The Moneychanger
Weekly Commentary
Friday, 24 April a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive
Here's the weekly scorecard:
  17-Apr-15 24-Apr-15 Change % Change
Silver, cents/oz. 1,622.10 1,563.50 -58.60 -3.6
Gold, dollars/oz. 1,202.90 1,175.20 -27.70 -2.3
Gold/silver ratio 74.157 75.165 1.008 1.4
Silver/gold ratio 0.0135 0.0133 -0.0002 -1.3
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$) 306.34 318.04 11.69 3.8
Dow in gold ounces 14.82 15.38 0.57 3.8
Dow in Silver ounces 1,098.96 1,156.41 57.44 5.2
Dow Industrials 17,826.30 18,080.44 254.14 1.4
S&P500 2,081.18 2,117.65 36.47 1.8
US dollar index 97.53 97.10 -0.43 -0.4
Platinum 1,166.80 1,120.40 -46.40 -4.0
Palladium 782.65 769.95 -12.70 -1.6

Hard week for silver & gold, but don't let stocks crow too quickly or loud. Dollar appears broken.

By a gnat's eyebrow the S&P500 made a new high today, but lo, you couldn't hear for the touts a-crowin'. Nasdaq Comp yesterday finally exceeded by pennies and small change its 2000 peak of the dot com bubble. Fifteen years to recover doesn't sound like braggin' rights to me, but mercy! I live so fur back in the woods we have to order sunshine from Sears & Roebuck. What do I know? I'm jes' suspicious cause the Dow and other indices ain't movin' too fast to new highs.

Here's a trick topping markets play that will skewer the naïve. They're plumb bulls because they've gotten aboard late and ridden a ways, then the market plainly is peaking, but they can't believe it. The market makes one last dying spurt, exceeds old highs or resistance lines, and the naive pile in -- just in time to watch the market dive down a manhole. That's the reason for that "market must exceed old high by 3%" rule.

I tell y'all that because here as April's clock is ticking away & we are about to enter the Season of Death for stocks ("Sell in May & go away," sez the proverb), after a more than 6 year uptrend, stocks are not going to extend their uptrend another year, or six years. And I know it's flat frustrating to be sitting there in gold & silver taking a beating, but don't make the worst mistake of all, climbing off one market turning up (gold & silver) for another turning down (stocks).

For all the talk of new highs, the Dow rose an embarrassing 21.75 (0.12%) to 18,080.44, a ways from the last high at 18,288. S&P500 did make a new high, rising 4.72 (0.22%) to 2,117.65 against its last high at 2,115.48. That's an achievement worthy of the Lilliputian armed forces.

Dow in gold is poking its head into the top gator jaw. Rose 1.68% to G$318.14 gold dollars (15.39 troy ounces). Dow in Silver hit its top gator jaw at S$1,495.03 silver dollars (1,156.31 oz). I told y'all this was going to vex your socks off and work on your shirt, too, so don't be surprised. DIS is at , DIG at

Best news today on this old Jonah day is the US dollar Index closed below the 50 day moving average (97.32) to confirm its downtrend. Today it lost 36 basis points (36%) and ended at 97.10. Watch 97.50 first.

Euro rose 0.45% to $1.0873 today, at last above its 20 DMA but beneath its 50 DMA still. In other words, it's a rally moving like that race between the tortoise and the snail.

Japanese yen rose 0.48% but remains rangebound at 84.05.

About 11:30 Eastern time somebody pushed gold over a cliff. Landed at $1,174.10, but was so bruised & beaten it barely crawled the rest of the day. Ended Comex (conveniently for the tape painters) down $19.20 (1.58%) to $1,175.20, near the low. Silver took a hit about the same time and plunged from 1580c to 1562c. Comex closed down 19.3 cents (1.2%) at 1563.6.

Y'all may think these theatrics are a big deal, but they're not. Clearly some deep-pocketed sellers came in, but this was all they could do. Y'all ought to have been around 12 April 2013 when gold fell from $1,580 to $1,480 in one day, then next day fell to $1,367. I was numb for a week -- seven days, count 'em.

Can silver & gold fall further? Of course they can, just like stocks may rise further, but the limit is in sight. Gold has to trade below $1,165 to break the bowl rounding formation, Nobody likes a $19.20 drop, but it doesn't wreck the charts and call for vastly lower prices. That's the difference between April 2015 and April 2013.

Silver dipped below that uptrend line from the December 2014 low -- not much, but below. I don't like that at all, and silver is tapping on the bottom of that bowl here,

Possess your souls in patience! You have ot pay a price for disbelieving a government lie, and there's never been a bigger lie hatched by any adder than central banking and fiat money. Reality is on our side.

On 24 April 1916 began the Easter Rising of Irish republicans against the British occupation in Dublin. England had ruled all of Ireland for 300 years, and the thought of an independent Ireland was unthinkable. Five years later it was a reality.

On 24 April 1877 the last federal occupation troops were withdrawn from the South (New Orleans). By my count that's 12 years. That's one thing that makes Southerners differ from other Americans: we're the only ones who have been beaten in a war and occupied by a foreign army. That's bound to change your outlook some.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
24-Apr-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,194.40 -19.20 -1.6
Silver, $/oz 15.82 -0.19 -1.2
Gold/Silver Ratio 75.480 -1.204 -1.6
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0132 -0.0002 -1.2
Platinum 1,120.40 -15.80 -1.4
Palladium 769.95 0.35 0.0
S&P 500 2,112.93 4.97 0.2
Dow 18,080.44 21.75 0.1
Dow in GOLD $s 312.92 5.35 1.7
Dow in GOLD oz 15.14 0.26 1.7
Dow in SILVER oz 1,142.60 15.13 1.3
US Dollar Index 97.10 -0.36 -0.4
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,180.90      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,208.06 1,222.23 1,222.23
1/2 AE 0.50 601.75 622.92 1,245.85
1/4 AE 0.25 303.82 317.37 1,269.47
1/10 AE 0.10 123.89 129.31 1,293.09
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,151.73 1,160.73 1,184.18
British sovereign 0.24 280.07 293.07 1,244.98
French 20 franc 0.19 222.13 226.13 1,211.18
Krugerrand 1.00 1,192.71 1,202.71 1,202.71
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,188.90 1,204.90 1,204.90
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 679.02 619.97 1,239.95
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 301.13 315.89 1,263.56
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 125.18 128.72 1,287.18
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,410.88 1,421.88 1,179.30
.9999 bar 1.00 1,185.03 1,192.90 1,192.90
SPOT SILVER: 15.77      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 23.00 26.00 33.99
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 18.50 21.00 27.45
90% silver coin bags 0.72 11,883.30 12,240.80 17.12
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,460.40 4,610.40 15.63
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,567.00 1,617.00 16.17
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 156.70 162.20 16.22
1 oz .999 round 1.00 15.87 16.37 16.37
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 17.27 18.12 18.12
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,120.40      
Platinum Platypus 1.00 1,135.40 1,165.40 1,165.40
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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