The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Thursday, 30 July a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive

Since I got calls from five (5) people today who misunderstood what I wrote yesterday about swapping US 90% silver coin for bars, I clearly did not write clearly. Please forgive me. Only the US 90% silver coin has a high premium, & therefore can be swapped for 100 ounce bars or one ounce silver rounds for a gain in ounces. Here's what I SHOULD have written:

AN UNUSUAL OPPORTUNITY. The wholesale buy side premium on US 90% silver coin has risen so high that you can swap US 90% silver coin for 100 ounce silver bars (or one ounce silver rounds) & realize an 11% to 12.2% gain in silver ounces. Far as I know this is a "like-kind" exchange so not taxable, but ask your own tax daddy because I don't know sic-'em from come-here about no taxes. Be careful about doing this swap with any other dealer but us. I believe we are the only dealer in the country that charges commission on one side of the swap only, to increase your realized gain. You can also swap 90% silver coin for one ounce silver rounds, for a slightly smaller gain.

Warning: do not swap ALL of your 90% coin. Keep at least some of it because the higher premium may be a permanent structural change & not a transitory one. In other words, US90% may never get cheaper again. Call to inquire, (888) 218-9226.


Gold disappointed me today. I've been saying that gold can't close below $1,090 nor silver below 1440c for a rally to begin. Well, silver co-operated today but gold did not. Comex gold closed at 1,088.40, down $4.20. Comex silver lost 4.3 cents to 1469.1c.

But still, the best possible headline for gold appeared today: "Prepare for gold prices to plunge as low as $350." Exactly THAT sort of headline is what you want to see for an upward reversal, because it indicates that optimism for gold is historically low, pessimism historically high. You see headlines like that when all the sellers have sold. And how hard did this prediction hit gold? It dropped $4.20 (0.4%), but not even all that drop could be credited to the headline. Got to learn to think contrary to the mob.

In today's trading gold was driven below $1,092 with a huge fall about 3:00 a.m. Eastern time -- right, while most of the world was closed and the market very thin. It tumbled to $1,082.75, climbed back above $1,086, went sideways until 10:00 a.m., then began to rise, steadily, to $1,095 at 1:00 p.m. Rest of the day it settled back beneath $1,090.

Does that wreck my outlook? Partly, and partly not. Gold left behind a very plain double bottom at $1,082.75. Mayhap I set my boundary a little too high. We'll see tomorrow. Time is working against silver & gold. The longer they stay down here, the greater the chance they will fall off again.

Silver, I hasten to point out, did not break. It held on just fine above a 1462c low.

US dollar index is back on the radar with a breakout today from its downtrend. Gained 62 basis points to 97.69. Unless it can fly above its last high at 98.31, it is only faking a rally.

Euro fell 0.47% to $1.0933, back below its 20 day moving average. That thing couldn't pour a rally out of a boot with directions on the heel.

Yen broke down again today, losing 0.17% to 80.54. This pierces the little uptrend line it was working off the early June low. More downside coming.

Stocks ran slap out of gas today. Dow lost 5.41 (0.03%) to 17,745.98. S&P500 rose 0.06 to 2,108.63. Dow remains below its 200 DMA. S&P500 has climbed back above its 20 & 50 DMAs. Big obstacle comes about 2,120, the downtrend line from the May high. Even moving higher tomorrow won't change my outlook on stocks. A big plunge is coming. Cataract. Waterfall. Put on your rainsuit.

The proof that Planned Parenthood has been selling aborted fetuses prompted a friend to remind me than in my 1986 novel, Heiland, I predicted the traffic in body parts. Planned Parenthood's callous and venal brutality grieves me unspeakably. It calls out to heaven for God's judgement.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
30-Jul-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,088.40 -4.20 -0.38%
Silver, $/oz 14.69 -0.04 -0.29%
Gold/Silver Ratio 74.086 -0.069 -0.09%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0135 0.0000 0.09%
Platinum 988.60 4.20 0.43%
Palladium 620.05 5.45 0.89%
S&P 500 2,108.63 0.06 0.00%
Dow 17,745.98 -5.41 -0.03%
Dow in GOLD $s 337.05 1.19 0.36%
Dow in GOLD oz 16.30 0.06 0.36%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,207.95 3.16 0.26%
US Dollar Index 97.69 0.62 0.64%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,087.80      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,121.52 1,125.87 1,125.87
1/2 AE 0.50 554.27 573.81 1,147.63
1/4 AE 0.25 279.85 292.35 1,169.39
1/10 AE 0.10 114.11 119.11 1,191.14
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,058.80 1,067.80 1,089.37
British sovereign 0.24 257.99 270.99 1,151.18
French 20 franc 0.19 204.62 208.62 1,117.38
Krugerrand 1.00 1,109.56 1,119.56 1,119.56
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,095.80 1,111.80 1,111.80
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 625.49 571.10 1,142.19
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 277.39 290.99 1,163.95
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 115.31 118.57 1,185.70
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,304.89 1,315.89 1,091.39
.9999 bar 1.00 1,091.61 1,099.80 1,099.80
SPOT SILVER: 14.71      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 23.00 26.00 33.99
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 18.50 21.00 27.45
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,516.08 12,873.58 18.01
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,146.23 4,296.23 14.56
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,460.50 1,510.50 15.11
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 146.05 151.55 15.16
1 oz .999 round 1.00 14.81 15.31 15.31
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 16.21 17.06 17.06
SPOT PLATINUM: 988.60      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,003.60 1,033.60 1,033.60
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

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