The Moneychanger
Weekly Commentary
Friday, 12 June a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive
Here's the weekly scorecard:
  5-Jun-15 12-Jul-15 Change % Change
Silver, cents/oz. 1,597.10 1,581.80 -15.30 -1.0
Gold, dollars/oz. 1,167.80 1,178.80 11.00 0.9
Gold/silver ratio 73.120 74.523 1.403 1.9
Silver/gold ratio 0.0137 0.0134 -0.0003 -1.9
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$) 315.96 313.88 -2.08 -0.7
Dow in gold ounces 15.28 15.18 -0.10 -0.7
Dow in Silver ounces 1,117.62 1,131.55 13.93 1.2
Dow Industrials 17,849.46 17,898.84 49.38 0.3
S&P500 2,092.83 2,094.11 1.28 0.1
US dollar index 96.36 94.99 -1.37 -1.4
Platinum 1,091.30 1,096.30 5.00 0.5
Palladium 750.40 738.15 -12.25 -1.6

Scorecard seems to gainsay what we suffered through this week, but there 'tis. Gold actually rose 0.9% while silver fell 1%, but in fact they didn't do much of anything. Stocks ended the week 50 points higher, after blasting up 280 points higher one day, then losing it all. US dollar index proved its intent to drop, & white metals contradicted each other.

The Greek government debt crisis overhangs all with shadows of gloom & dread. If Greece defaults, stocks will tank and bonds will rise, & the hurtin' will become gen'ral real quick. To make matters worse, there's an FOMC meeting next week hanging over the market like a wet blanket, too.

Hardly a varmint stirred in the currency markets today -- nobody wants to go home long or short anything, not know what might happen over the weekend with Greece. US dollar index rose four basis pointes to 94.99, ending the day a little lower than it began. Euro millimetered up 0.01% to $1.1260, while the yen rose 0.06% to 81.05. Greek default would cream the euro and boost the dollar.

Dow shot up 236.36 Wednesday on false rumors the Greek crisis was near settlement. Inertia shoved it up another 39 on Thursday, but today it lost 140.53 (0.78%) to 17,898.84 -- back near where it began the week.

Let me say it again: stocks are rolling over. Downward. Toward earth's core.

Dow in gold hooked down this week, ended at G$313.80 gold dollars (15.18 oz). Dow in silver needed at S$1,462.37 silver dollars (1,131.05 oz). Just waiting for the gator jaws finally to snap shut.

Gold slipped $1.10 to $1,178.80 on Comex. Silver lost 13.5 cents to 1581.8c.

Today is a day that says nothing. No clue. Everybody's holding his breath over Greece. Whichever way it comes down it will occasion big moves at first. Not lasting moves, of course, because nothing will be fixed, nothing will be changed, only the banks will be fed. It's like that movie Groundhog Day where we are doomed to replay these crises over and over and over. Difference is, in the real world here there's no enlightenment, no purgation, no redemption, only the eternal tapeworm, back every morning to feed on us anew.

Gold/silver ratio ended at 74.523, it's highest level for this move. Could go higher.

Right now, we are just enduring. Taking every blow and walking on down the road, because you can't lie down and die. Silver & gold will come back: the central banks and governments guarantee it, because they never learn and never change.

15 June marks the 800th anniversary of the signing of Magna Carta, the foundation of English liberty. The barons forced King John to guarantee certain liberties, among them freedom for the church, freedom from illegal imprisonment, speedy justice, & freedom to travel. Most of those the US government has usurped. If you don't believe me, you try to drive home tonight without a permission from some government. If they pull you over and you don't have it, you'll find out johnny-quick-smart that you have no "right" to travel. And don't tell me you don't have a "driver's license." Remember, a "License" is a "permission to do something that would otherwise be against the law." They've made us all serfs, but it's okay: we all have cell phones.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
12-Jun-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,178.80 -1.10 -0.1
Silver, $/oz 15.82 -0.14 -0.8
Gold/Silver Ratio 74.523 -0.063 -0.1
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0134 -0.0001 -0.8
Platinum 1,096.30 -8.40 -0.8
Palladium 738.15 -4.45 -0.6
S&P 500 2,094.11 -14.75 -0.7
Dow 17,898.84 -140.53 -0.8
Dow in GOLD $s 313.88 -2.14 -0.7
Dow in GOLD oz 15.18 -0.10 -0.7
Dow in SILVER oz 1,131.55 0.77 0.1
US Dollar Index 94.99 0.04 0.0
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,179.90      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,214.12 1,221.20 1,221.20
1/2 AE 0.50 601.24 622.40 1,244.79
1/4 AE 0.25 303.57 317.10 1,268.39
1/10 AE 0.10 123.78 129.20 1,291.99
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,149.60 1,158.60 1,182.00
British sovereign 0.24 279.83 292.83 1,243.97
French 20 franc 0.19 221.94 225.94 1,210.17
Krugerrand 1.00 1,195.24 1,205.24 1,205.24
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,187.90 1,203.90 1,203.90
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 678.44 619.45 1,238.90
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 300.87 315.62 1,262.49
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 125.07 128.61 1,286.09
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,411.11 1,422.11 1,179.49
.9999 bar 1.00 1,184.03 1,191.90 1,191.90
SPOT SILVER: 15.88      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 23.00 26.00 33.99
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 18.50 21.00 27.45
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,104.95 12,462.45 17.43
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,492.85 4,642.85 15.74
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,578.00 1,628.00 16.28
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 157.80 163.30 16.33
1 oz .999 round 1.00 15.98 16.48 16.48
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 17.38 18.23 18.23
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,096.30      
Platinum Platypus 1.00 1,111.30 1,141.30 1,141.30
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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