The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Wednesday, 1 July a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive

Day after the Greek default the world did not come to a halt. Business continues as normal, or as normal as it can in this utterly abnormal fantasy world of central banking.

US stocks took that and rumors of a Greek resolution (O, how long must we listen to such things?) as occasion to rise, up 122.90 (0.7%) for a Dow at 17,742.41. S&P500 also gained 12.,93 (0.63%) to 2,076.04.

Give the Dow credit, it did close back above its 200 DMA (17,684). This is not, however, particularly inspiring, like saying the wolfman would be good looking if he weren't growing hair under his eyes and on his forehead.

What ought to interest us is the US dollar index rising 85 basis points (0.89%) to 96.51. This brings it back to the 96.50 resistance zone, from which it was slapped silly on Monday. It has come right back. Hard for me to fathom that the Dollar will not rise from here, unless that fits not the schemes & nefarious plans of the central banking criminals. A close tomorrow above 96.50 will mark a breakout. Euro dropped 0.75% today to $1.1054. Sick. Yen lost 0.56% to 81.19.

Gold lost $2.50 and closed Comex at $1,169.00. Silver added an irrelevant half cent to 1555.6. That was on a nothing 19 cent range. Ratio fell slightly to 75.148:1.

If boldness and brass does not right now characterize gold & silver, neither does cringing & cowardice. Hanging over the cliff's edge, both stubbornly refuse to obey gravity. Silver's low yesterday was 1544c, today 1550c. Silver is standing on resistance. One step too big backwards and it tumbles.

Gold is trading in a slightly downsloping channel with the bottom line about $1,165 tomorrow. Maximum downside risk (according to my opinion) is about $1,130.

On 1 July 1690 The Battle of the Boyne in Ireland ended the hopes of James II (Stewart) to remain England's king. He was beaten by William III, late of Holland, whom parliament had invited to take the crown. It was the victory that made permanent parliament's supremacy won in the Glorious Revolution of 1688.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
1-Jul-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,169.00 -2.50 -0.21%
Silver, $/oz 15.56 0.01 0.03%
Gold/Silver Ratio 75.148 -0.185 -0.25%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0133 0.0000 0.25%
Platinum 1,086.90 8.30 0.77%
Palladium 700.20 28.55 4.25%
S&P 500 2,076.04 12.93 0.63%
Dow 17,742.41 122.90 0.70%
Dow in GOLD $s 313.74 2.84 0.91%
Dow in GOLD oz 15.18 0.14 0.91%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,140.55 7.54 0.67%
US Dollar Index 96.51 0.85 0.89%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,167.80      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,201.67 1,208.67 1,208.67
1/2 AE 0.50 595.07 616.01 1,232.03
1/4 AE 0.25 300.45 313.85 1,255.39
1/10 AE 0.10 122.51 127.87 1,278.74
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,138.95 1,147.95 1,171.14
British sovereign 0.24 276.96 289.96 1,231.78
French 20 franc 0.19 219.66 223.66 1,197.98
Krugerrand 1.00 1,182.98 1,192.98 1,192.98
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,175.80 1,191.80 1,191.80
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 671.49 613.10 1,226.19
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 297.79 312.39 1,249.55
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 123.79 127.29 1,272.90
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,400.86 1,411.86 1,170.99
.9999 bar 1.00 1,171.89 1,179.80 1,179.80
SPOT SILVER: 15.52      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 23.00 26.00 33.99
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 18.50 21.00 27.45
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,415.98 12,773.48 17.87
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,385.18 4,535.18 15.37
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,541.50 1,591.50 15.92
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 154.15 159.65 15.97
1 oz .999 round 1.00 15.62 16.12 16.12
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 17.02 17.87 17.87
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,086.90      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,101.90 1,131.90 1,131.90
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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