The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Thursday, 23 July a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive

It broke my heart this morning to learn that Dr. Nicholas Gonzalez passed away suddenly on 21 July 2015. As a medical student in the 1970s Nick investigated Dr. William Kelley's unorthodox therapy for cancer and was shown its astounding results. When he became a physician in his own right, Nick devoted his life to treating cancer using this therapy.

Nick was a faithful Christian man, utterly patient to teach me what he was doing, and why. He first graciously granted me an interview in August 1991, but I interviewed him several more times over the years. If I had cancer, I would use nothing but the therapy he has so successfully applied.

Nick was a national treasure that all men of good will should cherish. He was honest and fiercely valiant for the truth, heedless of any danger to himself. Nick lived and died free, utterly unintimidated by the world, ready to help everyone. It was an honour to know him. "Well done, good and faithful servant! Enter into the rest of your Lord." My God comfort his family, co-workers, and all who mourn his loss.

You will find my interview with Dr. Gonzalez, "Nutritional Cancer Therapy" at It is timeless.

Today's markets:

Gold rose $2.60 to $1,094.00 on Comex while silver scraped off 3.1 cents to 1468.3c. Gold/Silver Ratio rose 0.5% to 74.508 oz of silver to one of gold.

Not even a nat'ral born durned fool running his loose jawed mouth at top speed could find anything to say about that. Silver & gold are trading sideways, in a downward trend. Until they either break down further, or signal an undeniable reversal up, 'tain't nothing to say.

Metals need to post some sort of reversal day: a spike down with a higher close, or a big one-day jump. I doubt they'll sneak up off these lows.

True, the ratio did rise today, but yesterday it nearly touched the 50 day moving average below (73.45). Today it cut into the 20 DMA above (75.15), but closed well below it. So far it doesn't threaten to rise significantly.

Stocks took a big hit & have now erased all the gains of the last eight days. (I am manfully resisting the temptation to say those hateful words, "I told y'all so.") Dow Industrials lost 119.12 (0.67%) to close at 17,731.92. S&P500 stumbled 12 points (0.57%) to stop at 2,102.15. Dow has ducked under its 200 DMA (17,744) again, although the S&P 500 has only today closed below its 50 DMA (2,102) & remains way above its 2,063 200 DMA. Momentum indicators have rolled over away from heaven & toward the dirt.

US dollar index resumed its earthward flight today, losing 50 basis points to 97.23. This only breaks the short term uptrend & as yet says nothing about the intermediate trend. Euro rose 0.54% to $1.0986, but looks pukin' sick as a hound eatin' poisoned meat. It might be promising to turn up, but it has no more credit left than a politician, so will have to put some money on the table rather than promise. Yen keeps moving sideways to slightly higher. Up 0.075 today to 80.73.

West Texas Intermediate Crude broke down out of a flat bottomed triangle, but only 0.73% so far, to $48.85. Copper dropped 2.10% to a new low for the year at $2.36. Bloomberg Commodity Index dropped out of a falling right triangle, too, by about 1%.

On 23 July 1904 the first ice cream cone was allegedly created, during the St. Louis World's Fair.

On 28 June 1914 a Serbian nationalist assassinated the Austrian Archduke, Franz Ferdinand, and his wife Sophie. In the aftermath on 23 July 1914 the Austro-Hungarian Empire presented an ultimatum to Serbia that they must accept within 48 hours. This set the stage for the outbreak of World War I.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
23-Jul-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,094.00 2.60 0.24%
Silver, $/oz 14.68 -0.03 -0.21%
Gold/Silver Ratio 74.508 0.334 0.45%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0134 -0.0001 -0.45%
Platinum 982.80 1.20 0.12%
Palladium 616.85 -8.90 -1.42%
S&P 500 2,102.15 -12.00 -0.57%
Dow 17,731.92 -119.12 -0.67%
Dow in GOLD $s 335.06 -3.05 -0.90%
Dow in GOLD oz 16.21 -0.15 -0.90%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,207.65 -5.55 -0.46%
US Dollar Index 97.23 -0.50 -0.51%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,088.60      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,122.35 1,126.70 1,126.70
1/2 AE 0.50 554.68 574.24 1,148.47
1/4 AE 0.25 280.06 292.56 1,170.25
1/10 AE 0.10 114.20 119.20 1,192.02
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,059.58 1,068.58 1,090.16
British sovereign 0.24 258.18 271.18 1,151.99
French 20 franc 0.19 204.77 208.77 1,118.19
Krugerrand 1.00 1,108.19 1,118.19 1,118.19
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,096.60 1,112.60 1,112.60
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 625.95 571.52 1,143.03
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 277.59 291.20 1,164.80
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 115.39 118.66 1,186.57
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,305.85 1,316.85 1,092.19
.9999 bar 1.00 1,092.41 1,100.60 1,100.60
SPOT SILVER: 14.63      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 23.00 26.00 33.99
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 18.50 21.00 27.45
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,462.45 12,962.95 18.13
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,124.10 4,274.10 14.49
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,453.00 1,503.00 15.03
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 145.30 150.80 15.08
1 oz .999 round 1.00 14.73 15.23 15.23
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 16.13 16.98 16.98
SPOT PLATINUM: 982.80      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 997.80 1,027.80 1,027.80
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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