The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Thursday, 6 August a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive

Dear Friends, I'm sorry I missed y'all Tuesday (our internet was out everywhere) and last night (I was finishing my monthly Moneychanger for paid subscribers), but I am back, and dangerous as ever, exercising my one & only gift, Stating the Obvious. Hey, don't laugh. In a Land of Liars & Obfuscators, mine is no mean gift.

Quick note about my encouragement on Monday for y'all to get a cash (green paper money) reserve enough to support your family for three months -- and NOT to keep it in a bank. My blood ran cold when I read the JP Morgan Chase safe deposit contract a subscriber sent yesterday. As a deposit box holder, you have no rights & they can empty your box for numerous reasons, including "legal process" or order of a governmental agency. You are not allowed to store currency in the box. It goes on and on. Now I'm a nat'ral born durn fool from Tennessee & ready to fight with a bank at the drop of a hat (and I'll drop the hat), but y'all better listen: when/if banks close, cash in a safe deposit box will do you no more good than swim fins on Poland China hog. Put your emergency fund someplace it is safe & you have 24 hour/7 day access.


Yesterday the US dollar index made a picture perfect downward reversal exactly with an intraday high almost exactly at the intraday high of the last high. Durn, that's one confusing sentence. Try this: On 29 July the Dollar Index' intraday high was 98.31. Next day it broke plumb down. It fell 5 days to 96.36, then began climbing. Yesterday high was 98.335, & today it dropped 13 basis points to 97.91. Looks like a double top. Shucks, y'all go look,

Most everything hangs on this Dollar Index. Should it drop from here and make a lower low than 96.36 (last low), it cancels the chance that the dollar will rise further. If it rises through 98.33, then the "dollar will keep rising" outcome is on. What happens to the dollar will affect silver & gold either like cholera or vitamin C.

Euro rose 0.19 to $1.0924 but that changes nothing, just the yen 0.11% higher at 80.18 says nothing.

How 'bout them stocks? Flying like a cast-ahrn ayrplayne. Dow plunged 120.72 (0.69%) to 17,419.75 and the S&P500 fell even more, 16.28 (0.78% to 2,083.56.

Mercy! Dow made a new intraday low at 17363! Stands way below its 200 DMA (17800) & below 17,400 will test its wings to see how many feathers it loses in a head down tornado. S&P500 hovers above its 200 DMA at 2,072.56, about 10 points below today's close, a small move from here.

YEEE-HAAAAH! Dow in gold crossed below its 200 DMA today, closing at 16 oz against the 20 DMA at 16.03. Yes, yes. All indicators point unequivocally down.

Dow in silver closed at 1,191.09 oz, also below its 20 DMA (1,200). Both the Dow in Silver & Dow in Gold are within a gnat's eyebrow of breaking their uptrend lines.

Y'all hang with me here, hang with me. Truth is the daughter of Time, & I think Time is pregnant.

Gold rose $4.50 to $1,090.20 and silver rose 12.4 cents to 1467c. All this does is move them up closer to the top of the range, but it ain't so bad, really. The Gold/Silver Ratio plunged 1.05% to 74.319. Listen, y'all, on 7 July the ratio made an intraday high at 77.95. Today it closed Comex at 74.319. It's in a well-established downtrend. Look at the chart,

Yet still no clear reversal signal from silver & gold. Gold has formed a pennant & is running out of time. Must break one way or th'other soon. Silver has drawn out a range from 1500c to 1425c. We need some signal that removes all doubt. For starters, gold must hold $1,180 and silver 1425c. Up above, gold must break through $1,105 resistance & silver through 1500c. Actually gold needs a close above $1,094 first.

My outlook & feelings have been swinging back & forth like a German Shepherd trying to watch the ball at a tennis match. I try to wring that out of what I write, but I'm as easy to read as 28 point type. Yesterday silver & gold looked puke-green puny. With the dollar turning around yesterday & following through downside today and with silver & gold perkier today and stocks skidding, everything looks rosier. I got to throttle back & be patient. Reality is on our side, so we can afford to be patient.

John Whitehead of the Rutherford Institute has written a spendid article, "They Live, We Sleep: A Dictatorship Disguised as a Democracy." He gets it all almost right, but misses when he avers that we are almost a fascist state. Not almost, but already, since the New Deal at least. But y'all read it yourselves, Might open your eyes a little, but be careful! Let in a little light & you might see more than you want.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
6-Aug-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,090.20 4.50 0.41%
Silver, $/oz 14.67 0.12 0.85%
Gold/Silver Ratio 74.315 -0.324 -0.43%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0135 0.0001 0.44%
Platinum 950.50 5.10 0.54%
Palladium 592.50 6.80 1.16%
S&P 500 2,083.56 -16.28 -0.78%
Dow 17,419.75 -120.72 -0.69%
Dow in GOLD $s 330.30 -3.67 -1.10%
Dow in GOLD oz 15.98 -0.18 -1.10%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,187.44 -18.42 -1.53%
US Dollar Index 97.91 -0.13 -0.13%
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SPOT GOLD: 1,089.20      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,121.88 1,127.32 1,127.32
1/2 AE 0.50 554.98 574.55 1,149.11
1/4 AE 0.25 280.21 292.72 1,170.89
1/10 AE 0.10 114.26 119.27 1,192.67
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,060.16 1,069.16 1,090.76
British sovereign 0.24 258.32 271.32 1,152.59
French 20 franc 0.19 204.88 208.88 1,118.79
Krugerrand 1.00 1,109.89 1,119.89 1,119.89
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,099.20 1,113.20 1,113.20
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 626.29 571.83 1,143.66
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 277.75 291.36 1,165.44
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 115.46 118.72 1,187.23
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,306.57 1,317.57 1,092.79
.9999 bar 1.00 1,093.01 1,101.20 1,101.20
SPOT SILVER: 14.65      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 25.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 20.00 22.00 28.76
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,544.68 12,902.18 18.05
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,128.53 4,278.53 14.50
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,489.50 1,514.50 15.15
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 147.95 152.95 15.30
1 oz .999 round 1.00 14.75 15.21 15.21
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 16.15 17.65 17.65
SPOT PLATINUM: 950.50      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 965.50 995.50 995.50
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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