The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Monday, 22 June a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive

Yes, I am a pre-electronic relic, & I still cling to the belief that wisdom lives in simple proverbs, such as "Watch what they do, not what they say." Cutting through all the persiflage, camouflage, and hogwash, people will ACT on what they TRULY believe, never mind what they say. They talk to confuse & distract you from what they are doing. In the case of the Fed, most people miss their shell game because most people speak to convey information. The Fed speaks only to convey DISinformation.

But watch what they do, not what they say. Mama Janet SEZ the economy is improving & things are getting better, but just like the Wizard of Oz -- which itself was an allegory about the gold standard controversy -- "Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain!" They don't want you to see that the great wizardess and wizards are in fact wizened, feckless academic charlatans pushing smoke bellows, pulling thunder-ropes, & throwing lightning switches, all to convince you that nothing truly is something. If the economy were as strong as they claim, why wouldn't they turn interest rates loose? The question answers itself. Watch what they do.

Could a commonwealth could sink lower than to be ruled by such ridiculous, despicable people and institutions?

Meanwhile, back on the Euro-stage all the actors played out their parts: Greece the recalcitrant but sincere debtor, Germany the dour, righteous, & solvent householder, the IMF clueless bureaucrats, the ECB clueless central banking bureaucrats, and the rest of the players simply clueless. Not even folks whose taste riseth no higher than soap operas could buy this stuff.

As the excuse for gold's fall & silver's rise, the tame financial media adjusted its pretty dog-collar and opined the cause was a brightening outlook for a Greek solution. Let me say with the least scatological vulgarity possible, Hogwash! I don't believe it. How will a solution in Greece help American stocks? Most American investors couldn't find Greece on a map if it were the only colored country, and a greater proportion care not a dried Kalamata olive for its financial outlook. Tell that one to any hicks who might believe it.

The chronically suspicious, like me, long taught to be suspicious, might look for the Invisible Hand of Government behind this price action, Nice Government Men from the European & US central banks whacking gold's head lest it runaway and spook a financial panic. Let us pretend, citizens, that all's well in the world.

On the other hand, a radio story about Greeks withdrawing all the cash out of their accounts on Fridays and re-depositing it on Mondays shows the Greeks' real genius at identifying Hogwash. They know governments always throw surprise parties, like grabbing your bank deposits, over the weekend, so the Greeks choose not to play.

Maybe some of y'all 'Murricuns ought to follow suit, get two or three months' green paper money cash needs in a safe in your house, take delivery of all your gold and silver, & generally take yourselves OUT of the grip of the financial system. Most 'Murricuns, unhappily, believe whatever lie their gummint is peddling today.

But what do I know? I'm jes' a nat'ral born durned fool from Tennessee, too blamed stupid to distinguishate betwixt a lie and Adam's off ox. I ain't near as clever as them gummint men.

STOCKS today rose, making back about what they lost on Friday, much like your mudbound car spinning its wheels & throwing mud up on your suit and shiny shoes.

Dow rose 103.83 (0.58%) to 18,119.78 after falling 99.89 on Friday. S&P500 added 12.8 (0.61%) to 2,122.85. Even my jaundiced eye can see that both stand above their 20 & 50 day moving averages, staging a little rally that may even post new all-time high which will be a meaningless as fins on a 1957 Dodge (can't swim and don't float). Still, they are rising, & the myth goeth forth.

To set that against the proper backdrop, the Dow in gold rose again today to touch its upper gator jaw at G$316.28 (15.3 oz), the last in a series of impotent jigs & jags that stretch back to March, illustrating only stocks powerlessness to make value headway against metals.

Dow in Silver flatlined today, closing S$1,451.34 silver dollars (1,122.52 oz). Like the Dow in gold, the DiS is rolling over slowly.

US dollar index added 29 basis points (0.31%) & closed 94.56. Lo, life is replete with ambiguities! You ask your wife how she likes your haircut and she says, "Fine," but you don't know whether that means "fine" or "Why have you been hanging out with the Sioux, haven't you heard of Custer?" So 'tis with the US dollar index. Last week it plunged to a new intraday low for the move at 93.30, but now is trying to crack the essential support line above about 94.50. Presently the trend is down, but a close above 95.10 would change that.

But wait? Why would the US dollar draw a safe-haven bid (from the Greek debacle) when gold, the ultimate hedge, supposedly lost its safe-haven bid? Investors also dumped US treasuries, as yields rose. It's enough confusion for a corkball game for 4 year olds.

Euro lost 0.25% to $1.1336 and yen lost 0,55% to 81.06. Below 82.30 the yen has no future, and below $1.1500 the euro convinces no one.

Talk about confusion! Gold lost $17.80 (1.5%) to $1,183.70 on Comex while silver GAINED 3.3 cents to 1613.7c. Durned if I can tease cause & effect out of that.

Gold last Thursday hit its 2-standard deviation Bollinger Band, shouting a loud signal it was turning around. Today it plunged beneath its 20 & 50 DMAs plumb back to its little June uptrend line. Okay, so it went up & nearly touched its 200 DMA, then reeled back at the thought of that impudence. Standard for any market, but it's not broken. A close tomorrow below $1,180 would put it in danger of falling, but a close below $1,174 would ensure it.

Since this June rise began -- I can't call it a rally, but both metals have persistently trended up -- silver has lagged gold. Thursday it hit its 50 DMA and fainted. Why today would silver best gold? I haven't a clue. Might be a one day fluke, might be the Nice Government Men concentrating on gold & overlooking silver. Regardless, silver's MACD is within a gnat's eyebrow of turning up, the ROC & Full Stochastic and RSI already have turned up -- nothing nuclear, but up. Then in the late aftermarket silver is trading up at 1622c.

I could scratch my head till I was bald and couldn't tell y'all why this happened. I will, however, offer the opinion that it speaks good things to come for silver & gold.

SPECIAL OFFERS: Take advantage of the gold price drop! Spot gold basis for these offers is $1,183.70.


Maple Leaves are 99.99% pure & the Canadians advertise this as an advantage. However, there's a reason that historically, gold coins have been only 90% or 91.7% pure: pure gold is so soft that it scratches & scars easily, so I often have to discount incoming Maple Leaves, I have three lots of eight each with full gold content, but a few bag marks from striking other coins. Usual premium would be 5.9%, but I'm offering these at a 3.5% premium. Gold is gold. One lot of Eight (8) One troy ounce gold Maple Leaves costs $1,225.25 each plus $35 shipping or $9,807.00 grand total. Three lots only.


Thanks to France's world wide empire & the Latin Monetary Union the twenty franc gold coin is one of the world's commonest. I'm overstocked on French and Swiss 20 francs, so am willing to discount them just a little. These are mostly French, mostly Rooster type, with a few Napoleon III & a few Swiss, so you'll get mixed types. Premium over gold content at retail right now is about 8%. I'll sell these coins at 6.2% premium till stock is gone.

One lot is Ten (10) French or Swiss twenty francs at $234.70 each, or $2,347.00 total plus $35 shipping for a grand total of $2,382.00. Ten coins contain 1.8670 troy ounce fine gold. Twenty lots only.

Special Conditions:

First come, first served, and no re-orders at these prices. I will write orders based on the time I receive your e-mail.

Sorry, we will not take orders for less than the minimum shown above.

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Your email must include your complete name, address, & phone number. We cannot ship to you without your address. Sorry, we cannot ship outside the United States or to Tennessee.

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Want your order faster? Send a bank wire, but that's not required. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, you'll see your order in about one month if you send a check.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
22-Jun-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,183.70 -17.80 -1.48%
Silver, $/oz 16.14 0.03 0.20%
Gold/Silver Ratio 73.353 -1.256 -1.68%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0136 0.0002 1.71%
Platinum 1,060.30 -26.20 -2.41%
Palladium 695.40 -11.95 -1.69%
S&P 500 2,122.85 12.80 0.61%
Dow 18,119.78 103.83 0.58%
Dow in GOLD $s 316.44 6.47 2.09%
Dow in GOLD oz 15.31 0.31 2.09%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,122.87 4.15 0.37%
US Dollar Index 94.56 0.29 0.31%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,186.10      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,219.31 1,227.61 1,227.61
1/2 AE 0.50 604.40 625.67 1,251.34
1/4 AE 0.25 305.16 318.76 1,275.06
1/10 AE 0.10 124.44 129.88 1,298.78
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,155.64 1,164.64 1,188.17
British sovereign 0.24 281.30 294.30 1,250.22
French 20 franc 0.19 223.11 227.11 1,216.42
Krugerrand 1.00 1,200.33 1,210.33 1,210.33
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,194.10 1,210.10 1,210.10
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 682.01 622.70 1,245.41
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 302.46 317.28 1,269.13
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 125.73 129.28 1,292.85
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,418.52 1,429.52 1,185.64
.9999 bar 1.00 1,190.25 1,198.10 1,198.10
SPOT SILVER: 16.22      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 23.00 26.00 33.99
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 18.50 21.00 27.45
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,455.30 12,812.80 17.92
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,593.15 4,743.15 16.08
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,612.00 1,662.00 16.62
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 161.20 166.70 16.67
1 oz .999 round 1.00 16.32 16.82 16.82
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 17.72 18.57 18.57
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,060.30      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,075.30 1,105.30 1,105.30
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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