The Moneychanger
Weekly Commentary
Friday, 31 July a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive
Here's the weekly scorecard:
  24-Jul-15 31-Jul-15 Change % Change
Silver, cents/oz. 1,447.70 1,474.60 26.90 1.9
Gold, dollars/oz. 1,085.60 1,094.90 9.30 0.9
Gold/silver ratio 74.988 74.251 -0.737 -1.0
Silver/gold ratio 0.0133 0.0135 0.0001 1.0
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$) 334.54 333.99 -0.55 -0.2
Dow in gold ounces 16.18 16.16 -0.03 -0.2
Dow in Silver ounces 1,213.55 1,199.64 -13.91 -1.1
Dow Industrials 17,568.53 17,689.86 121.33 0.7
S&P500 2,079.65 2,103.84 24.19 1.2
US dollar index 97.35 97.44 0.09 0.1
Platinum 982.40 984.00 1.60 0.2
Palladium 621.60 610.35 -11.25 -1.8

We need to revisit often that mountain where we have a broad view of the road. Without that frequent reminder, we risk losing our road among the trees. One of the best mountaintop views is a speech Alexander Solzhenitsyn gave in 1983, "Men Have Forgotten God." He exactly captures what has happened to the West, and shows the only road out. Read it at Read it more than once.

THIS WEEK silver & gold actually rose, yes, rose. The US dollar index gained 9 basis points, close enough to flat to call it flat. After a vicious 5 day losing streak, stocks rebounded, but began losing ground again yesterday.

US dollar looked like a cartoon character today that runs into a wall, then melts down it. Dollar index at one point was down to 96.39, way below the 20 day moving average, and clean to the last low. Something/somebody pounded it on the head with a ballpeen hammer about 8:30 and down it went. Managed to climb back through the day, but closed 25 basis points (0.26%) lower at 97.44. Lots of nervous players in that market here on the last day of the month. Since it technically closed above the downtrend line, the trend remains up, but that smear on the chart looks dreadful. See it here,

Matching the dollar performance, the Euro shot up through its 20 then its 450 DMA, only to close the day back beneath the 20 DMA. Sorry as gully dirt, even if it did rise 0.45% to $1.0983. Yen also reversed yesterday's breakdown through the uptrend line. Weird going on with currencies. Maybe Nice Government Men getting antsy about a higher dollar?

Stocks ended the week higher and the month higher, barely, but are rolling over noticeably in a rounding top. Lose 600 points-make back 300 points is not a recipe for advancement. Dow today lost 56.12 (0.32%) to 17,689.86 after stalling yesterday. S&P500 gave up 4.79 (0.23%) to 2,103.84. Dow remains below 200 DMA, bad juju like those drums beating way back in the jungle in one of those old Johnny Weissmuller Tarzan movies. S&P500 diverges from the down since it is considerably higher than its 200 DMA (2,104 vs.. 2068.27) and above its 50 & 20 DMAs. Whoppin' crash coming.

Dow in gold dropped 0.96% today to 16.16 oz, and has left behind a series of lower highs. One lower low and the downtrend is complete. Behaving just as it ought if silver & gold have made a bottom and stocks turned down against gold.

Dow in Silver dropped 0.72% today to 1,198.50 oz, and also shows a series of dropping peaks. Other indicators have all turned down.

Silver today added 5.5 cents to 1474.6c on Comex. Gold picked up $6.50 to $1,094.9.

Since the big drop on 20 July gold has spent 9 days moving sideways in a range between $1,080 and $1,104. Middle of that period gold dipped down to an intraday low of $1,072.30 but closed the day higher at $1,098.

Today gold actually eroded down to a slightly lower low than yesterday's $1,082.50, namely $1,080.25 about 9:30. Buyers were waiting to pounce and drove gold clean up to $1,103.65 by 11:15. It backed off and spent the rest of the day twirling around $1,095. Call today a double bottom with yesterday. If so, gold needs not to dip lower than $1,085 and needs to climb sharply out of this pit. "Sharply" means crossing $1,104 Monday & pressing on towards $1,040 as fast as it's skinny little yellow legs will carry it.

What about silver? Where are you, honey?

Today silver traded down to 1455.5 cents about 9:00, then shot skyward like a mortar, hit 1501c & bounced off. Backed off the rest of the day to a low about 1470c. This leaves a double bottom with the low on Monday. Yes, yes, yes.

On the daily chart here, you can see silver & the rounding bottom it has formed. Today at its high it hit the 20 DMA -- good. Milestones ahead of silver are first, 1500c, then quickly 1550 & higher. Both silver & gold are set up for a hearty rally. Remember those commitment of traders show large specs short & commercials barely short, exceptionably favorable for both metals.

Gold's MACD has almost turned up, silver's has. Gold's RSI overbought condition has nearly been worked off. If silver & gold don't start climbing next week, I don't know when they will.

I bought silver & gold this week. After that headline claiming gold would sink to $350, y'all ought to buy some, too.

Premium on US 90% coin is very high now, so high you can swap it for 100 oz bars and end with about 12% more silver. Call us at (888) 218-9226.

One thing I am all in favor of is gun control. Here's a link to a pastor who knows all about my kind of gun control. Go watch it, I dare you:

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
31-Jul-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,094.90 6.50 0.6
Silver, $/oz 14.75 0.06 0.4
Gold/Silver Ratio 74.251 0.438 0.6
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0135 0.0000 0.4
Platinum 984.00 -4.60 -0.5
Palladium 610.35 -9.70 -1.6
S&P 500 2,103.84 -9.70 -0.5
Dow 17,689.86 -56.12 -0.3
Dow in GOLD $s 333.99 -3.03 -0.9
Dow in GOLD oz 16.16 -0.15 -0.9
Dow in SILVER oz 1,199.64 -8.31 -0.7
US Dollar Index 97.44 -0.25 -0.3
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,094.70      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,130.83 1,133.01 1,133.01
1/2 AE 0.50 557.79 577.45 1,154.91
1/4 AE 0.25 281.63 294.20 1,176.80
1/10 AE 0.10 114.84 119.87 1,198.70
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,065.51 1,074.51 1,096.22
British sovereign 0.24 259.63 272.63 1,158.14
French 20 franc 0.19 205.91 209.91 1,124.33
Krugerrand 1.00 1,116.59 1,126.59 1,126.59
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,102.70 1,118.70 1,118.70
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 629.45 574.72 1,149.44
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 279.15 292.83 1,171.33
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 116.04 119.32 1,193.22
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,313.17 1,324.17 1,098.26
.9999 bar 1.00 1,098.53 1,106.70 1,106.70
SPOT SILVER: 14.72      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 23.00 26.00 33.99
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 18.50 21.00 27.45
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,562.55 12,920.05 18.07
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,150.65 4,300.65 14.58
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,462.00 1,512.00 15.12
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 146.20 151.70 15.17
1 oz .999 round 1.00 14.82 15.32 15.32
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 16.22 17.07 17.07
SPOT PLATINUM: 984.00      
Platinum Platypus 1.00 999.00 1,029.00 1,029.00
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

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