The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Thursday, 21 May a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive

A friend pointed out to me something I overlooked yesterday in the story of the 5 megabanks fined for criminal market manipulation: the corporation didn't even pay the fine. The poor hapless stockholders are paying the fine, not the corporation or the corporate officers, even though the corporation writes the check, it comes out of the stockholders' pockets.

The corporation, and the perpetrators, got off scot-free.

Behold, what do you say about a market that spurts up and down all day, only to close a mere 0.34 higher? That was the Dow, after a high at 18,314.89 closing at 18,285.74. S&P500 closed at another new barely-high, up 4.97 (0.23%) to 2,130.82.

I say, "Triflin'."

Dow in silver hooked down 0.32% to end at S$1,377.75 (1,065.60 troy oz), about S$39 (30 oz) above its 200 DMA. Dow in gold jigged up 0.25% to G$313.38 (15.16 oz). When they come down, they'll come down hard. The jaws of the gator grind slow, but they grind exceeding fine.

Today 'twas almost as if the market looked at yesterday, shook its head, & moved the other way. US dollar index' backwards move yesterday was corrected with an 18 basis point (0.19%) tumble to 95.33. Most likely that signals the dollar's upward flight done run out of gas.

You got to walk a piece and sift a lot to find a currency as sorry & scared as the euro. Yesterday it spent the day below its 20 DMA, and although it rose 0.21% today to close at $1.1117, it's still down there. And below the uptrend line of what promised MIGHT be a rally. Nasty thing wants to sink more.

The Japanese yen smells no better. Yesterday it hit the bottom of it 6 month trading range, & today it stuck a nose out of its mouse hole but decided there might be too many cats to risk it. Rose 0.29% to 82.64.

Interest rates caught up, too. Yield on both the 10 year Treasury note & the 30 year bond fell, but both remain ABOVE their 200 DMAs.

WTIC rose 3.27% to $60.68. It waked through its uptrend line two weeks ago, but so far has refused to stay below its 20 DMA. Copper rose 0.78% today to $2.85, but it broke down through its 200 DMA three days ago, & is destined for lower things.

Trading in the tightest range, silver rose 1.9 cents (0.11%) to 1711.1 when Comex closed. Gold fell $4.50 (0.4%) to $1,204.40.

Silver ranged today from 1716c to 1700c, while gold traded from $1,200.8 to $1,212.40 -- mighty tight ranges. That leads me to suspect finely balanced buying & selling pressure. Something will happen to push them over the edge, up or down. So far they're clinging to that 1700c and $1,200 support.

The Gold/US dollar index spread gapped down three days ago, but landed on the 20 DMA and has hunkered there. That 20 DMA coincides with the uptrend line, so it shows an intact rally from mid-April with a correction from the May high. The MACD may be flashing a warning of imminent cracking through the uptrend line, but only "may be." Take a look,

Today was simply inconclusive. Silver & gold didn't break down, but neither did they rise. Holding on here is strong, but when you are a market in a downtrend, everybody doubts your word. Be patient.

I understand that many of you watch the world falling apart -- common decency & morality dying, rule of law dead, lies triumphant, & government at all levels strutting toward a police state -- and you nearly despair. Let me encourage you with this whisper: don't give up! Whether you know them or not, America is still full of people -- very quiet people, now -- who continue in freedom to pursue their dreams and the truth. I see it most often in alternative medicine, but in many other fields as well there are geniuses, national treasures, and quacks, but every one as free as New Hampshire's motto: "Live free, or die!"

Call it what you will, that world, that network, that mindset is still alive and well, & keeps the world working. Look for those folks, and you can not only find them, you can join them -- and rejoice. The free state survives.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
21-May-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,204.40 -4.50 -0.37%
Silver, $/oz 17.11 0.02 0.11%
Gold/Silver Ratio 70.387 -0.342 -0.48%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0142 0.0001 0.49%
Platinum 1,141.50 -4.30 -0.38%
Palladium 776.10 -0.75 -0.10%
S&P 500 2,130.82 4.97 0.23%
Dow 18,285.74 0.34 0.00%
Dow in GOLD $s 313.85 1.17 0.38%
Dow in GOLD oz 15.18 0.06 0.38%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,068.65 -1.17 -0.11%
US Dollar Index 95.33 -0.18 -0.19%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,205.10      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,232.82 1,247.28 1,247.28
1/2 AE 0.50 614.09 635.69 1,271.38
1/4 AE 0.25 310.06 323.87 1,295.48
1/10 AE 0.10 126.43 131.96 1,319.58
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,174.15 1,183.15 1,207.05
British sovereign 0.24 285.81 298.81 1,269.36
French 20 franc 0.19 226.68 230.68 1,235.56
Krugerrand 1.00 1,218.36 1,228.36 1,228.36
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,213.10 1,229.10 1,229.10
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 692.93 632.68 1,265.36
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 307.30 322.36 1,289.46
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 127.74 131.36 1,313.56
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,442.70 1,453.70 1,205.69
.9999 bar 1.00 1,209.32 1,217.10 1,217.10
SPOT SILVER: 17.12      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 23.00 26.00 33.99
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 18.50 21.00 27.45
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,777.05 13,134.55 18.37
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,858.65 5,008.65 16.98
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,702.00 1,752.00 17.52
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 170.20 175.70 17.57
1 oz .999 round 1.00 17.22 17.72 17.72
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 18.62 19.47 19.47
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,141.50      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,156.50 1,186.50 1,186.50
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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