contribution will pay for about three seconds of animated video or about one second of cinematic video"the kind of material that people like to share. The kind of material that can "go viral." Like ending Prohibition, or now the War on Drugs, the key to change is enough getting enough people made enough to make a change.

"Would you help us? Please go to http://goldstandardinstitute.us/?page-id=817 And thank you for hearing me out, and helping. " Keith Weiner"

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
23-Apr-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,194.40 7.50 0.63%
Silver, $/oz 15.82 0.03 0.21%
Gold/Silver Ratio 75.480 0.317 0.42%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0132 -0.0001 -0.42%
Platinum 1,136.20 -22.10 -1.91%
Palladium 769.60 -18.65 -2.37%
S&P 500 2,112.93 4.97 0.24%
Dow 18,058.69 20.42 0.11%
Dow in GOLD $s 312.55 -1.62 -0.52%
Dow in GOLD oz 15.12 -0.08 -0.52%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,141.22 -1.09 -0.10%
US Dollar Index 95.00 0.04 0.04%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,193.10      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,220.54 1,234.86 1,234.86
1/2 AE 0.50 607.97 629.36 1,258.72
1/4 AE 0.25 306.97 320.65 1,282.58
1/10 AE 0.10 125.17 130.64 1,306.44
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,163.63 1,172.63 1,196.32
British sovereign 0.24 282.96 295.96 1,257.27
French 20 franc 0.19 224.42 228.42 1,223.47
Krugerrand 1.00 1,205.03 1,215.03 1,215.03
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,201.10 1,217.10 1,217.10
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 686.03 626.38 1,252.76
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 304.24 319.15 1,276.62
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 126.47 130.05 1,300.48
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,425.46 1,436.46 1,191.39
.9999 bar 1.00 1,197.28 1,205.10 1,205.10
SPOT SILVER: 15.85      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 23.00 26.00 33.99
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 18.50 21.00 27.45
90% silver coin bags 0.72 11,865.43 12,222.93 17.10
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,482.53 4,632.53 15.70
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,574.50 1,624.50 16.25
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 157.45 162.95 16.30
1 oz .999 round 1.00 15.95 16.45 16.45
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 17.35 18.20 18.20
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,136.20      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,151.20 1,181.20 1,181.20
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

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