The Moneychanger
Weekly Commentary
Thursday, 2 July a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive
Here's the weekly scorecard:
  25-Jun-15 2-Jul-15 Change % Change
Silver, cents/oz. 1,580.80 1,553.70 -27.10 -1.7
Gold, dollars/oz. 1,171.50 1,163.00 -8.50 -0.7
Gold/silver ratio 74.108 74.854 0.746 1.0
Silver/gold ratio 0.0135 0.0134 -0.0001 -1.0
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$) 315.69 315.15 -0.54 -0.2
Dow in gold ounces 15.27 15.25 -0.03 -0.2
Dow in Silver ounces 1,131.73 1,141.15 9.43 0.8
Dow Industrials 17,890.36 17,730.11 -160.25 -0.9
S&P500 2,102.31 2,076.78 -25.53 -1.2
US dollar index 95.39 95.29 -0.10 -0.1
Platinum 1,084.40 1,083.60 -0.80 -0.1
Palladium 679.15 693.15 14.00 2.1

Before I address markets, there's an article y'all need to read: "An Inadvertent Warning from BlackRock -- Get Your Money Out of Mutual Funds ASAP." You'll find it here on,

In brief, Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock (world's largest asset manager), has filed with the SEC seeking permission to allow some of BlackRock's funds to lend to others in the event of a "dysfunctional market." Ask yourself this question: Why do people build fire escapes? Because they fear -- maybe expect -- a fire. All this screams that Fink is expecting (1) a financial crisis and (2) an ensuing run on mutual funds, or if not "expecting," then "preparing for."

Be advised, Mushrooms, that Wall Street & all its tentacles down to the Fed on the Potomac view you only as a cow to be milked. If you are crushed in a stampede, so what? Therefore, you and only you can protect yourself. And to pile yet another metaphor on those I have already heaped up, there's only one way to stay out of a bar fight: leave the bar before the fight starts.

When stocks begin coming down, sometime between now and say, end-September, they will lose 20% in the first cascade. That will only mark the beginning. When the stock bubble bursts, the bond bubble will burst, too, so there's not much safety in that direction. Best way to protect yourself would be to roll stock profits into silver or gold now, while they are low, but if that stinks too much of "radical" to you, at least protect yourself by getting out of stocks & mutual funds and into cash.

But what do I know? I ain't no mor'n a barefut, rag-britches, nat'ral born durned fool from Tennessee.


All heads are low, peeking out above the trenches, waiting to see what will happen now that Greece has officially defaulted. So far, nothing much has happened, but Greece will hold a referendum to see whether they will accede to the Eurocrats terms or not. They'd be better off if their government would simply default on ALL the debt, walk away, and begin minting silver & gold coins. In two years, Greece's economy would be the envy of the world. But, sigh, the fascism has struck its roots too deep, so all those hoping to keep on feeding off the state will keep on hoping, & voting, until all hits the wall.

Let's get upbeat here: How 'bout them stocks, huh? Dow Industrials lost only 27.8 (0.16%) today & ended at 17,730.11. 'Tis itching to bust through that 200 DMA (17,687). Will get scratched soon.

S&P500 shaved off 0.64 (0.03%) to 2,076.78. Nobody wants to trade much or carry big positions home over a holiday weekend.

Dow in Gold ended the week at G$314.62 gold dollars (15.22 troy oz). Came near to breaking down on Monday, but pulled up again. Only a matter of time till it falls through that 200 DMA at G$303.88 (14.70 tr oz). See

Dow in silver rose a little for the week, but dropped 0.99% today. Closed at $1,464.79 silver dollars (1,132.1 oz). Gonna drive you crazy waiting for it, but is rolling over toward earth's core.

Not sure what to make out of that US dollar index. Today it backed off 22 basis points (0.23%) and settled at 96.29. It needs a close above 96.60 to break out upside, but has to hold 93 to prevent a downside breakout. No telling with an even-sided triangle. Chart's at

Gold today lost another US$6.00 and closed Comex at $1,163.00. Silver peeled off 1.9 cents to 1553.7.

NO use pretending: nothing's happening. Sellers tried to drive gold down today about 9:30 but failed. Dropped as low as $1,155.80. Although it didn't stay down there, that's a new intraday low for the move and a bad sign. May see a spike low next week. Be locked & loaded for it.

Silver keeps hanging on around 1544c/1550c. More times it tests that line, more likely it is to fall through.

Gold/Silver Ratio fell today to 74.854:1 from yesterday's 75.148. Nothing significant yet, nothing proved, but it appears to have turned around.

We are now dead into the window for metals seasonal low. We ought to see that by the end of next week.

I reckon this commentary dissatisfies in numerous ways, but don't y'all shoot me. Markets are hanging fire, scared to do anything because no one knows which way the Greek fiasco will fall out. Add to that my suspicion -- only my base suspicion, mind you -- that the Nice Government Men have every reason during this crisis to make sure no stampede into the dollar or gold materializes.

Y'all enjoy your 4th of July holiday. Durned if I know what it's about any more. I used to think it was about honoring people who "dared to defend their rights" & would fight to the death for their liberty. I don't understand what liberty means today, unless it's freedom to maximize self-indulgence & the rest of the world be damned. I thought the beginning of liberty was self-control, durned outdated fool that I am.

But I'm not the least downcast, because truth always vindicates itself. I learned that from one of the greatest men North America ever produced, even though the cultural fascists are trying to make him an unperson now. I mean President Jefferson Davis, who said, "The principle for which we contend is bound to reassert itself, though it may be at another time, and in another form."

I'm waiting for another time.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
2-Jul-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,163.00 -6.00 -0.5
Silver, $/oz 15.54 -0.02 -0.1
Gold/Silver Ratio 74.854 -0.385 -0.5
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0134 -0.0000 -0.1
Platinum 1,083.60 -3.30 -0.3
Palladium 693.15 -7.05 -1.0
S&P 500 2,076.78 0.64 0.0
Dow 17,730.11 -27.80 -0.2
Dow in GOLD $s 315.14 1.16 0.4
Dow in GOLD oz 15.25 0.06 0.4
Dow in SILVER oz 1,141.15 -0.39 -0.0
US Dollar Index 96.29 -0.22 -0.2
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SPOT GOLD: 1,161.90      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,195.60 1,202.57 1,202.57
1/2 AE 0.50 592.06 612.90 1,225.80
1/4 AE 0.25 298.93 312.26 1,249.04
1/10 AE 0.10 121.89 127.23 1,272.28
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,133.20 1,142.20 1,165.27
British sovereign 0.24 275.56 288.56 1,225.84
French 20 franc 0.19 218.55 222.55 1,192.04
Krugerrand 1.00 1,175.84 1,185.84 1,185.84
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,169.90 1,185.90 1,185.90
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 668.09 610.00 1,220.00
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 296.28 310.81 1,243.23
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 123.16 126.65 1,266.47
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,393.78 1,404.78 1,165.12
.9999 bar 1.00 1,165.97 1,173.90 1,173.90
SPOT SILVER: 15.54      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 23.00 26.00 33.99
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 18.50 21.00 27.45
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,216.49 12,573.99 17.59
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,391.37 4,541.37 15.39
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,543.60 1,593.60 15.94
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 154.36 159.86 15.99
1 oz .999 round 1.00 15.64 16.14 16.14
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 17.04 17.89 17.89
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,083.60      
Platinum Platypus 1.00 1,098.60 1,128.60 1,128.60
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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