The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Thursday, 9 July a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive

In the end, price answers every question in markets. Regardless how supply moves or who is buying or how much, if it doesn't show in the price, it means nothing. Well I remember 2008, when silver dropped to 880c and gold to $705, but you couldn't get ANY physical without an eight week delay. The physical silver market went to a 50% premium over the paper price. In other words, the paper price on Comex might have been 880c, but if you wanted physical in your hand, you paid 1320c and waited.

Precisely the same situation is creeping into silver now. On 30 June US 90% silver coin cost 220c/ounce over spot silver, and silver American Eagles 230c over. Today US 90% costs 285c over and silver Eagles 270c and the Mint has suspended deliveries. Once again as in 2008, physical silver is tugging against the paper price.

One thing scarier than a market cascading is a market that rallies & then lets go the gains. Dow today rallied nearly 250 points, but lost it all but 33.2 points to end up on 0.19% at 17,548.62. S&P500 playoud out the same role, holding on to only 4.63 points (0.23%) at 2,051.31. BOTH remain below their 200 DMA. Rolloverd downward is confirmed.

US dollar index rose 32 basis points (0.33%) to 96.79. Dollar index's reluctance to take off after a technical breakdown could be explained many ways, but Occam's Razor, which shaves mighty close, says the most obvious cause is the most likely, so point to the Nice Government Men. None of the central banks want a panic into the dollar.

I missed the yen yesterday, which hit 83.05, but it fell back 0.55% today to 82.39. It has now broken back up into the trading range it fell out of and is above its 20 & 50 DMAs. That's progress, I reckon.

Inflation markets, which had taken a beating earlier this week, appear perkier. Oil made the first half of a key reversal on Tuesday but failed to turn the key on Wednesday. Today it rose. It's a market to stay away from, likely to tumble more. Copper tumbled horribly on Monday & Tuesday, clean town to $2.38, then yesterday posted the first half of a key reversal and the second half today with a much higher (2.33%) close at $2.55. Mixed signals. Markets don't know whether the world's about to end or business will get betrter.

Silver rose 19.8 cents today to 1534.5c while gold fell $4.30 to $1,159.00.

Last three days silver has left a pretty tracery of spike down & two strong up days, but it still needs to CLOSE for two days above 1550c. Shortening physical supply (rising silver prices) whispers that buying pressure keeps pushing up the price.

Like silver, gold shows a plunge down followed by two up days. However, credibility does not return until it crosses $1,170 and stays there two days.

One last spike down would be a great place to buy.

Today South Carolina's republican governor signed a bill removing the Confederate flag from the capitol grounds. Republicans came south in 1861 robbing, raping, burning, & killing, & they have never stopped. They are perfectly happy to take part in annihilating Southern culture & the Southern people, & Democrats are happy to help them. As much respect as I have for South Carolina & my friends there, I am ashamed for them today. South Carolina has let lies crowd out the truth.

I

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
9-Jul-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,159.00 -4.30 -0.37%
Silver, $/oz 15.35 0.20 1.31%
Gold/Silver Ratio 75.529 -1.271 -1.66%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0132 0.0002 1.68%
Platinum 1,022.40 -5.00 -0.49%
Palladium 637.00 1.10 0.17%
S&P 500 2,051.31 4.63 0.23%
Dow 17,548.62 33.20 0.19%
Dow in GOLD $s 313.00 1.75 0.56%
Dow in GOLD oz 15.14 0.08 0.56%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,143.61 -12.76 -1.10%
US Dollar Index 96.79 0.32 0.33%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,158.60      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,194.52 1,199.15 1,199.15
1/2 AE 0.50 590.38 611.16 1,222.32
1/4 AE 0.25 298.08 311.37 1,245.50
1/10 AE 0.10 121.55 126.87 1,268.67
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,129.98 1,138.98 1,161.99
British sovereign 0.24 274.78 287.78 1,222.51
French 20 franc 0.19 217.93 221.93 1,188.71
Krugerrand 1.00 1,177.14 1,187.14 1,187.14
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,166.60 1,182.60 1,182.60
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 666.20 608.27 1,216.53
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 295.44 309.93 1,239.70
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 122.81 126.29 1,262.87
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,389.82 1,400.82 1,161.83
.9999 bar 1.00 1,162.66 1,170.60 1,170.60
SPOT SILVER: 15.34      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 23.00 26.00 33.99
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 18.50 21.00 27.45
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,648.35 13,005.85 18.19
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,333.55 4,483.55 15.20
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,524.00 1,574.00 15.74
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 152.40 157.90 15.79
1 oz .999 round 1.00 15.44 15.94 15.94
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 16.84 17.69 17.69
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,022.40      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,037.40 1,067.40 1,067.40
Home Questions & Answers Articles & Resources
The Moneychanger, P.O. Box 178, Westpoint, TN 38486
888-218-9226

Copyright Notice

© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

For complete details on how to buy from us or sell to us, please click here.